The controversy over the federal government's decision to granta $912 million contract to a charity with links to the prime minister's family opens Prime Minister Justin Trudeau up to the conclusionthat he violatedfederalethics rules athirdtime.
What impact could it have on public opinion?
Twice already, Canada's conflict of interest and ethics commissioner, has found the prime ministerviolated ethics rules. The first occasion was in 2017,when former commissioner Mary Dawson ruled onTrudeau and his family acceptinga vacation on the Aga Khan's private islandin the Bahamas.
The second occasion was just last year, whenthe current commissioner, MarioDion, found thatTrudeau had tried to influence then-justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybouldto overrule a decision not to grant a deferred prosecution agreement to SNC-Lavalin.
Dion alreadyhad announced he would be looking into the decision to grant the WE Charity a sole-sourced contract to administer the Canada Student Service Grant whenthe charity revealed it and its affiliates had paid the prime minister's mother and brother about $300,000 for speaking engagements over the last four years.
It takes time for the commissioner to complete an investigation. His office tweeted Friday that it usually takes about seven months. But if this scandal does any political damage to the prime minister and his party, it's likely to inflict it now and not when the commissioner finally releases a report.
That's what happened the last two times, at least.
The vacation on the Aga Khan's island in 2017 effectively ended Trudeau's post-election honeymoon. His party had racked up huge leads in the polls after its 2015 victory, surging to between 45 and 50 per cent support. According to the CBC's Poll Tracker, the Liberals had about 43.2 per cent support before the story about the vacation was first reported.
There was an immediate impact on Liberal support, with the party falling to 37.3 per cent over the subsequentsix weeks. Those 5.9 percentage points were never entirely recovered to this day, the Liberals have never hit 43.2 per cent in the Poll Tracker again.
Butwith a solid majority government, the Liberals had time on their side. By the beginning of February 2019, the party was still polling at 37.5 per cent support and in a decent position heading into an election year.
The SNC-Lavalin affair was a bombshell. Support for the Liberals plummeted, hitting a low of 29.6 per cent by the beginning of May. That loss of 7.9 points was not recovered in time for the October election, which saw the Liberals take 33.1 per cent of the vote.
Both of these ethics violations contributed to a segment of the Liberal Party's support base peeling off some of it temporarily, some of it for good.
It was easier for the Liberals to bounce back from the public opinion hit caused by the Bahamas trip. After just over four months, the Liberals were back up to 42.3 per cent support in the Poll Tracker a recovery of all but 0.9 percentage points of the initial 5.9-point loss. The Liberals were able to retain their lead over the Conservatives for another year until the prime minister's trip to India.
Making up the party's SNC-Lavalin losswas more difficult. After the story initially broke, the Liberals' polling peak came only eight months later, when the party hit 34.3 per cent support with just two weeks to go before voting day in October. By then, the Liberals had recovered just 3.2 points of their 7.9-point loss.
It took a global pandemic to push the Liberals above their pre-SNC-Lavalinlevel of support.
It wasn't until the beginning of April 2020 over a year after the Globe and Mail broke the SNC-Lavalin story that the Liberals surged past the 37.5 per cent support they had at the beginning of 2019.
The latest polling estimate gives the Liberals 40.4 per cent support and a 12.5-point lead over the Conservatives. With those kinds of numbers (drawn from polls conducted before the latest ethics controversy), the Liberals would be nearly assured of winning the majority government they failed to secure last year.
The question is what kind of impact this week's news will have on Liberal support an especially delicate question in a minority Parliament.
If the Liberals experience the same six-to-eight point slide, by the late summer or fall the party would find itself roughly back where it was last election night. All of the political capital the Liberals have gained over their handling of the COVID-19 outbreak would be gone. The odds of the Liberals calling an election on their own would be slim to none, and it would be up to the opposition parties to decide whether to take advantage of it by forcing another election themselves.
Not all controversieshave the same impacts,however.
When photos were published in the midst of the last campaign showing that Trudeau had worn blackface on multiple occasions before entering politics, there was enormous potential for a career-ending blow to the prime minister.
Instead, the Liberals saw their support hold steady. The party was polling at 34.2 per cent when the story broke. It only dropped by less than a percentage point a week later a loss the party made good two weeks after that.
The dynamics of the election campaign played an important role in the resilience of Liberal Party support, but polls and the party's own research suggested that Canadians didn't believe Trudeau was racist and felt he had made a sincere apology.
It's too early to plot the political ramifications of Trudeau's WE controversy. Canadians might not be paying attention to the same degree as they would if it weren't summer or if there wasn't a global pandemic to worry about. Nevertheless, the Bloc Qubcois is calling for the prime minister to step aside and the Conservatives want the police to investigate.
But in the court of public opinion, the decisive factor might prove to be whether after blackface and two prior ethics violations Canadians are still willing to give Trudeau the benefit of the doubt.
See the rest here:
Trudeau's past ethics transgressions hurt the Liberals. Will it happen again? - CBC.ca
- Paul Krugman - The Conscience of a Liberal - December 11th, 2016 [December 11th, 2016]
- Liberal Democrat Voice - December 11th, 2016 [December 11th, 2016]
- Urban Dictionary : liberal - December 12th, 2016 [December 12th, 2016]
- READ MORE : Liberal groups want delay of Sessions' hearing - January 5th, 2017 [January 5th, 2017]
- What Is a Liberal - What Is Liberal Bias - January 9th, 2017 [January 9th, 2017]
- Liberal Party of Australia - Wikipedia - February 1st, 2017 [February 1st, 2017]
- Conservatives reject liberal humor in Trump era: Dave Berg - USA TODAY - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Liberal Judicial Activism Borders On Insurrection - Daily Caller - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Liberal Fake News Reportedly Growing - Yahoo News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- House Science Chairman Sees Liberal Cover-Up on Warming Pause - Scientific American - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Furious Liberal MPs turn on 'rat' Cory Bernardi - The Australian Financial Review - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- 'Rallying point': Abbott to headline conservative Liberal fundraiser in Melbourne - The Age - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- I'm A Liberal, And I Want Milo Yiannopoulos On My Campus - Huffington Post - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Cory Bernardi says he resents being used in Liberal party 'proxy war' - The Guardian - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- HuffPo's New Editor In Chief Is Already Undoing Arianna's Liberal Legacy - Daily Caller - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Why Are Liberals Surprised by the Senate Confirmation of DeVos? - National Review - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Liberal Hashtag #NotMySuperBowlChamps Protests Patriots' Support of Trump - Fox News Insider - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- All liberals are hypocrites. I know because I am one - Quartz - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- '9th Circus'? Scholars Say Court's Liberal Rep Is Overblown - ABC News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Economic freedom - Wikipedia - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Liberal land - Richfield Reaper - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Liberal groups file lawsuit to block Trump's deregulation order - Washington Examiner - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Strategies for Saving the Liberal Arts - Inside Higher Ed (blog) - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- This day in Liberal Judicial ActivismFebruary 9 - National Review - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- The Marco Rubio knockdown of Elizabeth Warren no liberal media outlet will cover - Conservative Review - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker proposes surprisingly liberal budget - Chicago Tribune - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Why the liberal world order is worth saving - Irish Times - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Tim Scott reads racist tweets by 'liberal left' over support for Jeff Sessions - Washington Times - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Five tips on having a safe conversation with your liberal spouse or conservative brother - Fox News - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Why Liberal Policies Are Terrible For Young People - Power Line (blog) - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Trevor Bauer goes on long rant defending tweet about liberal bias - Yahoo Sports - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Liberal Tolerance: Sen. Tim Scott Reads His Hate Mail On Senate Floor For Supporting Sessions As AG - Townhall - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Claws Out For Ivanka Trump Show Liberal Love For Women Is A Sham - The Federalist - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Trump Takes a Running Whack at the Liberal Interventionists - The Nation. - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Networks Swoon Over GOP 'Feeling the Wrath' of Liberal Town Hall Protesters - NewsBusters (blog) - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Liberals, don't fall into the right's 'identity politics' trap - The Guardian - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Liberal pledge: Revamp for 69 outdated schools in $560 million spend - Perth Now - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Indians swept by Liberal in WAC action - Hays Daily News - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Trump's attacks on the press and how the liberal media myth has empowered him - Salon - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- The Paranoid Style of Anti-Trump Politics - National Review - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- What the Liberal-One Nation preference deal could mean at the ballot box - ABC Online - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Finley: Left bites Ivanka's liberal hand - The Detroit News - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- A new, liberal tea party is forming. Can it last without turning against Democrats? - Washington Post - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Since When Is Being a Woman a Liberal Cause? - The New York ... - New York Times - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- This liberal Brooklynite is on the hunt for conservative friends - New York Post - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Small-l liberal voters have been abandoned in the race to the right - The Sydney Morning Herald - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Rich, Liberal Celebrities Lecture and Claim to Stand for 'We the People' at the 2017 Grammys - NewsBusters (blog) - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- WA One Nation candidates refuse to preference Liberals - ABC Online - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- India's liberal bubble has shrunk to irrelevance in the age of Narendra Modi - Quartz - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Liberal superhero Justin Trudeau is not immune to the forces of Trump - CNN - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- A new satire must emerge one that breaks out of the liberal bubble - The Guardian - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- A liberal Tea Party, the pope helps spring a terrorist and other notable commentary - New York Post - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- At Ole Miss, a Liberal Agitator's Education - New York Times - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Liberal Frenzy: 'Impeach' Trump; 'Traitor! Resign by Morning' - CNSNews.com - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Chelsea Clinton future run for political shunned by liberal activists ... - Washington Times - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- One Nation could gain more than the Liberals from Western Australia seats deal - The Guardian - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Conservatives: Walker's budget plan is anything but 'liberal' - Watchdog.org - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Trump Says Liberal Media 'Going Crazy With Blind Hatred' - Daily Caller - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- I'm a bleeding-heart liberal cleric but the Church of England must not accept gay marriage - Telegraph.co.uk - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- What's a Liberal to Do When His Spouse Is a Trump Zealot? - New York Times - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Liberal Activists Join Forces Against a Common Foe: Trump - New York Times - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- John Howard backs Liberal preference deal with One Nation in WA - The Guardian - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Liberal ex-MP who called party a 'gay club' likely to be kicked out - The Australian Financial Review - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- New Liberal PAC Targets Democrats for Primaries - NBCNews.com - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- 'Liberals will continue to lose': Bill Maher defends Milo Yiannopoulos booking after panelist boycotts - Washington Post - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Whatever happened to liberal Democrats, anyway? - Chicago Tribune - Chicago Tribune - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Sportswriting Has Become a Liberal Profession Here's How It Happened - The Ringer (blog) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- If the Church of England continues to smother liberal Anglicans, it is heading for a split - Telegraph.co.uk - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Major liberal group opposes Gorsuch confirmation - USA TODAY - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- The True Origins of the Phrase 'Bleeding-Heart Liberal' - Atlas Obscura - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Liberals, Tories spar over Islamophobia motion in full-day debate - The Globe and Mail - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Where Have All the Liberal Democrats Gone? - Townhall - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Vicious attacks on Ivanka Trump exposes liberal hypocrisy - The Hill (blog) - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Can Emmanuel Macron win? Why France is ripe for a liberal resurgence - New Statesman - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Victorian Liberals: factional fight exposes deep divisions - The Age - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- 10 Unfortunate Liberal Myths Conservatives Often Believe - Observer - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Terri Lovell: Liberal oppression - Santa Clarita Valley Signal - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Where's the liberal outrage over civil liberties in the Flynn case? - Minneapolis Star Tribune - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Liberal, conservative Jews in US increasingly divided over Trump - Chicago Tribune - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Anti-Islamophobia debate might define both Liberals and Conservatives - CBC.ca - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]