The voting has opened, and the future of what Roy Jenkins used to call the radical centre is about to be decided. Who will be the next Lib Dem leader? Acting co-leader and former Coalition cabinet minister the Right Honourable Sir Ed Davey, the bookies favourite? Or Layla Moran, the clean skin who only entered parliament in 2017, is the education spokesperson and the first (openly) pansexual member of the Commons? If Liberal Democrats were still deciding their leadership under the system that the old Liberal Party once used, with only MPs choosing, then Sir Ed Davey would by now be the person chosen to rebuild their fortunes. Davey has secured the nominations of five of the partys 11 MPs and, assuming hed vote for himself, would thus already be safely ensconced as the heir to Gladstone, HH Asquith, David Lloyd George, and Tim Farron.

As it happens Sir Ed also enjoys the majority of nominations among the wider party membership (around 60 per cent, or 1,870 if those who did so, from 330 parties) and a solid backing around the partys Establishment, including Jane Ashdown (widow of Paddy), Lord (Ming) Campbell, and Baroness (Sarah) Lunsford. The last two party leaders, Jo Swinson (who lost her own seat last year and prompted the leadership contest), and Sir Vince Cable are keeping schtum about their preferences, and no one mentions Sir Nick Clegg these days, maybe not even visiting his Facebook page.

But though the odds are on Ed, the partys 120,000 or so members are an independent-minded, sometimes cussed bunch capable of springing a surprise, and propelling the 37-year-old Ms Moran into the leadership, as when Chris Huhne (almost) beat Clegg in 2007 (an intriguing what if). Moran isnt as popular at Westminster as Davey, but has a respectable 40 per cent share of the nominations of party members.

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Who will win the Liberal Democrats leadership race? - The Independent