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Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse.

There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer.

Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[43] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[44]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[45] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed]Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[49] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[50] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[51] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[51] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[51]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[52]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[53] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[54] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[55] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[56]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[57]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[58] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[59]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[60]A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[61]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[64]

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[65] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[66]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[67] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[68] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[69] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[70][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[71]Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[72]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[73] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[74] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[75]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[76][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to Mars,[77] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[78] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[79]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[80]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[81]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[82]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[83][84] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[85] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[86] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[87]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[88] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[89]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[90] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[91][92] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[93] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[94] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[95] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[96][97]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[98][99][100]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[91][101] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[102] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[103]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[104] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[105]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

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Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse.

There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to Mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

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Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Inspired from FutureTimeline.net and the Integrated Space Plan we have created a speculated timeline of human exploration and colonization of Mars. Predictions are based on a reasonably optimistic evaluation of technological and social progress of humanity. Only the most important and innovative events are mentioned. Timeline is regularly updated taking into account latest developments.Last update was made on 18th May, 2018.2010s The Mars hype is there2016 Elon Musk reveals SpaceX plans for the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS, formerly known as Mars Colonial Transporter).2016 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter enters Mars orbit, but Schiaparelli lander crashes on the surface of Mars.2017 Elon Musk updates SpaceX vision “to make life multiplanetary” and colonize Mars (with Big Falcon Rocket architecture, formerly known as Interplanetary Transport System or ITS).2018 NASA’s InSight lander lands on Mars at Elysium Planitia.2020s Preparing for human arrival2020 Through the Commercial Crew Program NASA awards several companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, to develop and build a lander/ascent vehicle(s) capable to land on the Moon and bring back to Lunar orbit at least 4 astronauts no later than 2028.2021 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars rover lands on Mars at Oxia Planum.2021 NASA’s Mars 2020 rover lands on Mars to collect samples for later retrieval. A small reconnaissance drone-helicopter accompanies the rover.2021 First Chinese orbiter, lander and rover reaches Mars.2021 United Arab Emirates Hope probe enters Mars orbit.2022 SpaceX’s BFR prototype booster and cargo spaceship makes first orbital test flight around Earth.2023 India’s Mangalyaan 2 orbiter and lander reaches Mars.2025 Japan&France’s Martian Moons Explorer lands on Phobos to collect samples and return them to Earth in 2029.2026 First SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship successfully tested.2026 A communications relay satellite is placed at Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L5 to overcome the problem of periodic communications blackout with spacecrafts temporary behind the Sun.2026 Core structure of international Lunar Orbital Gateway completed in Lunar orbit.2027 Two demonstration BFR cargo spaceships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human colony on Mars; both ships have a small nuclear power reactor in cargo and an automatic atmospheric propellant plant to produce oxygen and methane from Martian atmosphere.2027 NASA&ESA’s sample return orbiter (with broadband laser communications capability) and lander (with Mars ascent vehicle and a sample collection rover) reaches Mars to retrieve samples collected by Mars 2020 rover and launch them back to Earth.2028 Separated by several months SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship and Blue Origin’s and Lockheed Martin’s manned landers land on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to establish the first human outpost on the Moon.2028 After the ground tests are done in both places the final location of future “Mars City” is selected. Filled with local propellant the one BFR spaceship not on the selected location launches from Mars and successfully lands back on Earth the next year.2029 Two unmanned BFR spaceships land at the selected location of Mars City: a backup crew ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner/tunneling droids, solar panels and parts for a modular habitat for the first human mission.2030s First human base on Mars2030 Several basic landing pads prepared robotically at Mars City location for the human mission next year.2031 On a mission supported by NASA two SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceships with 12 astronauts each land at Mars City first humans on Mars. The crewed ships are accompanied with a few cargo ships, including one with machinery for a ground-based In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system.2031 The first modular habitat and a solar array is built.2032 After the best location is confirmed a small-scale mining of water ice starts near the Mars City base. Ground-based ISRU system with atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water, nitrogen, argon and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.2032 Several landing/launch pads for future BFR missions are built a few miles from Mars City base.2033 2 of the 3 landed BFR crew spaceships and all of the landed cargo spaceships, except the first one with nuclear power reactor and atmospheric propellant plant on-board, launch back to Earth unmanned.2033 2nd crew of ~30 astronauts and workers aboard a BFR spaceship lands at Mars City. NASA’s research Mars Surface Field Station is established at Mars City. A hydroponic greenhouse is built to provide Mars City with locally grown vegan food. “The Mars Society” establishes its first chapter on Mars :)2034 Small-scale Martian soil extraction, chemical separation and storage equipment is assembled; the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.2034 Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at Mars City and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.2035 First fully occupied BFR spaceship with 100 scientists and colonists lands at Mars City.2035 NASA’s Mars Surface Field Station is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).2036 First orbital fuel depot for hydrolox rocket engines completed at Low Earth orbit. The hydrogen and oxygen is provided from the Moon and Near Earth asteroids.2036 The ISRU capabilities of Mars City are extended not only to produce air, water and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement, basic fertilizers, plastics and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial size 3D printers are also assembled.2037 BFR spaceship with 100 human colonists and workers lands at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 200.2037 A constellation of satellites with global positioning system (GPS) and global communications system is placed in high orbit around Mars by BFR cargo spaceship. Now it’s hard to get lost on Mars; possibly only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.2038 Cyanobacteria is introduced into the ISRU processes of Mars City.2038 A fish farm is built at Mars City to provide more diverse local food for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.2039 A transparent, radiation-filtering geodesic dome with garden is built at Mars City; work begins to build a new underground section of Mars City with larger habitats and working areas to boost the population capacity of the colony to 1000.2039 First child is born on Mars at Mars City. His voyage to Earth later in his life would be dangerous because of his bones and organs not being fit for Earth’s gravity.2040s Mars gets its orbital space station2040 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 human colonists, workers and some wealthy tourists land at Mars City.2041 The new underground section of Mars City is finished. Now the colonists have a lot spacier living and working quarters with full radiation protection.2041 Cultured meat “farm” is built at Mars City, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of the colonists.2041 Virgin Galactic establishes the first luxury hotel at the outskirts of Mars City.2042 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 passengers land at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 500.2042 On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies Blue Origin’s manned spaceship reaches Mars orbit near Phobos with first modules for Free Spaceport of Phobos project which will be a space station with several spinning sections with Mars-level artificial gravity of 0.38g and serveas a way station and fuel&repairs depot for manned and unmanned spaceships heading for Mars, Main asteroid belt and beyond.2042 International human mission to Phobos and Deimos, operated by Blue Origin from Free Spaceport of Phobos construction place.2043 Several small proxy bases for scientific, mining and other purposes are established within a few tens of miles from Mars City.2043 First mass driver constructed on the Moon at Shackleton Crater’s base to launch harvested oxygen and hydrogen for storage at Lunar Orbital Gateway and fuel depot at Low Earth orbit.2044 First BFR Heavy spaceships with 300 passengers land at Mars City. Among them is SpaceX’s founder Elon Musk. BFR Heavy is an enlarged and upgraded version of BFR with a 15m core booster and a lot spacier living quarters for passengers.2045 Large deposit of minerals with high concentration of rare metals is discovered a few hundred miles from Mars City. A research Mining Base Beta is established.2045 Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and propellant needs of nearby Free Spaceport of Phobos.2045 A land trip all around the Mars is completed for the 1st time.2046 BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City bringing parts for a nuclear fusion reactor as well.2046 With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational. Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt now is rapidly expanding.2046 Blue Origin’s lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best location for Blue Mars base (in addition to Blue Origin’s already developed Blue Moon base).2047 The landing pads a few miles from Mars City where BFR crew and cargo spaceships has landed and taken off for two decades are transformed into a small spaceport with pressurized skybridges for both passengers and cargo.2047 A regular transport route between Mars City and Mining Base Beta is established.2048 A short hyperloop line from Mars City to its spaceport is finished.2048 Several BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City and another one with 100 (mostly miners) at the Mining Base Beta. The population of the Mars City now surpasses 1200 with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 200 at Mining Base Beta.2048 Blue Origin’s spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at Free Spaceport of Phobos; workers are shuttled down to establish the Blue Mars base about thousand miles from Mars City.2049 A nuclear fusion power station is operational at Mars City.2049 A new underground section of Mars City is finished, boosting its population capacity to 3000.2050s When bases grow into colonies2050 With increased electrical power the ISRU and industrial capabilities of Mars City are greatly extended, using the resources harvested and refined around Mars City and nearby proxy bases. Solar panel assembly factory is the first factory on Mars manufacturing complex products.2050 Earth and Mars is the closest ever since the beginning of the colonization. The largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at Mars City, 200 at Mining Base Beta and 100 at Blue Mars base.2051 Mass driver at human base in Sea of Tranquility on the Moon constructed to launch harvested helium-3 for usage in fusion power plants.2051 With China and Russia focusing on the Moon, India is the first Asian superpower to establish its own base on Mars.2052 International human mission to Ceres (flying with a new generation nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at Free Spaceport of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at Mars City and take additional crew members from Mars.2053 1500 colonists land at Mars City and Mining Base Beta and 150 at Blue Mars base. There are now more than 4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface of Mars.2053 At an impact crater near the Mars City work begins to build the first large-scale dome on Mars, covering the entire crater more than a mile across.2054 A deuterium separation facility becomes operational at Mars City.2055 As more colonists land at Mars City it reaches its maximum population capacity. More habitats are built at the outskirts of Mars City, at its proxy bases and Mining Base Beta to support the influx of colonists.2055 Several more Blue Origin’s shuttles land at Blue Mars base, boosting its population to more than 500. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.2055 Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor, China establishes its first colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.2056 The rover repair depot at Mars City is upgraded to a Tesla rover factory.2056 A regular transport route between Mars City and Blue Mars base is established.2056 The large-scale transparent, radiation-filtering, light-weight dome is finished and pressurized at Mars City, covering an area of more than one square mile; workers move in now to construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below the dome.2057 The new generation of SpaceX’s nuclear fusion powered spaceships arrive at the Free Spaceport of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of Mars City and Mining Base Beta. All the BFR family spaceships are retired from SpaceX fleet after 33 years of successful service and sold to Brazil.2058 Mars City’s dome is finished, having a maximum population capacity of 20’000.2058 A hyperloop line and a heavy cargo train tracks are built between the Mars City and the industrial complex at Mining Base Beta.2059 SpaceX’s nuclear spaceships take more colonists to Mars City, bringing its population to 7000.2059 First Brazilian BFR Heavy spaceship lands at Mars City. One of nearby proxy bases is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.2059 United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars the New Dubai.2060s Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars Mars City’s population reaches the level you can’t anymore made the decisions by corporate hierarchy or direct democracy only. First city council on Mars is elected. The expanded Free Spaceport of Phobos more and more serves as a space logistics hub not only for colonies on Mars but for mining activities in Main asteroid belt as well. Several more advanced nations begins participating in the spaceport project.Several more orbital space stations are completed for in-space manufacturing, tourism and other purposes. First humans born on Mars travel to Earth using exoskeletons as body-support because of Earths heavier gravity. Commercial companies from various nations open their branches and operations on Mars. Tourism from Earth is expanding on Mars. Although the trip is still expensive and only the rich can afford it. Besides its high-tech cities and bases Mars can offer spectacular safari rides and if you are really wealthy you can hire some of the guides to take you to the caldera of Olympus Mons, depths of Valles Marineris or other exclusive locations. A second large-scale dome on Mars is built at Blue Mars. A hyperloop line is built between Mars City and Blue Mars. First measures to start the terraforming process of Mars are made, powdering Martian polar ice caps with black lichen to reduce their albedo and melt the ice and building automatic halocarbon factories throughout Mars to produce and release super-greenhouse gases in Martian atmosphere. Artificial magnetic field generator is placed at Sun-Mars Lagrangian point L1 to shield Mars from solar radiation with the generated magnetotail and help the terraformation process of the planet. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to Galilean moons of Jupiter. Nuclear fusion powered spaceships (greatly reducing the travel time from Earth and widening the launch window) bring more colonists to Mars than ever before. In 2060s the human population on Mars explodes from less than 10’000 to more than 50’000 with Mars City alone having 25’000.2070s Human outposts spreading past Mars The Free Spaceport of Phobos is the main supply node for human outposts on Ceres, Vesta, Pallas, asteroids in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. Cyanobacteria and methanogens are spread in lower regions of Mars to further increase the terraformation process. The old workhorse of human colonization of Mars the BFR family spaceships are finally retired completely. The oldest of them are 50 years old now. Mars City is expanded with two more domes of similar size and several smaller ones. There are 5 cities with large-scale domes now on Mars. All of them are interlinked with hyperloop lines. The cluster of Indian colonies on Mars is starting to specialize on growing food for human space outposts in Main asteroid belt and beyond, as Mars is the closest object to them with substantial gravity for growing crops. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to the moons of Saturn (Titan, Enceladus and other). Now almost all of space-faring nations are represented on Mars with a base, a city block or a corporate enterprise. In 2070s the human population on Mars expands from 50’000 to 200’000 with the largest colony Mars City having 60’000. Four more cities have a population of more than 15’000.2080s Mars gets its self-government First Martian Council, consisting of proportionally drawn representatives from every Martian city and base, is assembled on the principle of self-government. The Council deals with the issues important for all of the Martians (as ongoing terraformation initiatives or building a space elevator) and acts as a representative for Martian population in relations with the corporations and governments of Earth. As space elevators first on the Moon and then on Earth become operational, the cost of launching any mass to Mars and elsewhere into space is slashed considerably, greatly speeding up the use of space resources and space colonization. Almost all colonists have left the oldest sections of Mars City with their obsolete infrastructure; the area is declared now a national heritage site, preserving the 1st human colony on Mars as it was in the late 2040s. Tourism from Earth is becoming more and more mainstream. Now even a middle-class people can afford a trip to Mars. Despite criticism China builds the first prison on Mars. Soon other colonies are quietly sending there their criminals too. More powerful halocarbon factories are set up throughout Mars. The bacterial and lichen coverage around Martian surface is further increased. Connected base stations for downward and outward space elevators on Phobos are built; work begins to build both space elevators. The downward elevator will cut short of the upper edge of Mars’s atmosphere with a shuttle platform at its tip. The outward elevator will have several platforms at different points to catch and release payloads (including spaceships) to Earth’s system, to Main asteroid belt and to Jupiter’s system. Work begins to build a large shuttle port at the summit of the Martian volcano practically on the equator Pavonis Mons for shuttles heading to and coming from Phobos space elevator. In 2080s the human population on Mars expands from 200’000 to 500’000 with the largest of the Martian cities Mars City surging past 150’000 inhabitants. Particularly large colonial fleet arrives on 2082 when Earth and Mars is the closest since 2003, only 55.9 million kilometers (34.7 million miles) apart.2090s The millionth Martian The Phobos space elevator system is finished, greatly speeding up the colonization of Mars, interplanetary trade and the growth of human outposts in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. The shuttle port at the summit of Pavonis Mons quickly expands into one of the largest human colonies on Mars Pavonis City, which is soon connected with other major Martian cities by hyperloop lines. Establishment of Pavonis City greatly speeds up tourism in some of the most spectacular Martian regions nearby Tharsis Montes, Olympus Mons, Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris. Tourist bases and hotels are popping up there fast. One of the hyperloop lines runs through all the length of Valles Marineris. In an anticipation of air pressure and temperature increase, new human colonies are being set up mainly in the lower regions of Mars, particularly Hellas Planitia and Valles Marineris, where the results of terraformation activities will be felt first. In 2090s the human population on Mars reaches 1 million. Finally Elon Musk’s goal to put 1 million people on Mars is reached.22nd century Mars becomes independent

Mars becomes practically self-sufficient, having to import only the most complex goods and intellectual property.

The self-sufficiency results in Mars becoming an independent nation-state. The Martian government has to buy up the non-Martian governmental assets located on Mars.

As a technologically advanced frontier society Mars and orbital stations around it become the primary source of specialists and workers needed for human bases and missions further in Main asteroid belt and outer Solar system.

Air pressure and temperature on Mars is increased to the level where there is flowing water on the surface and simple plants can be introduced into newly created biosphere of the planet.

As one of the lower regions on Mars close to the equator Valles Marineris is seeing the most benefits from terraformation activities and Phobos space elevator; cities and farming communities are spreading throughout the valleys and at the end of the 22nd century there are nearly 5 million people living in Valles Marineris. It’s the most populous urban area on Mars.

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human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse.

There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to Mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

Here is the original post:

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Inspired from FutureTimeline.net and the Integrated Space Plan we have created a speculated timeline of human exploration and colonization of Mars. Predictions are based on a reasonably optimistic evaluation of technological and social progress of humanity. Only the most important and innovative events are mentioned. Timeline is regularly updated taking into account latest developments.Last update was made on 18th May, 2018.2010s The Mars hype is there2016 Elon Musk reveals SpaceX plans for the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS, formerly known as Mars Colonial Transporter).2016 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter enters Mars orbit, but Schiaparelli lander crashes on the surface of Mars.2017 Elon Musk updates SpaceX vision “to make life multiplanetary” and colonize Mars (with Big Falcon Rocket architecture, formerly known as Interplanetary Transport System or ITS).2018 NASA’s InSight lander lands on Mars at Elysium Planitia.2020s Preparing for human arrival2020 Through the Commercial Crew Program NASA awards several companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, to develop and build a lander/ascent vehicle(s) capable to land on the Moon and bring back to Lunar orbit at least 4 astronauts no later than 2028.2021 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars rover lands on Mars at Oxia Planum.2021 NASA’s Mars 2020 rover lands on Mars to collect samples for later retrieval. A small reconnaissance drone-helicopter accompanies the rover.2021 First Chinese orbiter, lander and rover reaches Mars.2021 United Arab Emirates Hope probe enters Mars orbit.2022 SpaceX’s BFR prototype booster and cargo spaceship makes first orbital test flight around Earth.2023 India’s Mangalyaan 2 orbiter and lander reaches Mars.2025 Japan&France’s Martian Moons Explorer lands on Phobos to collect samples and return them to Earth in 2029.2026 First SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship successfully tested.2026 A communications relay satellite is placed at Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L5 to overcome the problem of periodic communications blackout with spacecrafts temporary behind the Sun.2026 Core structure of international Lunar Orbital Gateway completed in Lunar orbit.2027 Two demonstration BFR cargo spaceships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human colony on Mars; both ships have a small nuclear power reactor in cargo and an automatic atmospheric propellant plant to produce oxygen and methane from Martian atmosphere.2027 NASA&ESA’s sample return orbiter (with broadband laser communications capability) and lander (with Mars ascent vehicle and a sample collection rover) reaches Mars to retrieve samples collected by Mars 2020 rover and launch them back to Earth.2028 Separated by several months SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship and Blue Origin’s and Lockheed Martin’s manned landers land on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to establish the first human outpost on the Moon.2028 After the ground tests are done in both places the final location of future “Mars City” is selected. Filled with local propellant the one BFR spaceship not on the selected location launches from Mars and successfully lands back on Earth the next year.2029 Two unmanned BFR spaceships land at the selected location of Mars City: a backup crew ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner/tunneling droids, solar panels and parts for a modular habitat for the first human mission.2030s First human base on Mars2030 Several basic landing pads prepared robotically at Mars City location for the human mission next year.2031 On a mission supported by NASA two SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceships with 12 astronauts each land at Mars City first humans on Mars. The crewed ships are accompanied with a few cargo ships, including one with machinery for a ground-based In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system.2031 The first modular habitat and a solar array is built.2032 After the best location is confirmed a small-scale mining of water ice starts near the Mars City base. Ground-based ISRU system with atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water, nitrogen, argon and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.2032 Several landing/launch pads for future BFR missions are built a few miles from Mars City base.2033 2 of the 3 landed BFR crew spaceships and all of the landed cargo spaceships, except the first one with nuclear power reactor and atmospheric propellant plant on-board, launch back to Earth unmanned.2033 2nd crew of ~30 astronauts and workers aboard a BFR spaceship lands at Mars City. NASA’s research Mars Surface Field Station is established at Mars City. A hydroponic greenhouse is built to provide Mars City with locally grown vegan food. “The Mars Society” establishes its first chapter on Mars :)2034 Small-scale Martian soil extraction, chemical separation and storage equipment is assembled; the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.2034 Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at Mars City and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.2035 First fully occupied BFR spaceship with 100 scientists and colonists lands at Mars City.2035 NASA’s Mars Surface Field Station is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).2036 First orbital fuel depot for hydrolox rocket engines completed at Low Earth orbit. The hydrogen and oxygen is provided from the Moon and Near Earth asteroids.2036 The ISRU capabilities of Mars City are extended not only to produce air, water and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement, basic fertilizers, plastics and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial size 3D printers are also assembled.2037 BFR spaceship with 100 human colonists and workers lands at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 200.2037 A constellation of satellites with global positioning system (GPS) and global communications system is placed in high orbit around Mars by BFR cargo spaceship. Now it’s hard to get lost on Mars; possibly only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.2038 Cyanobacteria is introduced into the ISRU processes of Mars City.2038 A fish farm is built at Mars City to provide more diverse local food for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.2039 A transparent, radiation-filtering geodesic dome with garden is built at Mars City; work begins to build a new underground section of Mars City with larger habitats and working areas to boost the population capacity of the colony to 1000.2039 First child is born on Mars at Mars City. His voyage to Earth later in his life would be dangerous because of his bones and organs not being fit for Earth’s gravity.2040s Mars gets its orbital space station2040 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 human colonists, workers and some wealthy tourists land at Mars City.2041 The new underground section of Mars City is finished. Now the colonists have a lot spacier living and working quarters with full radiation protection.2041 Cultured meat “farm” is built at Mars City, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of the colonists.2041 Virgin Galactic establishes the first luxury hotel at the outskirts of Mars City.2042 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 passengers land at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 500.2042 On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies Blue Origin’s manned spaceship reaches Mars orbit near Phobos with first modules for Free Spaceport of Phobos project which will be a space station with several spinning sections with Mars-level artificial gravity of 0.38g and serveas a way station and fuel&repairs depot for manned and unmanned spaceships heading for Mars, Main asteroid belt and beyond.2042 International human mission to Phobos and Deimos, operated by Blue Origin from Free Spaceport of Phobos construction place.2043 Several small proxy bases for scientific, mining and other purposes are established within a few tens of miles from Mars City.2043 First mass driver constructed on the Moon at Shackleton Crater’s base to launch harvested oxygen and hydrogen for storage at Lunar Orbital Gateway and fuel depot at Low Earth orbit.2044 First BFR Heavy spaceships with 300 passengers land at Mars City. Among them is SpaceX’s founder Elon Musk. BFR Heavy is an enlarged and upgraded version of BFR with a 15m core booster and a lot spacier living quarters for passengers.2045 Large deposit of minerals with high concentration of rare metals is discovered a few hundred miles from Mars City. A research Mining Base Beta is established.2045 Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and propellant needs of nearby Free Spaceport of Phobos.2045 A land trip all around the Mars is completed for the 1st time.2046 BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City bringing parts for a nuclear fusion reactor as well.2046 With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational. Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt now is rapidly expanding.2046 Blue Origin’s lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best location for Blue Mars base (in addition to Blue Origin’s already developed Blue Moon base).2047 The landing pads a few miles from Mars City where BFR crew and cargo spaceships has landed and taken off for two decades are transformed into a small spaceport with pressurized skybridges for both passengers and cargo.2047 A regular transport route between Mars City and Mining Base Beta is established.2048 A short hyperloop line from Mars City to its spaceport is finished.2048 Several BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City and another one with 100 (mostly miners) at the Mining Base Beta. The population of the Mars City now surpasses 1200 with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 200 at Mining Base Beta.2048 Blue Origin’s spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at Free Spaceport of Phobos; workers are shuttled down to establish the Blue Mars base about thousand miles from Mars City.2049 A nuclear fusion power station is operational at Mars City.2049 A new underground section of Mars City is finished, boosting its population capacity to 3000.2050s When bases grow into colonies2050 With increased electrical power the ISRU and industrial capabilities of Mars City are greatly extended, using the resources harvested and refined around Mars City and nearby proxy bases. Solar panel assembly factory is the first factory on Mars manufacturing complex products.2050 Earth and Mars is the closest ever since the beginning of the colonization. The largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at Mars City, 200 at Mining Base Beta and 100 at Blue Mars base.2051 Mass driver at human base in Sea of Tranquility on the Moon constructed to launch harvested helium-3 for usage in fusion power plants.2051 With China and Russia focusing on the Moon, India is the first Asian superpower to establish its own base on Mars.2052 International human mission to Ceres (flying with a new generation nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at Free Spaceport of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at Mars City and take additional crew members from Mars.2053 1500 colonists land at Mars City and Mining Base Beta and 150 at Blue Mars base. There are now more than 4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface of Mars.2053 At an impact crater near the Mars City work begins to build the first large-scale dome on Mars, covering the entire crater more than a mile across.2054 A deuterium separation facility becomes operational at Mars City.2055 As more colonists land at Mars City it reaches its maximum population capacity. More habitats are built at the outskirts of Mars City, at its proxy bases and Mining Base Beta to support the influx of colonists.2055 Several more Blue Origin’s shuttles land at Blue Mars base, boosting its population to more than 500. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.2055 Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor, China establishes its first colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.2056 The rover repair depot at Mars City is upgraded to a Tesla rover factory.2056 A regular transport route between Mars City and Blue Mars base is established.2056 The large-scale transparent, radiation-filtering, light-weight dome is finished and pressurized at Mars City, covering an area of more than one square mile; workers move in now to construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below the dome.2057 The new generation of SpaceX’s nuclear fusion powered spaceships arrive at the Free Spaceport of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of Mars City and Mining Base Beta. All the BFR family spaceships are retired from SpaceX fleet after 33 years of successful service and sold to Brazil.2058 Mars City’s dome is finished, having a maximum population capacity of 20’000.2058 A hyperloop line and a heavy cargo train tracks are built between the Mars City and the industrial complex at Mining Base Beta.2059 SpaceX’s nuclear spaceships take more colonists to Mars City, bringing its population to 7000.2059 First Brazilian BFR Heavy spaceship lands at Mars City. One of nearby proxy bases is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.2059 United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars the New Dubai.2060s Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars Mars City’s population reaches the level you can’t anymore made the decisions by corporate hierarchy or direct democracy only. First city council on Mars is elected. The expanded Free Spaceport of Phobos more and more serves as a space logistics hub not only for colonies on Mars but for mining activities in Main asteroid belt as well. Several more advanced nations begins participating in the spaceport project.Several more orbital space stations are completed for in-space manufacturing, tourism and other purposes. First humans born on Mars travel to Earth using exoskeletons as body-support because of Earths heavier gravity. Commercial companies from various nations open their branches and operations on Mars. Tourism from Earth is expanding on Mars. Although the trip is still expensive and only the rich can afford it. Besides its high-tech cities and bases Mars can offer spectacular safari rides and if you are really wealthy you can hire some of the guides to take you to the caldera of Olympus Mons, depths of Valles Marineris or other exclusive locations. A second large-scale dome on Mars is built at Blue Mars. A hyperloop line is built between Mars City and Blue Mars. First measures to start the terraforming process of Mars are made, powdering Martian polar ice caps with black lichen to reduce their albedo and melt the ice and building automatic halocarbon factories throughout Mars to produce and release super-greenhouse gases in Martian atmosphere. Artificial magnetic field generator is placed at Sun-Mars Lagrangian point L1 to shield Mars from solar radiation with the generated magnetotail and help the terraformation process of the planet. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to Galilean moons of Jupiter. Nuclear fusion powered spaceships (greatly reducing the travel time from Earth and widening the launch window) bring more colonists to Mars than ever before. In 2060s the human population on Mars explodes from less than 10’000 to more than 50’000 with Mars City alone having 25’000.2070s Human outposts spreading past Mars The Free Spaceport of Phobos is the main supply node for human outposts on Ceres, Vesta, Pallas, asteroids in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. Cyanobacteria and methanogens are spread in lower regions of Mars to further increase the terraformation process. The old workhorse of human colonization of Mars the BFR family spaceships are finally retired completely. The oldest of them are 50 years old now. Mars City is expanded with two more domes of similar size and several smaller ones. There are 5 cities with large-scale domes now on Mars. All of them are interlinked with hyperloop lines. The cluster of Indian colonies on Mars is starting to specialize on growing food for human space outposts in Main asteroid belt and beyond, as Mars is the closest object to them with substantial gravity for growing crops. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to the moons of Saturn (Titan, Enceladus and other). Now almost all of space-faring nations are represented on Mars with a base, a city block or a corporate enterprise. In 2070s the human population on Mars expands from 50’000 to 200’000 with the largest colony Mars City having 60’000. Four more cities have a population of more than 15’000.2080s Mars gets its self-government First Martian Council, consisting of proportionally drawn representatives from every Martian city and base, is assembled on the principle of self-government. The Council deals with the issues important for all of the Martians (as ongoing terraformation initiatives or building a space elevator) and acts as a representative for Martian population in relations with the corporations and governments of Earth. As space elevators first on the Moon and then on Earth become operational, the cost of launching any mass to Mars and elsewhere into space is slashed considerably, greatly speeding up the use of space resources and space colonization. Almost all colonists have left the oldest sections of Mars City with their obsolete infrastructure; the area is declared now a national heritage site, preserving the 1st human colony on Mars as it was in the late 2040s. Tourism from Earth is becoming more and more mainstream. Now even a middle-class people can afford a trip to Mars. Despite criticism China builds the first prison on Mars. Soon other colonies are quietly sending there their criminals too. More powerful halocarbon factories are set up throughout Mars. The bacterial and lichen coverage around Martian surface is further increased. Connected base stations for downward and outward space elevators on Phobos are built; work begins to build both space elevators. The downward elevator will cut short of the upper edge of Mars’s atmosphere with a shuttle platform at its tip. The outward elevator will have several platforms at different points to catch and release payloads (including spaceships) to Earth’s system, to Main asteroid belt and to Jupiter’s system. Work begins to build a large shuttle port at the summit of the Martian volcano practically on the equator Pavonis Mons for shuttles heading to and coming from Phobos space elevator. In 2080s the human population on Mars expands from 200’000 to 500’000 with the largest of the Martian cities Mars City surging past 150’000 inhabitants. Particularly large colonial fleet arrives on 2082 when Earth and Mars is the closest since 2003, only 55.9 million kilometers (34.7 million miles) apart.2090s The millionth Martian The Phobos space elevator system is finished, greatly speeding up the colonization of Mars, interplanetary trade and the growth of human outposts in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. The shuttle port at the summit of Pavonis Mons quickly expands into one of the largest human colonies on Mars Pavonis City, which is soon connected with other major Martian cities by hyperloop lines. Establishment of Pavonis City greatly speeds up tourism in some of the most spectacular Martian regions nearby Tharsis Montes, Olympus Mons, Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris. Tourist bases and hotels are popping up there fast. One of the hyperloop lines runs through all the length of Valles Marineris. In an anticipation of air pressure and temperature increase, new human colonies are being set up mainly in the lower regions of Mars, particularly Hellas Planitia and Valles Marineris, where the results of terraformation activities will be felt first. In 2090s the human population on Mars reaches 1 million. Finally Elon Musk’s goal to put 1 million people on Mars is reached.22nd century Mars becomes independent

Mars becomes practically self-sufficient, having to import only the most complex goods and intellectual property.

The self-sufficiency results in Mars becoming an independent nation-state. The Martian government has to buy up the non-Martian governmental assets located on Mars.

As a technologically advanced frontier society Mars and orbital stations around it become the primary source of specialists and workers needed for human bases and missions further in Main asteroid belt and outer Solar system.

Air pressure and temperature on Mars is increased to the level where there is flowing water on the surface and simple plants can be introduced into newly created biosphere of the planet.

As one of the lower regions on Mars close to the equator Valles Marineris is seeing the most benefits from terraformation activities and Phobos space elevator; cities and farming communities are spreading throughout the valleys and at the end of the 22nd century there are nearly 5 million people living in Valles Marineris. It’s the most populous urban area on Mars.

Outdated cover images:

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human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse.

There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to Mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

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Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Inspired from FutureTimeline.net and the Integrated Space Plan we have created a speculated timeline of human exploration and colonization of Mars. Predictions are based on a reasonably optimistic evaluation of technological and social progress of humanity. Only the most important and innovative events are mentioned. Timeline is regularly updated taking into account latest developments.Last update was made on 18th May, 2018.2010s The Mars hype is there2016 Elon Musk reveals SpaceX plans for the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS, formerly known as Mars Colonial Transporter).2016 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter enters Mars orbit, but Schiaparelli lander crashes on the surface of Mars.2017 Elon Musk updates SpaceX vision “to make life multiplanetary” and colonize Mars (with Big Falcon Rocket architecture, formerly known as Interplanetary Transport System or ITS).2018 NASA’s InSight lander lands on Mars at Elysium Planitia.2020s Preparing for human arrival2020 Through the Commercial Crew Program NASA awards several companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, to develop and build a lander/ascent vehicle(s) capable to land on the Moon and bring back to Lunar orbit at least 4 astronauts no later than 2028.2021 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars rover lands on Mars at Oxia Planum.2021 NASA’s Mars 2020 rover lands on Mars to collect samples for later retrieval. A small reconnaissance drone-helicopter accompanies the rover.2021 First Chinese orbiter, lander and rover reaches Mars.2021 United Arab Emirates Hope probe enters Mars orbit.2022 SpaceX’s BFR prototype booster and cargo spaceship makes first orbital test flight around Earth.2023 India’s Mangalyaan 2 orbiter and lander reaches Mars.2025 Japan&France’s Martian Moons Explorer lands on Phobos to collect samples and return them to Earth in 2029.2026 First SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship successfully tested.2026 A communications relay satellite is placed at Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L5 to overcome the problem of periodic communications blackout with spacecrafts temporary behind the Sun.2026 Core structure of international Lunar Orbital Gateway completed in Lunar orbit.2027 Two demonstration BFR cargo spaceships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human colony on Mars; both ships have a small nuclear power reactor in cargo and an automatic atmospheric propellant plant to produce oxygen and methane from Martian atmosphere.2027 NASA&ESA’s sample return orbiter (with broadband laser communications capability) and lander (with Mars ascent vehicle and a sample collection rover) reaches Mars to retrieve samples collected by Mars 2020 rover and launch them back to Earth.2028 Separated by several months SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship and Blue Origin’s and Lockheed Martin’s manned landers land on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to establish the first human outpost on the Moon.2028 After the ground tests are done in both places the final location of future “Mars City” is selected. Filled with local propellant the one BFR spaceship not on the selected location launches from Mars and successfully lands back on Earth the next year.2029 Two unmanned BFR spaceships land at the selected location of Mars City: a backup crew ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner/tunneling droids, solar panels and parts for a modular habitat for the first human mission.2030s First human base on Mars2030 Several basic landing pads prepared robotically at Mars City location for the human mission next year.2031 On a mission supported by NASA two SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceships with 12 astronauts each land at Mars City first humans on Mars. The crewed ships are accompanied with a few cargo ships, including one with machinery for a ground-based In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system.2031 The first modular habitat and a solar array is built.2032 After the best location is confirmed a small-scale mining of water ice starts near the Mars City base. Ground-based ISRU system with atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water, nitrogen, argon and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.2032 Several landing/launch pads for future BFR missions are built a few miles from Mars City base.2033 2 of the 3 landed BFR crew spaceships and all of the landed cargo spaceships, except the first one with nuclear power reactor and atmospheric propellant plant on-board, launch back to Earth unmanned.2033 2nd crew of ~30 astronauts and workers aboard a BFR spaceship lands at Mars City. NASA’s research Mars Surface Field Station is established at Mars City. A hydroponic greenhouse is built to provide Mars City with locally grown vegan food. “The Mars Society” establishes its first chapter on Mars :)2034 Small-scale Martian soil extraction, chemical separation and storage equipment is assembled; the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.2034 Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at Mars City and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.2035 First fully occupied BFR spaceship with 100 scientists and colonists lands at Mars City.2035 NASA’s Mars Surface Field Station is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).2036 First orbital fuel depot for hydrolox rocket engines completed at Low Earth orbit. The hydrogen and oxygen is provided from the Moon and Near Earth asteroids.2036 The ISRU capabilities of Mars City are extended not only to produce air, water and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement, basic fertilizers, plastics and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial size 3D printers are also assembled.2037 BFR spaceship with 100 human colonists and workers lands at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 200.2037 A constellation of satellites with global positioning system (GPS) and global communications system is placed in high orbit around Mars by BFR cargo spaceship. Now it’s hard to get lost on Mars; possibly only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.2038 Cyanobacteria is introduced into the ISRU processes of Mars City.2038 A fish farm is built at Mars City to provide more diverse local food for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.2039 A transparent, radiation-filtering geodesic dome with garden is built at Mars City; work begins to build a new underground section of Mars City with larger habitats and working areas to boost the population capacity of the colony to 1000.2039 First child is born on Mars at Mars City. His voyage to Earth later in his life would be dangerous because of his bones and organs not being fit for Earth’s gravity.2040s Mars gets its orbital space station2040 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 human colonists, workers and some wealthy tourists land at Mars City.2041 The new underground section of Mars City is finished. Now the colonists have a lot spacier living and working quarters with full radiation protection.2041 Cultured meat “farm” is built at Mars City, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of the colonists.2041 Virgin Galactic establishes the first luxury hotel at the outskirts of Mars City.2042 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 passengers land at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 500.2042 On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies Blue Origin’s manned spaceship reaches Mars orbit near Phobos with first modules for Free Spaceport of Phobos project which will be a space station with several spinning sections with Mars-level artificial gravity of 0.38g and serveas a way station and fuel&repairs depot for manned and unmanned spaceships heading for Mars, Main asteroid belt and beyond.2042 International human mission to Phobos and Deimos, operated by Blue Origin from Free Spaceport of Phobos construction place.2043 Several small proxy bases for scientific, mining and other purposes are established within a few tens of miles from Mars City.2043 First mass driver constructed on the Moon at Shackleton Crater’s base to launch harvested oxygen and hydrogen for storage at Lunar Orbital Gateway and fuel depot at Low Earth orbit.2044 First BFR Heavy spaceships with 300 passengers land at Mars City. Among them is SpaceX’s founder Elon Musk. BFR Heavy is an enlarged and upgraded version of BFR with a 15m core booster and a lot spacier living quarters for passengers.2045 Large deposit of minerals with high concentration of rare metals is discovered a few hundred miles from Mars City. A research Mining Base Beta is established.2045 Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and propellant needs of nearby Free Spaceport of Phobos.2045 A land trip all around the Mars is completed for the 1st time.2046 BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City bringing parts for a nuclear fusion reactor as well.2046 With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational. Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt now is rapidly expanding.2046 Blue Origin’s lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best location for Blue Mars base (in addition to Blue Origin’s already developed Blue Moon base).2047 The landing pads a few miles from Mars City where BFR crew and cargo spaceships has landed and taken off for two decades are transformed into a small spaceport with pressurized skybridges for both passengers and cargo.2047 A regular transport route between Mars City and Mining Base Beta is established.2048 A short hyperloop line from Mars City to its spaceport is finished.2048 Several BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City and another one with 100 (mostly miners) at the Mining Base Beta. The population of the Mars City now surpasses 1200 with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 200 at Mining Base Beta.2048 Blue Origin’s spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at Free Spaceport of Phobos; workers are shuttled down to establish the Blue Mars base about thousand miles from Mars City.2049 A nuclear fusion power station is operational at Mars City.2049 A new underground section of Mars City is finished, boosting its population capacity to 3000.2050s When bases grow into colonies2050 With increased electrical power the ISRU and industrial capabilities of Mars City are greatly extended, using the resources harvested and refined around Mars City and nearby proxy bases. Solar panel assembly factory is the first factory on Mars manufacturing complex products.2050 Earth and Mars is the closest ever since the beginning of the colonization. The largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at Mars City, 200 at Mining Base Beta and 100 at Blue Mars base.2051 Mass driver at human base in Sea of Tranquility on the Moon constructed to launch harvested helium-3 for usage in fusion power plants.2051 With China and Russia focusing on the Moon, India is the first Asian superpower to establish its own base on Mars.2052 International human mission to Ceres (flying with a new generation nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at Free Spaceport of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at Mars City and take additional crew members from Mars.2053 1500 colonists land at Mars City and Mining Base Beta and 150 at Blue Mars base. There are now more than 4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface of Mars.2053 At an impact crater near the Mars City work begins to build the first large-scale dome on Mars, covering the entire crater more than a mile across.2054 A deuterium separation facility becomes operational at Mars City.2055 As more colonists land at Mars City it reaches its maximum population capacity. More habitats are built at the outskirts of Mars City, at its proxy bases and Mining Base Beta to support the influx of colonists.2055 Several more Blue Origin’s shuttles land at Blue Mars base, boosting its population to more than 500. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.2055 Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor, China establishes its first colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.2056 The rover repair depot at Mars City is upgraded to a Tesla rover factory.2056 A regular transport route between Mars City and Blue Mars base is established.2056 The large-scale transparent, radiation-filtering, light-weight dome is finished and pressurized at Mars City, covering an area of more than one square mile; workers move in now to construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below the dome.2057 The new generation of SpaceX’s nuclear fusion powered spaceships arrive at the Free Spaceport of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of Mars City and Mining Base Beta. All the BFR family spaceships are retired from SpaceX fleet after 33 years of successful service and sold to Brazil.2058 Mars City’s dome is finished, having a maximum population capacity of 20’000.2058 A hyperloop line and a heavy cargo train tracks are built between the Mars City and the industrial complex at Mining Base Beta.2059 SpaceX’s nuclear spaceships take more colonists to Mars City, bringing its population to 7000.2059 First Brazilian BFR Heavy spaceship lands at Mars City. One of nearby proxy bases is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.2059 United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars the New Dubai.2060s Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars Mars City’s population reaches the level you can’t anymore made the decisions by corporate hierarchy or direct democracy only. First city council on Mars is elected. The expanded Free Spaceport of Phobos more and more serves as a space logistics hub not only for colonies on Mars but for mining activities in Main asteroid belt as well. Several more advanced nations begins participating in the spaceport project.Several more orbital space stations are completed for in-space manufacturing, tourism and other purposes. First humans born on Mars travel to Earth using exoskeletons as body-support because of Earths heavier gravity. Commercial companies from various nations open their branches and operations on Mars. Tourism from Earth is expanding on Mars. Although the trip is still expensive and only the rich can afford it. Besides its high-tech cities and bases Mars can offer spectacular safari rides and if you are really wealthy you can hire some of the guides to take you to the caldera of Olympus Mons, depths of Valles Marineris or other exclusive locations. A second large-scale dome on Mars is built at Blue Mars. A hyperloop line is built between Mars City and Blue Mars. First measures to start the terraforming process of Mars are made, powdering Martian polar ice caps with black lichen to reduce their albedo and melt the ice and building automatic halocarbon factories throughout Mars to produce and release super-greenhouse gases in Martian atmosphere. Artificial magnetic field generator is placed at Sun-Mars Lagrangian point L1 to shield Mars from solar radiation with the generated magnetotail and help the terraformation process of the planet. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to Galilean moons of Jupiter. Nuclear fusion powered spaceships (greatly reducing the travel time from Earth and widening the launch window) bring more colonists to Mars than ever before. In 2060s the human population on Mars explodes from less than 10’000 to more than 50’000 with Mars City alone having 25’000.2070s Human outposts spreading past Mars The Free Spaceport of Phobos is the main supply node for human outposts on Ceres, Vesta, Pallas, asteroids in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. Cyanobacteria and methanogens are spread in lower regions of Mars to further increase the terraformation process. The old workhorse of human colonization of Mars the BFR family spaceships are finally retired completely. The oldest of them are 50 years old now. Mars City is expanded with two more domes of similar size and several smaller ones. There are 5 cities with large-scale domes now on Mars. All of them are interlinked with hyperloop lines. The cluster of Indian colonies on Mars is starting to specialize on growing food for human space outposts in Main asteroid belt and beyond, as Mars is the closest object to them with substantial gravity for growing crops. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to the moons of Saturn (Titan, Enceladus and other). Now almost all of space-faring nations are represented on Mars with a base, a city block or a corporate enterprise. In 2070s the human population on Mars expands from 50’000 to 200’000 with the largest colony Mars City having 60’000. Four more cities have a population of more than 15’000.2080s Mars gets its self-government First Martian Council, consisting of proportionally drawn representatives from every Martian city and base, is assembled on the principle of self-government. The Council deals with the issues important for all of the Martians (as ongoing terraformation initiatives or building a space elevator) and acts as a representative for Martian population in relations with the corporations and governments of Earth. As space elevators first on the Moon and then on Earth become operational, the cost of launching any mass to Mars and elsewhere into space is slashed considerably, greatly speeding up the use of space resources and space colonization. Almost all colonists have left the oldest sections of Mars City with their obsolete infrastructure; the area is declared now a national heritage site, preserving the 1st human colony on Mars as it was in the late 2040s. Tourism from Earth is becoming more and more mainstream. Now even a middle-class people can afford a trip to Mars. Despite criticism China builds the first prison on Mars. Soon other colonies are quietly sending there their criminals too. More powerful halocarbon factories are set up throughout Mars. The bacterial and lichen coverage around Martian surface is further increased. Connected base stations for downward and outward space elevators on Phobos are built; work begins to build both space elevators. The downward elevator will cut short of the upper edge of Mars’s atmosphere with a shuttle platform at its tip. The outward elevator will have several platforms at different points to catch and release payloads (including spaceships) to Earth’s system, to Main asteroid belt and to Jupiter’s system. Work begins to build a large shuttle port at the summit of the Martian volcano practically on the equator Pavonis Mons for shuttles heading to and coming from Phobos space elevator. In 2080s the human population on Mars expands from 200’000 to 500’000 with the largest of the Martian cities Mars City surging past 150’000 inhabitants. Particularly large colonial fleet arrives on 2082 when Earth and Mars is the closest since 2003, only 55.9 million kilometers (34.7 million miles) apart.2090s The millionth Martian The Phobos space elevator system is finished, greatly speeding up the colonization of Mars, interplanetary trade and the growth of human outposts in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. The shuttle port at the summit of Pavonis Mons quickly expands into one of the largest human colonies on Mars Pavonis City, which is soon connected with other major Martian cities by hyperloop lines. Establishment of Pavonis City greatly speeds up tourism in some of the most spectacular Martian regions nearby Tharsis Montes, Olympus Mons, Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris. Tourist bases and hotels are popping up there fast. One of the hyperloop lines runs through all the length of Valles Marineris. In an anticipation of air pressure and temperature increase, new human colonies are being set up mainly in the lower regions of Mars, particularly Hellas Planitia and Valles Marineris, where the results of terraformation activities will be felt first. In 2090s the human population on Mars reaches 1 million. Finally Elon Musk’s goal to put 1 million people on Mars is reached.22nd century Mars becomes independent

Mars becomes practically self-sufficient, having to import only the most complex goods and intellectual property.

The self-sufficiency results in Mars becoming an independent nation-state. The Martian government has to buy up the non-Martian governmental assets located on Mars.

As a technologically advanced frontier society Mars and orbital stations around it become the primary source of specialists and workers needed for human bases and missions further in Main asteroid belt and outer Solar system.

Air pressure and temperature on Mars is increased to the level where there is flowing water on the surface and simple plants can be introduced into newly created biosphere of the planet.

As one of the lower regions on Mars close to the equator Valles Marineris is seeing the most benefits from terraformation activities and Phobos space elevator; cities and farming communities are spreading throughout the valleys and at the end of the 22nd century there are nearly 5 million people living in Valles Marineris. It’s the most populous urban area on Mars.

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human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

The Case for Colonizing Mars, by Robert Zubrin|National …

From Ad Astra July/August 1996

Among extraterrestrial bodies in our solar system, Mars is singular in that it possesses all the raw materials required to support not only life, but a new branch of human civilization. This uniqueness is illustrated most clearly if we contrast Mars with the Earths Moon, the most frequently cited alternative location for extraterrestrial human colonization.

In contrast to the Moon, Mars is rich in carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen and oxygen, all in biologically readily accessible forms such as carbon dioxide gas, nitrogen gas, and water ice and permafrost. Carbon, nitrogen, and hydrogen are only present on the Moon in parts per million quantities, much like gold in seawater. Oxygen is abundant on the Moon, but only in tightly bound oxides such as silicon dioxide (SiO2), ferrous oxide (Fe2O3), magnesium oxide (MgO), and aluminum oxide (Al2O3), which require very high energy processes to reduce. Current knowledge indicates that if Mars were smooth and all its ice and permafrost melted into liquid water, the entire planet would be covered with an ocean over 100 meters deep. This contrasts strongly with the Moon, which is so dry that if concrete were found there, Lunar colonists would mine it to get the water out. Thus, if plants could be grown in greenhouses on the Moon (an unlikely proposition, as weve seen) most of their biomass material would have to be imported.

The Moon is also deficient in about half the metals of interest to industrial society (copper, for example), as well as many other elements of interest such as sulfur and phosphorus. Mars has every required element in abundance. Moreover, on Mars, as on Earth, hydrologic and volcanic processes have occurred that are likely to have consolidated various elements into local concentrations of high-grade mineral ore. Indeed, the geologic history of Mars has been compared to that of Africa, with very optimistic inferences as to its mineral wealth implied as a corollary. In contrast, the Moon has had virtually no history of water or volcanic action, with the result that it is basically composed of trash rocks with very little differentiation into ores that represent useful concentrations of anything interesting.

You can generate power on either the Moon or Mars with solar panels, and here the advantages of the Moons clearer skies and closer proximity to the Sun than Mars roughly balances the disadvantage of large energy storage requirements created by the Moons 28-day light-dark cycle. But if you wish to manufacture solar panels, so as to create a self-expanding power base, Mars holds an enormous advantage, as only Mars possesses the large supplies of carbon and hydrogen needed to produce the pure silicon required for producing photovoltaic panels and other electronics. In addition, Mars has the potential for wind-generated power while the Moon clearly does not. But both solar and wind offer relatively modest power potential tens or at most hundreds of kilowatts here or there. To create a vibrant civilization you need a richer power base, and this Mars has both in the short and medium term in the form of its geothermal power resources, which offer potential for large numbers of locally created electricity generating stations in the 10 MW (10,000 kilowatt) class. In the long-term, Mars will enjoy a power-rich economy based upon exploitation of its large domestic resources of deuterium fuel for fusion reactors. Deuterium is five times more common on Mars than it is on Earth, and tens of thousands of times more common on Mars than on the Moon.

But the biggest problem with the Moon, as with all other airless planetary bodies and proposed artificial free-space colonies, is that sunlight is not available in a form useful for growing crops. A single acre of plants on Earth requires four megawatts of sunlight power, a square kilometer needs 1,000 MW. The entire world put together does not produce enough electrical power to illuminate the farms of the state of Rhode Island, that agricultural giant. Growing crops with electrically generated light is just economically hopeless. But you cant use natural sunlight on the Moon or any other airless body in space unless you put walls on the greenhouse thick enough to shield out solar flares, a requirement that enormously increases the expense of creating cropland. Even if you did that, it wouldnt do you any good on the Moon, because plants wont grow in a light/dark cycle lasting 28 days.

But on Mars there is an atmosphere thick enough to protect crops grown on the surface from solar flare. Therefore, thin-walled inflatable plastic greenhouses protected by unpressurized UV-resistant hard-plastic shield domes can be used to rapidly create cropland on the surface. Even without the problems of solar flares and month-long diurnal cycle, such simple greenhouses would be impractical on the Moon as they would create unbearably high temperatures. On Mars, in contrast, the strong greenhouse effect created by such domes would be precisely what is necessary to produce a temperate climate inside. Such domes up to 50 meters in diameter are light enough to be transported from Earth initially, and later on they can be manufactured on Mars out of indigenous materials. Because all the resources to make plastics exist on Mars, networks of such 50- to 100-meter domes couldbe rapidly manufactured and deployed, opening up large areas of the surface to both shirtsleeve human habitation and agriculture. Thats just the beginning, because it will eventually be possible for humans to substantially thicken Mars atmosphere by forcing the regolith to outgas its contents through a deliberate program of artificially induced global warming. Once that has been accomplished, the habitation domes could be virtually any size, as they would not have to sustain a pressure differential between their interior and exterior. In fact, once that has been done, it will be possible to raise specially bred crops outside the domes.

The point to be made is that unlike colonists on any known extraterrestrial body, Martian colonists will be able to live on the surface, not in tunnels, and move about freely and grow crops in the light of day. Mars is a place where humans can live and multiply to large numbers, supporting themselves with products of every description made out of indigenous materials. Mars is thus a place where an actual civilization, not just a mining or scientific outpost, can be developed. And significantly for interplanetary commerce, Mars and Earth are the only two locations in the solar system where humans will be able to grow crops for export.

Mars is the best target for colonization in the solar system because it has by far the greatest potential for self-sufficiency. Nevertheless, even with optimistic extrapolation of robotic manufacturing techniques, Mars will not have the division of labor required to make it fully self-sufficient until its population numbers in the millions. Thus, for decades and perhaps longer, it will be necessary, and forever desirable, for Mars to be able to import specialized manufactured goods from Earth. These goods can be fairly limited in mass, as only small portions (by weight) of even very high-tech goods are actually complex. Nevertheless, these smaller sophisticated items will have to be paid for, and the high costs of Earth-launch and interplanetary transport will greatly increase their price. What can Mars possibly export back to Earth in return?

It is this question that has caused many to incorrectly deem Mars colonization intractable, or at least inferior in prospect to the Moon. For example, much has been made of the fact that the Moon has indigenous supplies of helium-3, an isotope not found on Earth and which could be of considerable value as a fuel for second generation thermonuclear fusion reactors. Mars has no known helium-3 resources. On the other hand, because of its complex geologic history, Mars may have concentrated mineral ores, with much greater concentrations of precious metal ores readily available than is currently the case on Earth because the terrestrial ores have been heavily scavenged by humans for the past 5,000 years. If concentrated supplies of metals of equal or greater value than silver (such as germanium, hafnium, lanthanum, cerium, rhenium, samarium, gallium, gadolinium, gold, palladium, iridium, rubidium, platinum, rhodium, europium, and a host of others) were available on Mars, they could potentially be transported back to Earth for a substantial profit. Reusable Mars-surface based single-stage-to-orbit vehicles would haul cargoes to Mars orbit for transportation to Earth via either cheap expendable chemical stages manufactured on Mars or reusable cycling solar or magnetic sail-powered interplanetary spacecraft. The existence of such Martian precious metal ores, however, is still hypothetical.

But there is one commercial resource that is known to exist ubiquitously on Mars in large amount deuterium. Deuterium, the heavy isotope of hydrogen, occurs as 166 out of every million hydrogen atoms on Earth, but comprises 833 out of every million hydrogen atoms on Mars. Deuterium is the key fuel not only for both first and second generation fusion reactors, but it is also an essential material needed by the nuclear power industry today. Even with cheap power, deuterium is very expensive; its current market value on Earth is about $10,000 per kilogram, roughly fifty times as valuable as silver or 70% as valuable as gold. This is in todays pre-fusion economy. Once fusion reactors go into widespread use deuterium prices will increase. All the in-situ chemical processes required to produce the fuel, oxygen, and plastics necessary to run a Mars settlement require water electrolysis as an intermediate step. As a by product of these operations, millions, perhaps billions, of dollars worth of deuterium will be produced.

Ideas may be another possible export for Martian colonists. Just as the labor shortage prevalent in colonial and nineteenth century America drove the creation of Yankee ingenuitys flood of inventions, so the conditions of extreme labor shortage combined with a technological culture that shuns impractical legislative constraints against innovation will tend to drive Martian ingenuity to produce wave after wave of invention in energy production, automation and robotics, biotechnology, and other areas. These inventions, licensed on Earth, could finance Mars even as they revolutionize and advance terrestrial living standards as forcefully as nineteenth century American invention changed Europe and ultimately the rest of the world as well.

Inventions produced as a matter of necessity by a practical intellectual culture stressed by frontier conditions can make Mars rich, but invention and direct export to Earth are not the only ways that Martians will be able to make a fortune. The other route is via trade to the asteroid belt, the band of small, mineral-rich bodies lying between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. There are about 5,000 asteroids known today, of which about 98% are in the Main Belt lying between Mars and Jupiter, with an average distance from the Sun of about 2.7 astronomical units, or AU. (The Earth is 1.0 AU from the Sun.) Of the remaining two percent known as the near-Earth asteroids, about 90% orbit closer to Mars than to the Earth. Collectively, these asteroids represent an enormous stockpile of mineral wealth in the form of platinum group and other valuable metals.

Miners operating among the asteroids will be unable to produce their necessary supplies locally. There will thus be a need to export food and other necessary goods from either Earth or Mars to the Main Belt. Mars has an overwhelming positional advantage as a location from which to conduct such trade.

The primary analogy I wish to draw is that Mars is to the new age of exploration as North America was to the last. The Earths Moon, close to the metropolitan planet but impoverished in resources, compares to Greenland. Other destinations, such as the Main Belt asteroids, may be rich in potential future exports to Earth but lack the preconditions for the creation of a fully developed indigenous society; these compare to the West Indies. Only Mars has the full set of resources required to develop a native civilization, and only Mars is a viable target for true colonization. Like America in its relationship to Britain and the West Indies, Mars has a positional advantage that will allow it to participate in a useful way to support extractive activities on behalf of Earth in the asteroid belt and elsewhere.

But despite the shortsighted calculations of eighteenth-century European statesmen and financiers, the true value of America never was as a logistical support base for West Indies sugar and spice trade, inland fur trade, or as a potential market for manufactured goods. The true value of America was as the future home for a new branch of human civilization, one that as a combined result of its humanistic antecedents and its frontier conditions was able to develop into the most powerful engine for human progress and economic growth the world had ever seen. The wealth of America was in fact that she could support people, and that the right kind of people chose to go to her. People create wealth. People are wealth and power. Every feature of Frontier American life that acted to create a practical can-do culture of innovating people will apply to Mars a hundred-fold.

Mars is a harsher place than any on Earth. But provided one can survive the regimen, it is the toughest schools that are the best. The Martians shall do well.

Robert Zubrin is former Chairman of the National Space Society, President of the Mars Society, and author of The Case For Mars: The Plan to Settle the Red Planet and Why We Must.

See also these articles by Robert Zubrin:The Promise of MarsThe Significance of the Martian Frontier

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The Case for Colonizing Mars, by Robert Zubrin|National …

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse.

There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to Mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

The rest is here:

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Inspired from FutureTimeline.net and the Integrated Space Plan we have created a speculated timeline of human exploration and colonization of Mars. Predictions are based on a reasonably optimistic evaluation of technological and social progress of humanity. Only the most important and innovative events are mentioned. Timeline is regularly updated taking into account latest developments.Last update was made on 18th May, 2018.2010s The Mars hype is there2016 Elon Musk reveals SpaceX plans for the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS, formerly known as Mars Colonial Transporter).2016 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter enters Mars orbit, but Schiaparelli lander crashes on the surface of Mars.2017 Elon Musk updates SpaceX vision “to make life multiplanetary” and colonize Mars (with Big Falcon Rocket architecture, formerly known as Interplanetary Transport System or ITS).2018 NASA’s InSight lander lands on Mars at Elysium Planitia.2020s Preparing for human arrival2020 Through the Commercial Crew Program NASA awards several companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, to develop and build a lander/ascent vehicle(s) capable to land on the Moon and bring back to Lunar orbit at least 4 astronauts no later than 2028.2021 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars rover lands on Mars at Oxia Planum.2021 NASA’s Mars 2020 rover lands on Mars to collect samples for later retrieval. A small reconnaissance drone-helicopter accompanies the rover.2021 First Chinese orbiter, lander and rover reaches Mars.2021 United Arab Emirates Hope probe enters Mars orbit.2022 SpaceX’s BFR prototype booster and cargo spaceship makes first orbital test flight around Earth.2023 India’s Mangalyaan 2 orbiter and lander reaches Mars.2025 Japan&France’s Martian Moons Explorer lands on Phobos to collect samples and return them to Earth in 2029.2026 First SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship successfully tested.2026 A communications relay satellite is placed at Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L5 to overcome the problem of periodic communications blackout with spacecrafts temporary behind the Sun.2026 Core structure of international Lunar Orbital Gateway completed in Lunar orbit.2027 Two demonstration BFR cargo spaceships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human colony on Mars; both ships have a small nuclear power reactor in cargo and an automatic atmospheric propellant plant to produce oxygen and methane from Martian atmosphere.2027 NASA&ESA’s sample return orbiter (with broadband laser communications capability) and lander (with Mars ascent vehicle and a sample collection rover) reaches Mars to retrieve samples collected by Mars 2020 rover and launch them back to Earth.2028 Separated by several months SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship and Blue Origin’s and Lockheed Martin’s manned landers land on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to establish the first human outpost on the Moon.2028 After the ground tests are done in both places the final location of future “Mars City” is selected. Filled with local propellant the one BFR spaceship not on the selected location launches from Mars and successfully lands back on Earth the next year.2029 Two unmanned BFR spaceships land at the selected location of Mars City: a backup crew ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner/tunneling droids, solar panels and parts for a modular habitat for the first human mission.2030s First human base on Mars2030 Several basic landing pads prepared robotically at Mars City location for the human mission next year.2031 On a mission supported by NASA two SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceships with 12 astronauts each land at Mars City first humans on Mars. The crewed ships are accompanied with a few cargo ships, including one with machinery for a ground-based In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system.2031 The first modular habitat and a solar array is built.2032 After the best location is confirmed a small-scale mining of water ice starts near the Mars City base. Ground-based ISRU system with atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water, nitrogen, argon and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.2032 Several landing/launch pads for future BFR missions are built a few miles from Mars City base.2033 2 of the 3 landed BFR crew spaceships and all of the landed cargo spaceships, except the first one with nuclear power reactor and atmospheric propellant plant on-board, launch back to Earth unmanned.2033 2nd crew of ~30 astronauts and workers aboard a BFR spaceship lands at Mars City. NASA’s research Mars Surface Field Station is established at Mars City. A hydroponic greenhouse is built to provide Mars City with locally grown vegan food. “The Mars Society” establishes its first chapter on Mars :)2034 Small-scale Martian soil extraction, chemical separation and storage equipment is assembled; the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.2034 Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at Mars City and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.2035 First fully occupied BFR spaceship with 100 scientists and colonists lands at Mars City.2035 NASA’s Mars Surface Field Station is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).2036 First orbital fuel depot for hydrolox rocket engines completed at Low Earth orbit. The hydrogen and oxygen is provided from the Moon and Near Earth asteroids.2036 The ISRU capabilities of Mars City are extended not only to produce air, water and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement, basic fertilizers, plastics and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial size 3D printers are also assembled.2037 BFR spaceship with 100 human colonists and workers lands at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 200.2037 A constellation of satellites with global positioning system (GPS) and global communications system is placed in high orbit around Mars by BFR cargo spaceship. Now it’s hard to get lost on Mars; possibly only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.2038 Cyanobacteria is introduced into the ISRU processes of Mars City.2038 A fish farm is built at Mars City to provide more diverse local food for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.2039 A transparent, radiation-filtering geodesic dome with garden is built at Mars City; work begins to build a new underground section of Mars City with larger habitats and working areas to boost the population capacity of the colony to 1000.2039 First child is born on Mars at Mars City. His voyage to Earth later in his life would be dangerous because of his bones and organs not being fit for Earth’s gravity.2040s Mars gets its orbital space station2040 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 human colonists, workers and some wealthy tourists land at Mars City.2041 The new underground section of Mars City is finished. Now the colonists have a lot spacier living and working quarters with full radiation protection.2041 Cultured meat “farm” is built at Mars City, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of the colonists.2041 Virgin Galactic establishes the first luxury hotel at the outskirts of Mars City.2042 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 passengers land at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 500.2042 On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies Blue Origin’s manned spaceship reaches Mars orbit near Phobos with first modules for Free Spaceport of Phobos project which will be a space station with several spinning sections with Mars-level artificial gravity of 0.38g and serveas a way station and fuel&repairs depot for manned and unmanned spaceships heading for Mars, Main asteroid belt and beyond.2042 International human mission to Phobos and Deimos, operated by Blue Origin from Free Spaceport of Phobos construction place.2043 Several small proxy bases for scientific, mining and other purposes are established within a few tens of miles from Mars City.2043 First mass driver constructed on the Moon at Shackleton Crater’s base to launch harvested oxygen and hydrogen for storage at Lunar Orbital Gateway and fuel depot at Low Earth orbit.2044 First BFR Heavy spaceships with 300 passengers land at Mars City. Among them is SpaceX’s founder Elon Musk. BFR Heavy is an enlarged and upgraded version of BFR with a 15m core booster and a lot spacier living quarters for passengers.2045 Large deposit of minerals with high concentration of rare metals is discovered a few hundred miles from Mars City. A research Mining Base Beta is established.2045 Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and propellant needs of nearby Free Spaceport of Phobos.2045 A land trip all around the Mars is completed for the 1st time.2046 BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City bringing parts for a nuclear fusion reactor as well.2046 With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational. Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt now is rapidly expanding.2046 Blue Origin’s lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best location for Blue Mars base (in addition to Blue Origin’s already developed Blue Moon base).2047 The landing pads a few miles from Mars City where BFR crew and cargo spaceships has landed and taken off for two decades are transformed into a small spaceport with pressurized skybridges for both passengers and cargo.2047 A regular transport route between Mars City and Mining Base Beta is established.2048 A short hyperloop line from Mars City to its spaceport is finished.2048 Several BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City and another one with 100 (mostly miners) at the Mining Base Beta. The population of the Mars City now surpasses 1200 with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 200 at Mining Base Beta.2048 Blue Origin’s spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at Free Spaceport of Phobos; workers are shuttled down to establish the Blue Mars base about thousand miles from Mars City.2049 A nuclear fusion power station is operational at Mars City.2049 A new underground section of Mars City is finished, boosting its population capacity to 3000.2050s When bases grow into colonies2050 With increased electrical power the ISRU and industrial capabilities of Mars City are greatly extended, using the resources harvested and refined around Mars City and nearby proxy bases. Solar panel assembly factory is the first factory on Mars manufacturing complex products.2050 Earth and Mars is the closest ever since the beginning of the colonization. The largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at Mars City, 200 at Mining Base Beta and 100 at Blue Mars base.2051 Mass driver at human base in Sea of Tranquility on the Moon constructed to launch harvested helium-3 for usage in fusion power plants.2051 With China and Russia focusing on the Moon, India is the first Asian superpower to establish its own base on Mars.2052 International human mission to Ceres (flying with a new generation nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at Free Spaceport of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at Mars City and take additional crew members from Mars.2053 1500 colonists land at Mars City and Mining Base Beta and 150 at Blue Mars base. There are now more than 4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface of Mars.2053 At an impact crater near the Mars City work begins to build the first large-scale dome on Mars, covering the entire crater more than a mile across.2054 A deuterium separation facility becomes operational at Mars City.2055 As more colonists land at Mars City it reaches its maximum population capacity. More habitats are built at the outskirts of Mars City, at its proxy bases and Mining Base Beta to support the influx of colonists.2055 Several more Blue Origin’s shuttles land at Blue Mars base, boosting its population to more than 500. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.2055 Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor, China establishes its first colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.2056 The rover repair depot at Mars City is upgraded to a Tesla rover factory.2056 A regular transport route between Mars City and Blue Mars base is established.2056 The large-scale transparent, radiation-filtering, light-weight dome is finished and pressurized at Mars City, covering an area of more than one square mile; workers move in now to construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below the dome.2057 The new generation of SpaceX’s nuclear fusion powered spaceships arrive at the Free Spaceport of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of Mars City and Mining Base Beta. All the BFR family spaceships are retired from SpaceX fleet after 33 years of successful service and sold to Brazil.2058 Mars City’s dome is finished, having a maximum population capacity of 20’000.2058 A hyperloop line and a heavy cargo train tracks are built between the Mars City and the industrial complex at Mining Base Beta.2059 SpaceX’s nuclear spaceships take more colonists to Mars City, bringing its population to 7000.2059 First Brazilian BFR Heavy spaceship lands at Mars City. One of nearby proxy bases is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.2059 United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars the New Dubai.2060s Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars Mars City’s population reaches the level you can’t anymore made the decisions by corporate hierarchy or direct democracy only. First city council on Mars is elected. The expanded Free Spaceport of Phobos more and more serves as a space logistics hub not only for colonies on Mars but for mining activities in Main asteroid belt as well. Several more advanced nations begins participating in the spaceport project.Several more orbital space stations are completed for in-space manufacturing, tourism and other purposes. First humans born on Mars travel to Earth using exoskeletons as body-support because of Earths heavier gravity. Commercial companies from various nations open their branches and operations on Mars. Tourism from Earth is expanding on Mars. Although the trip is still expensive and only the rich can afford it. Besides its high-tech cities and bases Mars can offer spectacular safari rides and if you are really wealthy you can hire some of the guides to take you to the caldera of Olympus Mons, depths of Valles Marineris or other exclusive locations. A second large-scale dome on Mars is built at Blue Mars. A hyperloop line is built between Mars City and Blue Mars. First measures to start the terraforming process of Mars are made, powdering Martian polar ice caps with black lichen to reduce their albedo and melt the ice and building automatic halocarbon factories throughout Mars to produce and release super-greenhouse gases in Martian atmosphere. Artificial magnetic field generator is placed at Sun-Mars Lagrangian point L1 to shield Mars from solar radiation with the generated magnetotail and help the terraformation process of the planet. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to Galilean moons of Jupiter. Nuclear fusion powered spaceships (greatly reducing the travel time from Earth and widening the launch window) bring more colonists to Mars than ever before. In 2060s the human population on Mars explodes from less than 10’000 to more than 50’000 with Mars City alone having 25’000.2070s Human outposts spreading past Mars The Free Spaceport of Phobos is the main supply node for human outposts on Ceres, Vesta, Pallas, asteroids in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. Cyanobacteria and methanogens are spread in lower regions of Mars to further increase the terraformation process. The old workhorse of human colonization of Mars the BFR family spaceships are finally retired completely. The oldest of them are 50 years old now. Mars City is expanded with two more domes of similar size and several smaller ones. There are 5 cities with large-scale domes now on Mars. All of them are interlinked with hyperloop lines. The cluster of Indian colonies on Mars is starting to specialize on growing food for human space outposts in Main asteroid belt and beyond, as Mars is the closest object to them with substantial gravity for growing crops. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to the moons of Saturn (Titan, Enceladus and other). Now almost all of space-faring nations are represented on Mars with a base, a city block or a corporate enterprise. In 2070s the human population on Mars expands from 50’000 to 200’000 with the largest colony Mars City having 60’000. Four more cities have a population of more than 15’000.2080s Mars gets its self-government First Martian Council, consisting of proportionally drawn representatives from every Martian city and base, is assembled on the principle of self-government. The Council deals with the issues important for all of the Martians (as ongoing terraformation initiatives or building a space elevator) and acts as a representative for Martian population in relations with the corporations and governments of Earth. As space elevators first on the Moon and then on Earth become operational, the cost of launching any mass to Mars and elsewhere into space is slashed considerably, greatly speeding up the use of space resources and space colonization. Almost all colonists have left the oldest sections of Mars City with their obsolete infrastructure; the area is declared now a national heritage site, preserving the 1st human colony on Mars as it was in the late 2040s. Tourism from Earth is becoming more and more mainstream. Now even a middle-class people can afford a trip to Mars. Despite criticism China builds the first prison on Mars. Soon other colonies are quietly sending there their criminals too. More powerful halocarbon factories are set up throughout Mars. The bacterial and lichen coverage around Martian surface is further increased. Connected base stations for downward and outward space elevators on Phobos are built; work begins to build both space elevators. The downward elevator will cut short of the upper edge of Mars’s atmosphere with a shuttle platform at its tip. The outward elevator will have several platforms at different points to catch and release payloads (including spaceships) to Earth’s system, to Main asteroid belt and to Jupiter’s system. Work begins to build a large shuttle port at the summit of the Martian volcano practically on the equator Pavonis Mons for shuttles heading to and coming from Phobos space elevator. In 2080s the human population on Mars expands from 200’000 to 500’000 with the largest of the Martian cities Mars City surging past 150’000 inhabitants. Particularly large colonial fleet arrives on 2082 when Earth and Mars is the closest since 2003, only 55.9 million kilometers (34.7 million miles) apart.2090s The millionth Martian The Phobos space elevator system is finished, greatly speeding up the colonization of Mars, interplanetary trade and the growth of human outposts in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. The shuttle port at the summit of Pavonis Mons quickly expands into one of the largest human colonies on Mars Pavonis City, which is soon connected with other major Martian cities by hyperloop lines. Establishment of Pavonis City greatly speeds up tourism in some of the most spectacular Martian regions nearby Tharsis Montes, Olympus Mons, Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris. Tourist bases and hotels are popping up there fast. One of the hyperloop lines runs through all the length of Valles Marineris. In an anticipation of air pressure and temperature increase, new human colonies are being set up mainly in the lower regions of Mars, particularly Hellas Planitia and Valles Marineris, where the results of terraformation activities will be felt first. In 2090s the human population on Mars reaches 1 million. Finally Elon Musk’s goal to put 1 million people on Mars is reached.22nd century Mars becomes independent

Mars becomes practically self-sufficient, having to import only the most complex goods and intellectual property.

The self-sufficiency results in Mars becoming an independent nation-state. The Martian government has to buy up the non-Martian governmental assets located on Mars.

As a technologically advanced frontier society Mars and orbital stations around it become the primary source of specialists and workers needed for human bases and missions further in Main asteroid belt and outer Solar system.

Air pressure and temperature on Mars is increased to the level where there is flowing water on the surface and simple plants can be introduced into newly created biosphere of the planet.

As one of the lower regions on Mars close to the equator Valles Marineris is seeing the most benefits from terraformation activities and Phobos space elevator; cities and farming communities are spreading throughout the valleys and at the end of the 22nd century there are nearly 5 million people living in Valles Marineris. It’s the most populous urban area on Mars.

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human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse.

There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to Mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

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Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Inspired from FutureTimeline.net and the Integrated Space Plan we have created a speculated timeline of human exploration and colonization of Mars. Predictions are based on a reasonably optimistic evaluation of technological and social progress of humanity. Only the most important and innovative events are mentioned. Timeline is regularly updated taking into account latest developments.Last update was made on 18th May, 2018.2010s The Mars hype is there2016 Elon Musk reveals SpaceX plans for the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS, formerly known as Mars Colonial Transporter).2016 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter enters Mars orbit, but Schiaparelli lander crashes on the surface of Mars.2017 Elon Musk updates SpaceX vision “to make life multiplanetary” and colonize Mars (with Big Falcon Rocket architecture, formerly known as Interplanetary Transport System or ITS).2018 NASA’s InSight lander lands on Mars at Elysium Planitia.2020s Preparing for human arrival2020 Through the Commercial Crew Program NASA awards several companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, to develop and build a lander/ascent vehicle(s) capable to land on the Moon and bring back to Lunar orbit at least 4 astronauts no later than 2028.2021 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars rover lands on Mars at Oxia Planum.2021 NASA’s Mars 2020 rover lands on Mars to collect samples for later retrieval. A small reconnaissance drone-helicopter accompanies the rover.2021 First Chinese orbiter, lander and rover reaches Mars.2021 United Arab Emirates Hope probe enters Mars orbit.2022 SpaceX’s BFR prototype booster and cargo spaceship makes first orbital test flight around Earth.2023 India’s Mangalyaan 2 orbiter and lander reaches Mars.2025 Japan&France’s Martian Moons Explorer lands on Phobos to collect samples and return them to Earth in 2029.2026 First SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship successfully tested.2026 A communications relay satellite is placed at Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L5 to overcome the problem of periodic communications blackout with spacecrafts temporary behind the Sun.2026 Core structure of international Lunar Orbital Gateway completed in Lunar orbit.2027 Two demonstration BFR cargo spaceships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human colony on Mars; both ships have a small nuclear power reactor in cargo and an automatic atmospheric propellant plant to produce oxygen and methane from Martian atmosphere.2027 NASA&ESA’s sample return orbiter (with broadband laser communications capability) and lander (with Mars ascent vehicle and a sample collection rover) reaches Mars to retrieve samples collected by Mars 2020 rover and launch them back to Earth.2028 Separated by several months SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship and Blue Origin’s and Lockheed Martin’s manned landers land on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to establish the first human outpost on the Moon.2028 After the ground tests are done in both places the final location of future “Mars City” is selected. Filled with local propellant the one BFR spaceship not on the selected location launches from Mars and successfully lands back on Earth the next year.2029 Two unmanned BFR spaceships land at the selected location of Mars City: a backup crew ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner/tunneling droids, solar panels and parts for a modular habitat for the first human mission.2030s First human base on Mars2030 Several basic landing pads prepared robotically at Mars City location for the human mission next year.2031 On a mission supported by NASA two SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceships with 12 astronauts each land at Mars City first humans on Mars. The crewed ships are accompanied with a few cargo ships, including one with machinery for a ground-based In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system.2031 The first modular habitat and a solar array is built.2032 After the best location is confirmed a small-scale mining of water ice starts near the Mars City base. Ground-based ISRU system with atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water, nitrogen, argon and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.2032 Several landing/launch pads for future BFR missions are built a few miles from Mars City base.2033 2 of the 3 landed BFR crew spaceships and all of the landed cargo spaceships, except the first one with nuclear power reactor and atmospheric propellant plant on-board, launch back to Earth unmanned.2033 2nd crew of ~30 astronauts and workers aboard a BFR spaceship lands at Mars City. NASA’s research Mars Surface Field Station is established at Mars City. A hydroponic greenhouse is built to provide Mars City with locally grown vegan food. “The Mars Society” establishes its first chapter on Mars :)2034 Small-scale Martian soil extraction, chemical separation and storage equipment is assembled; the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.2034 Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at Mars City and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.2035 First fully occupied BFR spaceship with 100 scientists and colonists lands at Mars City.2035 NASA’s Mars Surface Field Station is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).2036 First orbital fuel depot for hydrolox rocket engines completed at Low Earth orbit. The hydrogen and oxygen is provided from the Moon and Near Earth asteroids.2036 The ISRU capabilities of Mars City are extended not only to produce air, water and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement, basic fertilizers, plastics and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial size 3D printers are also assembled.2037 BFR spaceship with 100 human colonists and workers lands at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 200.2037 A constellation of satellites with global positioning system (GPS) and global communications system is placed in high orbit around Mars by BFR cargo spaceship. Now it’s hard to get lost on Mars; possibly only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.2038 Cyanobacteria is introduced into the ISRU processes of Mars City.2038 A fish farm is built at Mars City to provide more diverse local food for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.2039 A transparent, radiation-filtering geodesic dome with garden is built at Mars City; work begins to build a new underground section of Mars City with larger habitats and working areas to boost the population capacity of the colony to 1000.2039 First child is born on Mars at Mars City. His voyage to Earth later in his life would be dangerous because of his bones and organs not being fit for Earth’s gravity.2040s Mars gets its orbital space station2040 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 human colonists, workers and some wealthy tourists land at Mars City.2041 The new underground section of Mars City is finished. Now the colonists have a lot spacier living and working quarters with full radiation protection.2041 Cultured meat “farm” is built at Mars City, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of the colonists.2041 Virgin Galactic establishes the first luxury hotel at the outskirts of Mars City.2042 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 passengers land at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 500.2042 On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies Blue Origin’s manned spaceship reaches Mars orbit near Phobos with first modules for Free Spaceport of Phobos project which will be a space station with several spinning sections with Mars-level artificial gravity of 0.38g and serveas a way station and fuel&repairs depot for manned and unmanned spaceships heading for Mars, Main asteroid belt and beyond.2042 International human mission to Phobos and Deimos, operated by Blue Origin from Free Spaceport of Phobos construction place.2043 Several small proxy bases for scientific, mining and other purposes are established within a few tens of miles from Mars City.2043 First mass driver constructed on the Moon at Shackleton Crater’s base to launch harvested oxygen and hydrogen for storage at Lunar Orbital Gateway and fuel depot at Low Earth orbit.2044 First BFR Heavy spaceships with 300 passengers land at Mars City. Among them is SpaceX’s founder Elon Musk. BFR Heavy is an enlarged and upgraded version of BFR with a 15m core booster and a lot spacier living quarters for passengers.2045 Large deposit of minerals with high concentration of rare metals is discovered a few hundred miles from Mars City. A research Mining Base Beta is established.2045 Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and propellant needs of nearby Free Spaceport of Phobos.2045 A land trip all around the Mars is completed for the 1st time.2046 BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City bringing parts for a nuclear fusion reactor as well.2046 With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational. Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt now is rapidly expanding.2046 Blue Origin’s lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best location for Blue Mars base (in addition to Blue Origin’s already developed Blue Moon base).2047 The landing pads a few miles from Mars City where BFR crew and cargo spaceships has landed and taken off for two decades are transformed into a small spaceport with pressurized skybridges for both passengers and cargo.2047 A regular transport route between Mars City and Mining Base Beta is established.2048 A short hyperloop line from Mars City to its spaceport is finished.2048 Several BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City and another one with 100 (mostly miners) at the Mining Base Beta. The population of the Mars City now surpasses 1200 with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 200 at Mining Base Beta.2048 Blue Origin’s spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at Free Spaceport of Phobos; workers are shuttled down to establish the Blue Mars base about thousand miles from Mars City.2049 A nuclear fusion power station is operational at Mars City.2049 A new underground section of Mars City is finished, boosting its population capacity to 3000.2050s When bases grow into colonies2050 With increased electrical power the ISRU and industrial capabilities of Mars City are greatly extended, using the resources harvested and refined around Mars City and nearby proxy bases. Solar panel assembly factory is the first factory on Mars manufacturing complex products.2050 Earth and Mars is the closest ever since the beginning of the colonization. The largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at Mars City, 200 at Mining Base Beta and 100 at Blue Mars base.2051 Mass driver at human base in Sea of Tranquility on the Moon constructed to launch harvested helium-3 for usage in fusion power plants.2051 With China and Russia focusing on the Moon, India is the first Asian superpower to establish its own base on Mars.2052 International human mission to Ceres (flying with a new generation nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at Free Spaceport of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at Mars City and take additional crew members from Mars.2053 1500 colonists land at Mars City and Mining Base Beta and 150 at Blue Mars base. There are now more than 4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface of Mars.2053 At an impact crater near the Mars City work begins to build the first large-scale dome on Mars, covering the entire crater more than a mile across.2054 A deuterium separation facility becomes operational at Mars City.2055 As more colonists land at Mars City it reaches its maximum population capacity. More habitats are built at the outskirts of Mars City, at its proxy bases and Mining Base Beta to support the influx of colonists.2055 Several more Blue Origin’s shuttles land at Blue Mars base, boosting its population to more than 500. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.2055 Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor, China establishes its first colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.2056 The rover repair depot at Mars City is upgraded to a Tesla rover factory.2056 A regular transport route between Mars City and Blue Mars base is established.2056 The large-scale transparent, radiation-filtering, light-weight dome is finished and pressurized at Mars City, covering an area of more than one square mile; workers move in now to construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below the dome.2057 The new generation of SpaceX’s nuclear fusion powered spaceships arrive at the Free Spaceport of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of Mars City and Mining Base Beta. All the BFR family spaceships are retired from SpaceX fleet after 33 years of successful service and sold to Brazil.2058 Mars City’s dome is finished, having a maximum population capacity of 20’000.2058 A hyperloop line and a heavy cargo train tracks are built between the Mars City and the industrial complex at Mining Base Beta.2059 SpaceX’s nuclear spaceships take more colonists to Mars City, bringing its population to 7000.2059 First Brazilian BFR Heavy spaceship lands at Mars City. One of nearby proxy bases is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.2059 United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars the New Dubai.2060s Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars Mars City’s population reaches the level you can’t anymore made the decisions by corporate hierarchy or direct democracy only. First city council on Mars is elected. The expanded Free Spaceport of Phobos more and more serves as a space logistics hub not only for colonies on Mars but for mining activities in Main asteroid belt as well. Several more advanced nations begins participating in the spaceport project.Several more orbital space stations are completed for in-space manufacturing, tourism and other purposes. First humans born on Mars travel to Earth using exoskeletons as body-support because of Earths heavier gravity. Commercial companies from various nations open their branches and operations on Mars. Tourism from Earth is expanding on Mars. Although the trip is still expensive and only the rich can afford it. Besides its high-tech cities and bases Mars can offer spectacular safari rides and if you are really wealthy you can hire some of the guides to take you to the caldera of Olympus Mons, depths of Valles Marineris or other exclusive locations. A second large-scale dome on Mars is built at Blue Mars. A hyperloop line is built between Mars City and Blue Mars. First measures to start the terraforming process of Mars are made, powdering Martian polar ice caps with black lichen to reduce their albedo and melt the ice and building automatic halocarbon factories throughout Mars to produce and release super-greenhouse gases in Martian atmosphere. Artificial magnetic field generator is placed at Sun-Mars Lagrangian point L1 to shield Mars from solar radiation with the generated magnetotail and help the terraformation process of the planet. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to Galilean moons of Jupiter. Nuclear fusion powered spaceships (greatly reducing the travel time from Earth and widening the launch window) bring more colonists to Mars than ever before. In 2060s the human population on Mars explodes from less than 10’000 to more than 50’000 with Mars City alone having 25’000.2070s Human outposts spreading past Mars The Free Spaceport of Phobos is the main supply node for human outposts on Ceres, Vesta, Pallas, asteroids in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. Cyanobacteria and methanogens are spread in lower regions of Mars to further increase the terraformation process. The old workhorse of human colonization of Mars the BFR family spaceships are finally retired completely. The oldest of them are 50 years old now. Mars City is expanded with two more domes of similar size and several smaller ones. There are 5 cities with large-scale domes now on Mars. All of them are interlinked with hyperloop lines. The cluster of Indian colonies on Mars is starting to specialize on growing food for human space outposts in Main asteroid belt and beyond, as Mars is the closest object to them with substantial gravity for growing crops. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to the moons of Saturn (Titan, Enceladus and other). Now almost all of space-faring nations are represented on Mars with a base, a city block or a corporate enterprise. In 2070s the human population on Mars expands from 50’000 to 200’000 with the largest colony Mars City having 60’000. Four more cities have a population of more than 15’000.2080s Mars gets its self-government First Martian Council, consisting of proportionally drawn representatives from every Martian city and base, is assembled on the principle of self-government. The Council deals with the issues important for all of the Martians (as ongoing terraformation initiatives or building a space elevator) and acts as a representative for Martian population in relations with the corporations and governments of Earth. As space elevators first on the Moon and then on Earth become operational, the cost of launching any mass to Mars and elsewhere into space is slashed considerably, greatly speeding up the use of space resources and space colonization. Almost all colonists have left the oldest sections of Mars City with their obsolete infrastructure; the area is declared now a national heritage site, preserving the 1st human colony on Mars as it was in the late 2040s. Tourism from Earth is becoming more and more mainstream. Now even a middle-class people can afford a trip to Mars. Despite criticism China builds the first prison on Mars. Soon other colonies are quietly sending there their criminals too. More powerful halocarbon factories are set up throughout Mars. The bacterial and lichen coverage around Martian surface is further increased. Connected base stations for downward and outward space elevators on Phobos are built; work begins to build both space elevators. The downward elevator will cut short of the upper edge of Mars’s atmosphere with a shuttle platform at its tip. The outward elevator will have several platforms at different points to catch and release payloads (including spaceships) to Earth’s system, to Main asteroid belt and to Jupiter’s system. Work begins to build a large shuttle port at the summit of the Martian volcano practically on the equator Pavonis Mons for shuttles heading to and coming from Phobos space elevator. In 2080s the human population on Mars expands from 200’000 to 500’000 with the largest of the Martian cities Mars City surging past 150’000 inhabitants. Particularly large colonial fleet arrives on 2082 when Earth and Mars is the closest since 2003, only 55.9 million kilometers (34.7 million miles) apart.2090s The millionth Martian The Phobos space elevator system is finished, greatly speeding up the colonization of Mars, interplanetary trade and the growth of human outposts in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. The shuttle port at the summit of Pavonis Mons quickly expands into one of the largest human colonies on Mars Pavonis City, which is soon connected with other major Martian cities by hyperloop lines. Establishment of Pavonis City greatly speeds up tourism in some of the most spectacular Martian regions nearby Tharsis Montes, Olympus Mons, Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris. Tourist bases and hotels are popping up there fast. One of the hyperloop lines runs through all the length of Valles Marineris. In an anticipation of air pressure and temperature increase, new human colonies are being set up mainly in the lower regions of Mars, particularly Hellas Planitia and Valles Marineris, where the results of terraformation activities will be felt first. In 2090s the human population on Mars reaches 1 million. Finally Elon Musk’s goal to put 1 million people on Mars is reached.22nd century Mars becomes independent

Mars becomes practically self-sufficient, having to import only the most complex goods and intellectual property.

The self-sufficiency results in Mars becoming an independent nation-state. The Martian government has to buy up the non-Martian governmental assets located on Mars.

As a technologically advanced frontier society Mars and orbital stations around it become the primary source of specialists and workers needed for human bases and missions further in Main asteroid belt and outer Solar system.

Air pressure and temperature on Mars is increased to the level where there is flowing water on the surface and simple plants can be introduced into newly created biosphere of the planet.

As one of the lower regions on Mars close to the equator Valles Marineris is seeing the most benefits from terraformation activities and Phobos space elevator; cities and farming communities are spreading throughout the valleys and at the end of the 22nd century there are nearly 5 million people living in Valles Marineris. It’s the most populous urban area on Mars.

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human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse.

There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to Mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

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Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Inspired from FutureTimeline.net and the Integrated Space Plan we have created a speculated timeline of human exploration and colonization of Mars. Predictions are based on a reasonably optimistic evaluation of technological and social progress of humanity. Only the most important and innovative events are mentioned. Timeline is regularly updated taking into account latest developments.Last update was made on 18th May, 2018.2010s The Mars hype is there2016 Elon Musk reveals SpaceX plans for the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS, formerly known as Mars Colonial Transporter).2016 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter enters Mars orbit, but Schiaparelli lander crashes on the surface of Mars.2017 Elon Musk updates SpaceX vision “to make life multiplanetary” and colonize Mars (with Big Falcon Rocket architecture, formerly known as Interplanetary Transport System or ITS).2018 NASA’s InSight lander lands on Mars at Elysium Planitia.2020s Preparing for human arrival2020 Through the Commercial Crew Program NASA awards several companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, to develop and build a lander/ascent vehicle(s) capable to land on the Moon and bring back to Lunar orbit at least 4 astronauts no later than 2028.2021 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars rover lands on Mars at Oxia Planum.2021 NASA’s Mars 2020 rover lands on Mars to collect samples for later retrieval. A small reconnaissance drone-helicopter accompanies the rover.2021 First Chinese orbiter, lander and rover reaches Mars.2021 United Arab Emirates Hope probe enters Mars orbit.2022 SpaceX’s BFR prototype booster and cargo spaceship makes first orbital test flight around Earth.2023 India’s Mangalyaan 2 orbiter and lander reaches Mars.2025 Japan&France’s Martian Moons Explorer lands on Phobos to collect samples and return them to Earth in 2029.2026 First SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship successfully tested.2026 A communications relay satellite is placed at Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L5 to overcome the problem of periodic communications blackout with spacecrafts temporary behind the Sun.2026 Core structure of international Lunar Orbital Gateway completed in Lunar orbit.2027 Two demonstration BFR cargo spaceships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human colony on Mars; both ships have a small nuclear power reactor in cargo and an automatic atmospheric propellant plant to produce oxygen and methane from Martian atmosphere.2027 NASA&ESA’s sample return orbiter (with broadband laser communications capability) and lander (with Mars ascent vehicle and a sample collection rover) reaches Mars to retrieve samples collected by Mars 2020 rover and launch them back to Earth.2028 Separated by several months SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship and Blue Origin’s and Lockheed Martin’s manned landers land on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to establish the first human outpost on the Moon.2028 After the ground tests are done in both places the final location of future “Mars City” is selected. Filled with local propellant the one BFR spaceship not on the selected location launches from Mars and successfully lands back on Earth the next year.2029 Two unmanned BFR spaceships land at the selected location of Mars City: a backup crew ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner/tunneling droids, solar panels and parts for a modular habitat for the first human mission.2030s First human base on Mars2030 Several basic landing pads prepared robotically at Mars City location for the human mission next year.2031 On a mission supported by NASA two SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceships with 12 astronauts each land at Mars City first humans on Mars. The crewed ships are accompanied with a few cargo ships, including one with machinery for a ground-based In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system.2031 The first modular habitat and a solar array is built.2032 After the best location is confirmed a small-scale mining of water ice starts near the Mars City base. Ground-based ISRU system with atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water, nitrogen, argon and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.2032 Several landing/launch pads for future BFR missions are built a few miles from Mars City base.2033 2 of the 3 landed BFR crew spaceships and all of the landed cargo spaceships, except the first one with nuclear power reactor and atmospheric propellant plant on-board, launch back to Earth unmanned.2033 2nd crew of ~30 astronauts and workers aboard a BFR spaceship lands at Mars City. NASA’s research Mars Surface Field Station is established at Mars City. A hydroponic greenhouse is built to provide Mars City with locally grown vegan food. “The Mars Society” establishes its first chapter on Mars :)2034 Small-scale Martian soil extraction, chemical separation and storage equipment is assembled; the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.2034 Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at Mars City and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.2035 First fully occupied BFR spaceship with 100 scientists and colonists lands at Mars City.2035 NASA’s Mars Surface Field Station is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).2036 First orbital fuel depot for hydrolox rocket engines completed at Low Earth orbit. The hydrogen and oxygen is provided from the Moon and Near Earth asteroids.2036 The ISRU capabilities of Mars City are extended not only to produce air, water and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement, basic fertilizers, plastics and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial size 3D printers are also assembled.2037 BFR spaceship with 100 human colonists and workers lands at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 200.2037 A constellation of satellites with global positioning system (GPS) and global communications system is placed in high orbit around Mars by BFR cargo spaceship. Now it’s hard to get lost on Mars; possibly only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.2038 Cyanobacteria is introduced into the ISRU processes of Mars City.2038 A fish farm is built at Mars City to provide more diverse local food for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.2039 A transparent, radiation-filtering geodesic dome with garden is built at Mars City; work begins to build a new underground section of Mars City with larger habitats and working areas to boost the population capacity of the colony to 1000.2039 First child is born on Mars at Mars City. His voyage to Earth later in his life would be dangerous because of his bones and organs not being fit for Earth’s gravity.2040s Mars gets its orbital space station2040 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 human colonists, workers and some wealthy tourists land at Mars City.2041 The new underground section of Mars City is finished. Now the colonists have a lot spacier living and working quarters with full radiation protection.2041 Cultured meat “farm” is built at Mars City, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of the colonists.2041 Virgin Galactic establishes the first luxury hotel at the outskirts of Mars City.2042 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 passengers land at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 500.2042 On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies Blue Origin’s manned spaceship reaches Mars orbit near Phobos with first modules for Free Spaceport of Phobos project which will be a space station with several spinning sections with Mars-level artificial gravity of 0.38g and serveas a way station and fuel&repairs depot for manned and unmanned spaceships heading for Mars, Main asteroid belt and beyond.2042 International human mission to Phobos and Deimos, operated by Blue Origin from Free Spaceport of Phobos construction place.2043 Several small proxy bases for scientific, mining and other purposes are established within a few tens of miles from Mars City.2043 First mass driver constructed on the Moon at Shackleton Crater’s base to launch harvested oxygen and hydrogen for storage at Lunar Orbital Gateway and fuel depot at Low Earth orbit.2044 First BFR Heavy spaceships with 300 passengers land at Mars City. Among them is SpaceX’s founder Elon Musk. BFR Heavy is an enlarged and upgraded version of BFR with a 15m core booster and a lot spacier living quarters for passengers.2045 Large deposit of minerals with high concentration of rare metals is discovered a few hundred miles from Mars City. A research Mining Base Beta is established.2045 Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and propellant needs of nearby Free Spaceport of Phobos.2045 A land trip all around the Mars is completed for the 1st time.2046 BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City bringing parts for a nuclear fusion reactor as well.2046 With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational. Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt now is rapidly expanding.2046 Blue Origin’s lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best location for Blue Mars base (in addition to Blue Origin’s already developed Blue Moon base).2047 The landing pads a few miles from Mars City where BFR crew and cargo spaceships has landed and taken off for two decades are transformed into a small spaceport with pressurized skybridges for both passengers and cargo.2047 A regular transport route between Mars City and Mining Base Beta is established.2048 A short hyperloop line from Mars City to its spaceport is finished.2048 Several BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City and another one with 100 (mostly miners) at the Mining Base Beta. The population of the Mars City now surpasses 1200 with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 200 at Mining Base Beta.2048 Blue Origin’s spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at Free Spaceport of Phobos; workers are shuttled down to establish the Blue Mars base about thousand miles from Mars City.2049 A nuclear fusion power station is operational at Mars City.2049 A new underground section of Mars City is finished, boosting its population capacity to 3000.2050s When bases grow into colonies2050 With increased electrical power the ISRU and industrial capabilities of Mars City are greatly extended, using the resources harvested and refined around Mars City and nearby proxy bases. Solar panel assembly factory is the first factory on Mars manufacturing complex products.2050 Earth and Mars is the closest ever since the beginning of the colonization. The largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at Mars City, 200 at Mining Base Beta and 100 at Blue Mars base.2051 Mass driver at human base in Sea of Tranquility on the Moon constructed to launch harvested helium-3 for usage in fusion power plants.2051 With China and Russia focusing on the Moon, India is the first Asian superpower to establish its own base on Mars.2052 International human mission to Ceres (flying with a new generation nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at Free Spaceport of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at Mars City and take additional crew members from Mars.2053 1500 colonists land at Mars City and Mining Base Beta and 150 at Blue Mars base. There are now more than 4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface of Mars.2053 At an impact crater near the Mars City work begins to build the first large-scale dome on Mars, covering the entire crater more than a mile across.2054 A deuterium separation facility becomes operational at Mars City.2055 As more colonists land at Mars City it reaches its maximum population capacity. More habitats are built at the outskirts of Mars City, at its proxy bases and Mining Base Beta to support the influx of colonists.2055 Several more Blue Origin’s shuttles land at Blue Mars base, boosting its population to more than 500. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.2055 Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor, China establishes its first colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.2056 The rover repair depot at Mars City is upgraded to a Tesla rover factory.2056 A regular transport route between Mars City and Blue Mars base is established.2056 The large-scale transparent, radiation-filtering, light-weight dome is finished and pressurized at Mars City, covering an area of more than one square mile; workers move in now to construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below the dome.2057 The new generation of SpaceX’s nuclear fusion powered spaceships arrive at the Free Spaceport of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of Mars City and Mining Base Beta. All the BFR family spaceships are retired from SpaceX fleet after 33 years of successful service and sold to Brazil.2058 Mars City’s dome is finished, having a maximum population capacity of 20’000.2058 A hyperloop line and a heavy cargo train tracks are built between the Mars City and the industrial complex at Mining Base Beta.2059 SpaceX’s nuclear spaceships take more colonists to Mars City, bringing its population to 7000.2059 First Brazilian BFR Heavy spaceship lands at Mars City. One of nearby proxy bases is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.2059 United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars the New Dubai.2060s Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars Mars City’s population reaches the level you can’t anymore made the decisions by corporate hierarchy or direct democracy only. First city council on Mars is elected. The expanded Free Spaceport of Phobos more and more serves as a space logistics hub not only for colonies on Mars but for mining activities in Main asteroid belt as well. Several more advanced nations begins participating in the spaceport project.Several more orbital space stations are completed for in-space manufacturing, tourism and other purposes. First humans born on Mars travel to Earth using exoskeletons as body-support because of Earths heavier gravity. Commercial companies from various nations open their branches and operations on Mars. Tourism from Earth is expanding on Mars. Although the trip is still expensive and only the rich can afford it. Besides its high-tech cities and bases Mars can offer spectacular safari rides and if you are really wealthy you can hire some of the guides to take you to the caldera of Olympus Mons, depths of Valles Marineris or other exclusive locations. A second large-scale dome on Mars is built at Blue Mars. A hyperloop line is built between Mars City and Blue Mars. First measures to start the terraforming process of Mars are made, powdering Martian polar ice caps with black lichen to reduce their albedo and melt the ice and building automatic halocarbon factories throughout Mars to produce and release super-greenhouse gases in Martian atmosphere. Artificial magnetic field generator is placed at Sun-Mars Lagrangian point L1 to shield Mars from solar radiation with the generated magnetotail and help the terraformation process of the planet. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to Galilean moons of Jupiter. Nuclear fusion powered spaceships (greatly reducing the travel time from Earth and widening the launch window) bring more colonists to Mars than ever before. In 2060s the human population on Mars explodes from less than 10’000 to more than 50’000 with Mars City alone having 25’000.2070s Human outposts spreading past Mars The Free Spaceport of Phobos is the main supply node for human outposts on Ceres, Vesta, Pallas, asteroids in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. Cyanobacteria and methanogens are spread in lower regions of Mars to further increase the terraformation process. The old workhorse of human colonization of Mars the BFR family spaceships are finally retired completely. The oldest of them are 50 years old now. Mars City is expanded with two more domes of similar size and several smaller ones. There are 5 cities with large-scale domes now on Mars. All of them are interlinked with hyperloop lines. The cluster of Indian colonies on Mars is starting to specialize on growing food for human space outposts in Main asteroid belt and beyond, as Mars is the closest object to them with substantial gravity for growing crops. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to the moons of Saturn (Titan, Enceladus and other). Now almost all of space-faring nations are represented on Mars with a base, a city block or a corporate enterprise. In 2070s the human population on Mars expands from 50’000 to 200’000 with the largest colony Mars City having 60’000. Four more cities have a population of more than 15’000.2080s Mars gets its self-government First Martian Council, consisting of proportionally drawn representatives from every Martian city and base, is assembled on the principle of self-government. The Council deals with the issues important for all of the Martians (as ongoing terraformation initiatives or building a space elevator) and acts as a representative for Martian population in relations with the corporations and governments of Earth. As space elevators first on the Moon and then on Earth become operational, the cost of launching any mass to Mars and elsewhere into space is slashed considerably, greatly speeding up the use of space resources and space colonization. Almost all colonists have left the oldest sections of Mars City with their obsolete infrastructure; the area is declared now a national heritage site, preserving the 1st human colony on Mars as it was in the late 2040s. Tourism from Earth is becoming more and more mainstream. Now even a middle-class people can afford a trip to Mars. Despite criticism China builds the first prison on Mars. Soon other colonies are quietly sending there their criminals too. More powerful halocarbon factories are set up throughout Mars. The bacterial and lichen coverage around Martian surface is further increased. Connected base stations for downward and outward space elevators on Phobos are built; work begins to build both space elevators. The downward elevator will cut short of the upper edge of Mars’s atmosphere with a shuttle platform at its tip. The outward elevator will have several platforms at different points to catch and release payloads (including spaceships) to Earth’s system, to Main asteroid belt and to Jupiter’s system. Work begins to build a large shuttle port at the summit of the Martian volcano practically on the equator Pavonis Mons for shuttles heading to and coming from Phobos space elevator. In 2080s the human population on Mars expands from 200’000 to 500’000 with the largest of the Martian cities Mars City surging past 150’000 inhabitants. Particularly large colonial fleet arrives on 2082 when Earth and Mars is the closest since 2003, only 55.9 million kilometers (34.7 million miles) apart.2090s The millionth Martian The Phobos space elevator system is finished, greatly speeding up the colonization of Mars, interplanetary trade and the growth of human outposts in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. The shuttle port at the summit of Pavonis Mons quickly expands into one of the largest human colonies on Mars Pavonis City, which is soon connected with other major Martian cities by hyperloop lines. Establishment of Pavonis City greatly speeds up tourism in some of the most spectacular Martian regions nearby Tharsis Montes, Olympus Mons, Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris. Tourist bases and hotels are popping up there fast. One of the hyperloop lines runs through all the length of Valles Marineris. In an anticipation of air pressure and temperature increase, new human colonies are being set up mainly in the lower regions of Mars, particularly Hellas Planitia and Valles Marineris, where the results of terraformation activities will be felt first. In 2090s the human population on Mars reaches 1 million. Finally Elon Musk’s goal to put 1 million people on Mars is reached.22nd century Mars becomes independent

Mars becomes practically self-sufficient, having to import only the most complex goods and intellectual property.

The self-sufficiency results in Mars becoming an independent nation-state. The Martian government has to buy up the non-Martian governmental assets located on Mars.

As a technologically advanced frontier society Mars and orbital stations around it become the primary source of specialists and workers needed for human bases and missions further in Main asteroid belt and outer Solar system.

Air pressure and temperature on Mars is increased to the level where there is flowing water on the surface and simple plants can be introduced into newly created biosphere of the planet.

As one of the lower regions on Mars close to the equator Valles Marineris is seeing the most benefits from terraformation activities and Phobos space elevator; cities and farming communities are spreading throughout the valleys and at the end of the 22nd century there are nearly 5 million people living in Valles Marineris. It’s the most populous urban area on Mars.

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human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse. There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

Continued here:

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

human Mars: Mars Colonization Timeline

Inspired from FutureTimeline.net and the Integrated Space Plan we have created a speculated timeline of human exploration and colonization of Mars. Predictions are based on a reasonably optimistic evaluation of technological and social progress of humanity. Only the most important and innovative events are mentioned. Timeline is regularly updated taking into account latest developments.Last update was made on 12th May, 2018.2010s The Mars hype is there2016 Elon Musk reveals SpaceX plans for the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS, formerly known as Mars Colonial Transporter).2016 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter enters Mars orbit, but Schiaparelli lander crashes on the surface of Mars.2017 Elon Musk updates SpaceX vision “to make life multiplanetary” and colonize Mars (with Big Falcon Rocket architecture, formerly known as Interplanetary Transport System or ITS).2018 NASA’s InSight lander lands on Mars at Elysium Planitia.2020s Preparing for human arrival2020 Through the Commercial Crew Program NASA awards several companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, to develop and build a lander/ascent vehicle(s) capable to land on the Moon and bring back to Lunar orbit at least 4 astronauts no later than 2028.2021 ESA&Roscosmos’s ExoMars rover lands on Mars at Oxia Planum.2021 NASA’s Mars 2020 rover lands on Mars to collect samples for later retrieval. A small reconnaissance drone-helicopter accompanies the rover.2021 First Chinese orbiter, lander and rover reaches Mars.2021 United Arab Emirates Hope probe enters Mars orbit.2022 SpaceX’s BFR prototype booster and cargo spaceship makes first orbital test flight around Earth.2023 India’s Mangalyaan 2 orbiter and lander reaches Mars.2025 Japan&France’s Martian Moons Explorer lands on Phobos to collect samples and return them to Earth in 2029.2026 First SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship successfully tested.2026 A communications relay satellite is placed at Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L5 to overcome the problem of periodic communications blackout with spacecrafts temporary behind the Sun.2026 Core structure of international Lunar Orbital Gateway completed in Lunar orbit.2027 Two demonstration BFR cargo spaceships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human colony on Mars; both ships have a small nuclear power reactor in cargo and an automatic atmospheric propellant plant to produce oxygen and methane from Martian atmosphere.2027 NASA&ESA’s sample return orbiter (with broadband laser communications capability) and lander (with Mars ascent vehicle and a sample collection rover) reaches Mars to retrieve samples collected by Mars 2020 rover and launch them back to Earth.2028 Separated by several months SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceship and Blue Origin’s and Lockheed Martin’s manned landers land on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to establish the first human outpost on the Moon.2028 After the ground tests are done in both places the final location of future “Mars City” is selected. Filled with local propellant the one BFR spaceship not on the selected location launches from Mars and successfully lands back on Earth the next year.2029 Two unmanned BFR spaceships land at the selected location of Mars City: a backup crew ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner/tunneling droids, solar panels and parts for a modular habitat for the first human mission.2030s First human base on Mars2030 Several basic landing pads prepared robotically at Mars City location for the human mission next year.2031 On a mission supported by NASA two SpaceX’s BFR crew spaceships with 12 astronauts each land at Mars City first humans on Mars. The crewed ships are accompanied with a few cargo ships, including one with machinery for a ground-based In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system.2031 The first modular habitat and a solar array is built.2032 After the best location is confirmed a small-scale mining of water ice starts near the Mars City base. Ground-based ISRU system with atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water, nitrogen, argon and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.2032 Several landing/launch pads for future BFR missions are built a few miles from Mars City base.2033 2 of the 3 landed BFR crew spaceships and all of the landed cargo spaceships, except the first one with nuclear power reactor and atmospheric propellant plant on-board, launch back to Earth unmanned.2033 2nd crew of ~30 astronauts and workers aboard a BFR spaceship lands at Mars City. NASA’s research Mars Surface Field Station is established at Mars City. A hydroponic greenhouse is built to provide Mars City with locally grown vegan food. “The Mars Society” establishes its first chapter on Mars :)2034 Small-scale Martian soil extraction, chemical separation and storage equipment is assembled; the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.2034 Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at Mars City and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.2035 First fully occupied BFR spaceship with 100 scientists and colonists lands at Mars City.2035 NASA’s Mars Surface Field Station is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).2036 First orbital fuel depot for hydrolox rocket engines completed at Low Earth orbit. The hydrogen and oxygen is provided from the Moon and Near Earth asteroids.2036 The ISRU capabilities of Mars City are extended not only to produce air, water and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement, basic fertilizers, plastics and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial size 3D printers are also assembled.2037 First child is born on Mars at Mars City. His voyage to Earth later in his life would be dangerous because of his bones and organs not being fit for Earth’s gravity.2037 BFR spaceship with 100 human colonists and workers lands at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 200.2037 A constellation of satellites with global positioning system (GPS) and global communications system is placed in high orbit around Mars by BFR cargo spaceship. Now it’s hard to get lost on Mars; possibly only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.2038 Cyanobacteria is introduced into the ISRU processes of Mars City.2038 A fish farm is built at Mars City to provide more diverse local food for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.2039 A transparent, radiation-filtering geodesic dome with garden is built at Mars City; work begins to build a new underground section of Mars City with larger habitats and working areas to boost the population capacity of the colony to 1000.2040s Mars gets its orbital space station2040 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 human colonists, workers and some wealthy tourists land at Mars City.2041 The new underground section of Mars City is finished. Now the colonists have a lot spacier living and working quarters with full radiation protection.2041 Cultured meat “farm” is built at Mars City, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of the colonists.2041 Virgin Galactic establishes the first luxury hotel at the outskirts of Mars City.2042 Two more BFR spaceships with 200 passengers land at Mars City, which now has a population of more than 500.2042 On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies Blue Origin’s manned spaceship reaches Mars orbit near Phobos with first modules for Free Spaceport of Phobos project which will be a space station with several spinning sections with Mars-level artificial gravity of 0.38g and serve as a way station and fuel&repairs depot for manned and unmanned spaceships heading for Mars, Main asteroid belt and beyond.2042 International human mission to Phobos and Deimos, operated by Blue Origin from Free Spaceport of Phobos construction place.2043 Several small proxy bases for scientific, mining and other purposes are established within a few tens of miles from Mars City.2043 First mass driver constructed on the Moon at Shackleton Crater’s base to launch harvested oxygen and hydrogen for storage at Lunar Orbital Gateway and fuel depot at Low Earth orbit.2044 First BFR Heavy spaceships with 300 passengers land at Mars City. Among them is SpaceX’s founder Elon Musk. BFR Heavy is an enlarged and upgraded version of BFR with a 15m core booster and a lot spacier living quarters for passengers.2045 Large deposit of minerals with high concentration of rare metals is discovered a few hundred miles from Mars City. A research Mining Base Beta is established.2045 Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and propellant needs of nearby Free Spaceport of Phobos.2045 A land trip all around the Mars is completed for the 1st time.2046 BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City bringing parts for a nuclear fusion reactor as well.2046 With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational. Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt now is rapidly expanding.2046 Blue Origin’s lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best location for Blue Mars base (in addition to Blue Origin’s already developed Blue Moon base).2047 The landing pads a few miles from Mars City where BFR crew and cargo spaceships has landed and taken off for two decades are transformed into a small spaceport with pressurized skybridges for both passengers and cargo.2047 A regular transport route between Mars City and Mining Base Beta is established.2048 A short hyperloop line from Mars City to its spaceport is finished.2048 Several BFR Heavy spaceships with 400 passengers land at Mars City and another one with 100 (mostly miners) at the Mining Base Beta. The population of the Mars City now surpasses 1200 with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 200 at Mining Base Beta.2048 Blue Origin’s spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at Free Spaceport of Phobos; workers are shuttled down to establish the Blue Mars base about thousand miles from Mars City.2049 A nuclear fusion power station is operational at Mars City.2049 A new underground section of Mars City is finished, boosting its population capacity to 3000.2050s When bases grow into colonies2050 With increased electrical power the ISRU and industrial capabilities of Mars City are greatly extended, using the resources harvested and refined around Mars City and nearby proxy bases. Solar panel assembly factory is the first factory on Mars manufacturing complex products.2050 Earth and Mars is the closest ever since the beginning of the colonization. The largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at Mars City, 200 at Mining Base Beta and 100 at Blue Mars base.2051 Mass driver at human base in Sea of Tranquility on the Moon constructed to launch harvested helium-3 for usage in fusion power plants.2051 With China and Russia focusing on the Moon, India is the first Asian superpower to establish its own base on Mars.2052 International human mission to Ceres (flying with a new generation nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at Free Spaceport of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at Mars City and take additional crew members from Mars.2053 1500 colonists land at Mars City and Mining Base Beta and 150 at Blue Mars base. There are now more than 4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface of Mars.2053 At an impact crater near the Mars City work begins to build the first large-scale dome on Mars, covering the entire crater more than a mile across.2054 A deuterium separation facility becomes operational at Mars City.2055 As more colonists land at Mars City it reaches its maximum population capacity. More habitats are built at the outskirts of Mars City, at its proxy bases and Mining Base Beta to support the influx of colonists.2055 Several more Blue Origin’s shuttles land at Blue Mars base, boosting its population to more than 500. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.2055 Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor, China establishes its first colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.2056 The rover repair depot at Mars City is upgraded to a Tesla rover factory.2056 A regular transport route between Mars City and Blue Mars base is established.2056 The large-scale transparent, radiation-filtering, light-weight dome is finished and pressurized at Mars City, covering an area of more than one square mile; workers move in now to construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below the dome.2057 The new generation of SpaceX’s nuclear fusion powered spaceships arrive at the Free Spaceport of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of Mars City and Mining Base Beta. All the BFR family spaceships are retired from SpaceX fleet after 33 years of successful service and sold to Brazil.2058 Mars City’s dome is finished, having a maximum population capacity of 20’000.2058 A hyperloop line and a heavy cargo train tracks are built between the Mars City and the industrial complex at Mining Base Beta.2059 SpaceX’s nuclear spaceships take more colonists to Mars City, bringing its population to 7000.2059 First Brazilian BFR Heavy spaceship lands at Mars City. One of nearby proxy bases is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.2059 United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars the New Dubai.2060s Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars Mars City’s population reaches the level you can’t anymore made the decisions by corporate hierarchy or direct democracy only. First city council on Mars is elected. The expanded Free Spaceport of Phobos more and more serves as a space logistics hub not only for colonies on Mars but for mining activities in Main asteroid belt as well. Several more advanced nations begins participating in the spaceport project. First humans born on Mars travel to Earth using exoskeletons as body-support because of Earths heavier gravity. Commercial companies from various nations open their branches and operations on Mars. Tourism from Earth is expanding on Mars. Although the trip is still expensive and only the rich can afford it. Besides its high-tech cities and bases Mars can offer spectacular safari rides and if you are really wealthy you can hire some of the guides to take you to the caldera of Olympus Mons, depths of Valles Marineris or other exclusive locations. A second large-scale dome on Mars is built at Blue Mars. A hyperloop line is built between Mars City and Blue Mars. First measures to start the terraforming process of Mars are made, powdering Martian polar ice caps with black lichen to reduce their albedo and melt the ice and building automatic halocarbon factories throughout Mars to produce and release super-greenhouse gases in Martian atmosphere. Artificial magnetic field generator is placed at Sun-Mars Lagrangian point L1 to shield Mars from solar radiation with the generated magnetotail and help the terraformation process of the planet. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to Galilean moons of Jupiter. Nuclear fusion powered spaceships (greatly reducing the travel time from Earth and widening the launch window) bring more colonists to Mars than ever before. In 2060s the human population on Mars explodes from less than 10’000 to more than 50’000 with Mars City alone having 25’000.2070s Human outposts spreading past Mars The Free Spaceport of Phobos is the main supply node for human outposts on Ceres, Vesta, Pallas, asteroids in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. Cyanobacteria and methanogens are spread in lower regions of Mars to further increase the terraformation process. The old workhorse of human colonization of Mars the BFR family spaceships are finally retired completely. The oldest of them are 50 years old now. Mars City is expanded with two more domes of similar size and several smaller ones. There are 5 cities with large-scale domes now on Mars. All of them are interlinked with hyperloop lines. The cluster of Indian colonies on Mars is starting to specialize on growing food for human space outposts in Main asteroid belt and beyond, as Mars is the closest object to them with substantial gravity for growing crops. The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to the moons of Saturn (Titan, Enceladus and other). Now almost all of space-faring nations are represented on Mars with a base, a city block or a corporate enterprise. In 2070s the human population on Mars expands from 50’000 to 200’000 with the largest colony Mars City having 60’000. Four more cities have a population of more than 15’000.2080s Mars gets its self-government First Martian Council, consisting of proportionally drawn representatives from every Martian city and base, is assembled on the principle of self-government. The Council deals with the issues important for all of the Martians (as ongoing terraformation initiatives or building a space elevator) and acts as a representative for Martian population in relations with the corporations and governments of Earth. As space elevators first on the Moon and then on Earth become operational, the cost of launching any mass to Mars and elsewhere into space is slashed considerably, greatly speeding up the use of space resources and space colonization. Almost all colonists have left the oldest sections of Mars City with their obsolete infrastructure; the area is declared now a national heritage site, preserving the 1st human colony on Mars as it was in the late 2040s. Tourism from Earth is becoming more and more mainstream. Now even a middle-class people can afford a trip to Mars. Despite criticism China builds the first prison on Mars. Soon other colonies are quietly sending there their criminals too. More powerful halocarbon factories are set up throughout Mars. The bacterial and lichen coverage around Martian surface is further increased. Connected base stations for downward and outward space elevators on Phobos are built; work begins to build both space elevators. The downward elevator will cut short of the upper edge of Mars’s atmosphere with a shuttle platform at its tip. The outward elevator will have several platforms at different points to catch and release payloads (including spaceships) to Earth’s system, to Main asteroid belt and to Jupiter’s system. Work begins to build a large shuttle port at the summit of the Martian volcano practically on the equator Pavonis Mons for shuttles heading to and coming from Phobos space elevator. In 2080s the human population on Mars expands from 200’000 to 500’000 with the largest of the Martian cities Mars City surging past 150’000 inhabitants. Particularly large colonial fleet arrives on 2082 when Earth and Mars is the closest since 2003, only 55.9 million kilometers (34.7 million miles) apart.2090s The millionth Martian The Phobos space elevator system is finished, greatly speeding up the colonization of Mars, interplanetary trade and the growth of human outposts in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter. The shuttle port at the summit of Pavonis Mons quickly expands into one of the largest human colonies on Mars Pavonis City, which is soon connected with other major Martian cities by hyperloop lines. Establishment of Pavonis City greatly speeds up tourism in some of the most spectacular Martian regions nearby Tharsis Montes, Olympus Mons, Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris. Tourist bases and hotels are popping up there fast. One of the hyperloop lines runs through all the length of Valles Marineris. In an anticipation of air pressure and temperature increase, new human colonies are being set up mainly in the lower regions of Mars, particularly Hellas Planitia and Valles Marineris, where the results of terraformation activities will be felt first. In 2090s the human population on Mars reaches 1 million. Finally Elon Musk’s goal to put 1 million people on Mars is reached.22nd century Mars becomes independent

Mars becomes practically self-sufficient, having to import only the most complex goods and intellectual property.

The self-sufficiency results in Mars becoming an independent nation-state. The Martian government has to buy up the non-Martian governmental assets located on Mars.

As a technologically advanced frontier society Mars and orbital stations around it become the primary source of specialists and workers needed for human bases and missions further in Main asteroid belt and outer Solar system.

Air pressure and temperature on Mars is increased to the level where there is flowing water on the surface and simple plants can be introduced into newly created biosphere of the planet.

As one of the lower regions on Mars close to the equator Valles Marineris is seeing the most benefits from terraformation activities and Phobos space elevator; cities and farming communities are spreading throughout the valleys and at the end of the 22nd century there are nearly 5 million people living in Valles Marineris. It’s the most populous urban area on Mars.

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Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse. There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

Originally posted here:

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse. There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

Continue reading here:

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse. There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

Original post:

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia

Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization. Mars’ surface conditions and past presence of water make it arguably the most hospitable planet in the Solar System besides Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v) to reach from Earth than any planet, except Venus.

Permanent human habitation on other planets, including Mars, is one of science fiction’s most prevalent themes. As technology advances, and concerns about humanity’s future on Earth increase, arguments favoring space colonization gain momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests, long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer curiosity.

Both private and public organizations have made commitments to researching the viability of long-term colonization efforts and to taking steps toward a permanent human presence on Mars. Space agencies engaged in research or mission planning include NASA, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. Private organizations include Mars One, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.

All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.

Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[3]

Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans embarking on the journey),[4] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015[update], is funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport System.[5][6]

2024- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for unmanned Mars landing in 2022 and manned Mars landing in 2024.[7]

As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in 2032.[8] A concept video was published in June 2012.[9] A subsequent concept video was released in September 2015.[10]

Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars’s similarities to Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[29] However, the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1%oxygen.

In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulated Martian conditions in the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).[30][31][32] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[33] They propose that cyanobacteria could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen, but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms, opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian resources.[33]

Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[34] The atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35km (114,000 feet) in 1961,[35] 38km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[36]

Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial environments.

The idea of using in-situ water has led to the idea of looking for drilling for water (frozen or otherwise) and this implementation was studied by NASA in the 2010s.[37]

Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov,[38] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[39] The longest time spent outside the protection of the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[40] planned by NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[41]

The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles. There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only 38% of that on Earth.[42] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse. There are also severe radiation risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight into the “radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and school performance”.[43] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in academic articles: “the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards than those that follow”.[43]

A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a mission that will last around 2 years. Crew members will experience a severe sense of isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays, new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members’ psychological health. Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on earth.[44] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also suggested in order to reorient people to society.

There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars’s surface, including the technologies needed to do so.[45]

Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220Gy (22mrad) equivalent to 0.08Gy per year.[46] A three-year exposure to such levels would be close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which are already present) would significantly lower the colonists’ exposure to radiation. Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA’s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[50] Initially, there was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[51] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[52] As a result of the higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that “Mars is not an easy place to visit with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources.”[52] NASA is exploring a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[52]

In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[53]

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months in space.[54] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function of what?] increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[55] and nuclear rockets. In the former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[56] and in the latter, a trip time down to about two weeks.[3] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to “as little as 72 hours” with the use of a “photonic propulsion” system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[57]

During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the probability is higher due to generally larger glandular tissues.[58]

Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about 0.6% of that on Earth.[59] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon or robotic missions on Mars.[60]

If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130 GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[61] A space elevator on Phobos has also been proposed.[62]

Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts. Required equipment will include:[3]

According to Elon Musk, “even at a million people [working on Mars] you’re assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars… You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth”.[65]

Machines/devices

Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.

The one-way communication delay due to the speed of light ranges from about 3 minutes at closest approach (approximated by perihelion of Mars minus aphelion of Earth) to 22minutes at the largest possible superior conjunction (approximated by aphelion of Mars plus aphelion of Earth). Real-time communication, such as telephone conversations or Internet Relay Chat, between Earth and Mars would be highly impractical due to the long time lags involved. NASA has found that direct communication can be blocked for about two weeks every synodic period, around the time of superior conjunction when the Sun is directly between Mars and Earth,[66] although the actual duration of the communications blackout varies from mission to mission depending on various factorssuch as the amount of link margin designed into the communications system, and the minimum data rate that is acceptable from a mission standpoint. In reality most missions at Mars have had communications blackout periods of the order of a month.[67]

A satellite at the L4 or L5 EarthSun Lagrangian point could serve as a relay during this period to solve the problem; even a constellation of communications satellites would be a minor expense in the context of a full colonization program. However, the size and power of the equipment needed for these distances make the L4 and L5 locations unrealistic for relay stations, and the inherent stability of these regions, although beneficial in terms of station-keeping, also attracts dust and asteroids, which could pose a risk.[68] Despite that concern, the STEREO probes passed through the L4 and L5 regions without damage in late 2009.

Recent work by the University of Strathclyde’s Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has suggested an alternative relay architecture based on highly non-Keplerian orbits. These are a special kind of orbit produced when continuous low-thrust propulsion, such as that produced from an ion engine or solar sail, modifies the natural trajectory of a spacecraft. Such an orbit would enable continuous communications during solar conjunction by allowing a relay spacecraft to “hover” above Mars, out of the orbital plane of the two planets.[69] Such a relay avoids the problems of satellites stationed at either L4 or L5 by being significantly closer to the surface of Mars while still maintaining continuous communication between the two planets.

The path to a human colony could be prepared by robotic systems such as the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity. These systems could help locate resources, such as ground water or ice, that would help a colony grow and thrive. The lifetimes of these systems would be measured in years and even decades, and as recent developments in commercial spaceflight have shown, it may be that these systems will involve private as well as government ownership. These robotic systems also have a reduced cost compared with early crewed operations, and have less political risk.

Wired systems might lay the groundwork for early crewed landings and bases, by producing various consumables including fuel, oxidizers, water, and construction materials. Establishing power, communications, shelter, heating, and manufacturing basics can begin with robotic systems, if only as a prelude to crewed operations.

Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander MIP (Mars ISPP Precursor) was to demonstrate manufacture of oxygen from the atmosphere of Mars,[70] and test solar cell technologies and methods of mitigating the effect of Martian dust on the power systems.[71][needs update]

Before any people are transported to Mars on the notional 2030s Interplanetary Transport System envisioned by SpaceX, a number of robotic cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[72] Equipment that would be necessary would include “machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet’s subsurface water ice” as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for initial agricultural areas.[73]

As with early colonies in the New World, economics would be a crucial aspect to a colony’s success. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate MarsEarth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Given its size and resources, this might eventually be a place to grow food and produce equipment to mine the asteroid belt.

A major economic problem is the enormous up-front investment required to establish the colony and perhaps also terraform the planet.

Some early Mars colonies might specialize in developing local resources for Martian consumption, such as water and/or ice. Local resources can also be used in infrastructure construction.[74] One source of Martian ore currently known to be available is metallic iron in the form of nickeliron meteorites. Iron in this form is more easily extracted than from the iron oxides that cover the planet.

Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[75] Assuming that life doesn’t exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.

Solar power is a candidate for power for a Martian colony. Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation. Sunlight on the surface of Mars would be much like a moderately cloudy day on Earth.[76]

Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[77][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800kg (50,300lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020kg (8,860lb) to mars,[78] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the “cheapest in the industry”.[79] SpaceX’s reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Interplanetary Transport System. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to “have a major impact on the cost of access to space”, and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[80]

Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[81]

Mars Odyssey found what appear to be natural caves near the volcano Arsia Mons. It has been speculated that settlers could benefit from the shelter that these or similar structures could provide from radiation and micrometeoroids. Geothermal energy is also suspected in the equatorial regions.[82]

Several possible Martian lava tube skylights have been located on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Earth based examples indicate that some should have lengthy passages offering complete protection from radiation and be relatively easy to seal using on-site materials, especially in small subsections.[83]

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craftand more thoroughly sterilized if they contact “special regions” containing water,[84][85] otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash).[86] There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet.[87] Human explorers would also be vulnerable to back contamination to Earth if they become carriers of microorganisms.[88]

One possible ethical challenge that space travelers might face is that of pregnancy during the trip. According to NASAs policies, it is forbidden for members of the crew to engage in sex in space. NASA wants its crewmembers to treat each other like coworkers would in a professional environment. A pregnant member on a spacecraft is dangerous to all those aboard. The pregnant woman and child would most likely need additional nutrition from the rations aboard, as well as special treatment and care. At some point during the trip, the pregnancy would most likely impede on the pregnant crew member’s duties and abilities. It is still not fully known how the environment in a spacecraft would affect the development of a child aboard. It is known however that an unborn child in space would be more susceptible to solar radiation, which would likely have a negative effect on its cells and genetics.[89] During a long trip to Mars it is likely that members of craft may engage in sex due to their stressful and isolated environment.[90]

It is unforeseen how the first human landing on Mars will change the current policies regarding the exploration of space and occupancy of celestial bodies. In the 1967, United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, it was determined that no country may take claim to space or its inhabitants. Since the planet Mars offers a challenging environment and dangerous obstacles for humans to overcome, the laws and culture on the planet will most likely be very different from those on Earth.[91] With Elon Musk announcing his plans for travel to Mars, it is uncertain how the dynamic of a private company possibly being the first to put a human on Mars will play out on a national and global scale.[92][93] NASA had to deal with several cuts in funding. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the objective for NASA to reach Mars was pushed to the background.[94] In 2017, president Donald Trump promised to return humans to the Moon and eventually Mars,[95] effectively taking action by increasing NASA budget with $1.1 billion,[96] and mostly focus on the development of the new Space Launch System.[97][98]

Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible. Mars One, which went public in June2012, aims to establish a fully operational permanent human colony on Mars by 2027 with funding coming from a reality TV show and other commercial exploitation, although this approach has been widely criticized as unrealistic and infeasible.[99][100][101]

Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the long-term goal of developing the technologies that will enable a self-sustaining human colony on Mars.[92][102] In 2015 he stated “I think we’ve got a decent shot of sending a person to Mars in 11 or 12years”.[103] Richard Branson, in his lifetime, is “determined to be a part of starting a population on Mars. I think it is absolutely realistic. It will happen… I think over the next 20 years, we will take literally hundreds of thousands of people to space and that will give us the financial resources to do even bigger things”.[104]

In June 2013, Buzz Aldrin, American engineer and former astronaut, and the second person to walk on the Moon, wrote an opinion, published in The New York Times, supporting a manned mission to Mars and viewing the Moon “not as a destination but more a point of departure, one that places humankind on a trajectory to homestead Mars and become a two-planet species.”[105] In August 2015, Aldrin, in association with the Florida Institute of Technology, presented a “master plan”, for NASA consideration, for astronauts, with a “tour of duty of ten years”, to colonize Mars before the year 2040.[106]

A few instances in fiction provide detailed descriptions of Mars colonization. They include:

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Colonization of Mars – Wikipedia


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