After soaring in the polls for months thanks to the government's handling of the pandemic, support for the federal Liberals is now taking a hit from the WE Charity controversy.
But that outbreak-induced polling surge has provided Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with a bit of a cushion one that likelywould still win him an election if one were held today.
That may not be the case for very long if the Liberals can't arrest their slide in the polls, however.
After COVID-19 shut the country down, the Liberals saw their support increase significantly. It rose from just under 30 per cent in early March to over 40 per cent at the beginning of June, according to the CBC's Poll Tracker.
Since then, the Liberals have been dropping.
Four different pollsters have conducted surveys since July 13, when Trudeau first apologized for his failure to recuse himself from the decision to award the WE Charity the contract for a summer student grant program. They've all recorded drops in Liberal support.
Compared to surveys conducted before July3 when the government announced it was dropping its partnership with WE and the ethics commissioner said he was looking into the matter Abacus Data put the Liberals down four percentage points in its latest poll. The Innovative Research Group (IRG) had the Liberals down just a single point, while EKOS Research recorded the Liberals slipping six points.
The most recent survey, by Lger, put the Liberals down five points since the end of June ending a remarkably steady stream of polls showing the Liberals hovering around the 40 per cent mark.
On average, these four pollsters have put the Liberals down four points compared to pre-WE polling. The Conservatives, New Democrats and Bloc Qubcoiseach haveaveraged a gain of one point.
The Poll Tracker which is designed to react more slowly to new trends outside of the urgency of an election campaign has the Liberals down 2.3 points since their peak in early June.
Trudeau's own personal ratings have taken a bigger hit. According to Nanos Research's rolling four-week poll, Trudeau is the preferred choice as prime minister of 34 per cent of Canadians. That's down seven points from mid-June. The Angus Reid Institute (ARI), which pegged Trudeau's approval rating at 55 per cent in May, now puts it at 44 per cent.
It's clear that the WE controversy is at the root of this drop in support for both Trudeau and the Liberals. Among those polled by IRG who said they had read, heard or seen something about the prime minister in recent days, 72 per cent pointed to the WE controversy and among those people, 66 per cent said it gave them a less favourable impression of Trudeau, compared to just five per cent who said it improved their image of him.
While these shifts in public opinion are significant, they nevertheless leave the Liberals in a better position now than they were before the COVID-19 outbreak.
In early March, the Poll Tracker put the Liberals two percentage points behind the Conservatives in national support. The Poll Tracker currently puts theLiberal lead over the Conservatives at10 points. Even the worst recent poll for the Liberals still gave them a lead of three points.
With a 10-point lead, the Liberals would be favoured to win a majority government. But even if that lead was reduced to three points, the party likelywould still win a bigger minority government than the one it currently has(the Liberals lost the popular vote by 1.3 percentage points last October, after all).
Trudeau's own approval had fallen to 33 per cent in ARI's polling in February. It was 35 per cent just before the last election. While the prime minister's latest result of 44 per cent approval is the outcome ofa big reduction over the last few weeks, it's a number Trudeau would have been lucky to get last fall.
The reason that the picture for the Liberals is rosierthan it otherwise mightbe is that the governing party's main opponent is not taking advantage of its current troubles.
The Conservatives have the same level of support in the Poll Tracker now thatthey did when the Liberals were at their pandemic peak. No national poll has awarded them more than 31 per cent support among decided voters in over three months.
Regionally, the party is trailing the Liberals by double digits in the key battlegrounds of Ontario and British Columbia and has less support in Quebec than it did last fall.
The Conservatives' current lack ofa permanent leader undoubtedly is a handicap. Andrew Scheer, who announced in December he would resign once his replacement was chosen, has only become less popular since losing the election in October.
But it's not a given that his replacement will be better placed to capitalize on Liberal woes. Polling by Lger in June found that former cabinet minister Peter MacKay scored no better than a generic Conservative leader. Ontario MP Erin O'Toole, the other front-runner in the party's leadership race, did worse.
The latest survey from IRG found that fewer than 20 per cent of respondents held a favourable view of the two Conservative front-runners. Polls suggest Derek Sloan and Leslyn Lewis, the other two contestants, remain largely unknown to voters.
If the Liberals halt their slide in the polls, they could end the summer in a relatively decent position perhaps a better one than they could reasonablyhave expected to be in at the beginning of 2020.
But how likely is it that the party can stop the bleeding?
According to ARI, just 29 per cent of Canadians see the WE controversy as "overblown" and just 12 per cent believe it is a "simple mistake or error in judgment." The rest are split over whether it was criminal or merely unethical.
How that opinion splitsis important, though. It is predominantly Conservative supporters who see the government's actions as possibly criminal, while it's mostly Liberals and New Democrats who see it as unethical (but not criminal) or a simple mistake.
ARI found that Trudeau's approval ratings have taken the steepest dive among NDP and Conservativevoters. But they are still higher among these groups than they were before the pandemic.
Because of the political capital the Liberals have built up throughtheir handling of COVID-19, the party has a chance to weather this storm. While the Conservatives remain stagnant, the Liberal base is enough to win an election. The supporters they've picked up in the last few months the ones they have not lost because of the WE controversy over the last few weeks give them some wiggle room.
But the pandemic is also far from over and Canadians' views of the federal government's handling of the emergency are dimming. Lger found satisfaction with the government's management of the crisis is down six percentage points since the end of June to 73 per cent. Satisfaction with provincial and municipal handling of the outbreak has dropped just three points over that time.
And more political fallout from the WE controversy is likely; Trudeau will testify at committee on Thursday and the Bloc has announced it might try to force an election in the fall if Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau do not resign.
Still, despite the hits they've taken, the Liberals would be the favourites to win a snap vote now. But they'll lose that edge if the hits keep coming.
Follow this link:
- Paul Krugman - The Conscience of a Liberal - December 11th, 2016 [December 11th, 2016]
- Liberal Democrat Voice - December 11th, 2016 [December 11th, 2016]
- Urban Dictionary : liberal - December 12th, 2016 [December 12th, 2016]
- READ MORE : Liberal groups want delay of Sessions' hearing - January 5th, 2017 [January 5th, 2017]
- What Is a Liberal - What Is Liberal Bias - January 9th, 2017 [January 9th, 2017]
- Liberal Party of Australia - Wikipedia - February 1st, 2017 [February 1st, 2017]
- Conservatives reject liberal humor in Trump era: Dave Berg - USA TODAY - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Liberal Judicial Activism Borders On Insurrection - Daily Caller - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Liberal Fake News Reportedly Growing - Yahoo News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- House Science Chairman Sees Liberal Cover-Up on Warming Pause - Scientific American - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Furious Liberal MPs turn on 'rat' Cory Bernardi - The Australian Financial Review - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- 'Rallying point': Abbott to headline conservative Liberal fundraiser in Melbourne - The Age - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- I'm A Liberal, And I Want Milo Yiannopoulos On My Campus - Huffington Post - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Cory Bernardi says he resents being used in Liberal party 'proxy war' - The Guardian - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- HuffPo's New Editor In Chief Is Already Undoing Arianna's Liberal Legacy - Daily Caller - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Why Are Liberals Surprised by the Senate Confirmation of DeVos? - National Review - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Liberal Hashtag #NotMySuperBowlChamps Protests Patriots' Support of Trump - Fox News Insider - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- All liberals are hypocrites. I know because I am one - Quartz - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- '9th Circus'? Scholars Say Court's Liberal Rep Is Overblown - ABC News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Economic freedom - Wikipedia - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Liberal land - Richfield Reaper - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Liberal groups file lawsuit to block Trump's deregulation order - Washington Examiner - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Strategies for Saving the Liberal Arts - Inside Higher Ed (blog) - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- This day in Liberal Judicial ActivismFebruary 9 - National Review - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- The Marco Rubio knockdown of Elizabeth Warren no liberal media outlet will cover - Conservative Review - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker proposes surprisingly liberal budget - Chicago Tribune - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Why the liberal world order is worth saving - Irish Times - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Tim Scott reads racist tweets by 'liberal left' over support for Jeff Sessions - Washington Times - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Five tips on having a safe conversation with your liberal spouse or conservative brother - Fox News - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Why Liberal Policies Are Terrible For Young People - Power Line (blog) - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Trevor Bauer goes on long rant defending tweet about liberal bias - Yahoo Sports - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Liberal Tolerance: Sen. Tim Scott Reads His Hate Mail On Senate Floor For Supporting Sessions As AG - Townhall - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Claws Out For Ivanka Trump Show Liberal Love For Women Is A Sham - The Federalist - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Trump Takes a Running Whack at the Liberal Interventionists - The Nation. - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Networks Swoon Over GOP 'Feeling the Wrath' of Liberal Town Hall Protesters - NewsBusters (blog) - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Liberals, don't fall into the right's 'identity politics' trap - The Guardian - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Liberal pledge: Revamp for 69 outdated schools in $560 million spend - Perth Now - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Indians swept by Liberal in WAC action - Hays Daily News - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Trump's attacks on the press and how the liberal media myth has empowered him - Salon - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- The Paranoid Style of Anti-Trump Politics - National Review - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- What the Liberal-One Nation preference deal could mean at the ballot box - ABC Online - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Finley: Left bites Ivanka's liberal hand - The Detroit News - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- A new, liberal tea party is forming. Can it last without turning against Democrats? - Washington Post - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Since When Is Being a Woman a Liberal Cause? - The New York ... - New York Times - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- This liberal Brooklynite is on the hunt for conservative friends - New York Post - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Small-l liberal voters have been abandoned in the race to the right - The Sydney Morning Herald - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Rich, Liberal Celebrities Lecture and Claim to Stand for 'We the People' at the 2017 Grammys - NewsBusters (blog) - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- WA One Nation candidates refuse to preference Liberals - ABC Online - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- India's liberal bubble has shrunk to irrelevance in the age of Narendra Modi - Quartz - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Liberal superhero Justin Trudeau is not immune to the forces of Trump - CNN - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- A new satire must emerge one that breaks out of the liberal bubble - The Guardian - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- A liberal Tea Party, the pope helps spring a terrorist and other notable commentary - New York Post - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- At Ole Miss, a Liberal Agitator's Education - New York Times - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Liberal Frenzy: 'Impeach' Trump; 'Traitor! Resign by Morning' - CNSNews.com - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Chelsea Clinton future run for political shunned by liberal activists ... - Washington Times - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- One Nation could gain more than the Liberals from Western Australia seats deal - The Guardian - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Conservatives: Walker's budget plan is anything but 'liberal' - Watchdog.org - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Trump Says Liberal Media 'Going Crazy With Blind Hatred' - Daily Caller - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- I'm a bleeding-heart liberal cleric but the Church of England must not accept gay marriage - Telegraph.co.uk - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- What's a Liberal to Do When His Spouse Is a Trump Zealot? - New York Times - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Liberal Activists Join Forces Against a Common Foe: Trump - New York Times - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- John Howard backs Liberal preference deal with One Nation in WA - The Guardian - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Liberal ex-MP who called party a 'gay club' likely to be kicked out - The Australian Financial Review - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- New Liberal PAC Targets Democrats for Primaries - NBCNews.com - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- 'Liberals will continue to lose': Bill Maher defends Milo Yiannopoulos booking after panelist boycotts - Washington Post - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Whatever happened to liberal Democrats, anyway? - Chicago Tribune - Chicago Tribune - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Sportswriting Has Become a Liberal Profession Here's How It Happened - The Ringer (blog) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- If the Church of England continues to smother liberal Anglicans, it is heading for a split - Telegraph.co.uk - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Major liberal group opposes Gorsuch confirmation - USA TODAY - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- The True Origins of the Phrase 'Bleeding-Heart Liberal' - Atlas Obscura - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Liberals, Tories spar over Islamophobia motion in full-day debate - The Globe and Mail - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Where Have All the Liberal Democrats Gone? - Townhall - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Vicious attacks on Ivanka Trump exposes liberal hypocrisy - The Hill (blog) - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Can Emmanuel Macron win? Why France is ripe for a liberal resurgence - New Statesman - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Victorian Liberals: factional fight exposes deep divisions - The Age - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- 10 Unfortunate Liberal Myths Conservatives Often Believe - Observer - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Terri Lovell: Liberal oppression - Santa Clarita Valley Signal - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Where's the liberal outrage over civil liberties in the Flynn case? - Minneapolis Star Tribune - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Liberal, conservative Jews in US increasingly divided over Trump - Chicago Tribune - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Anti-Islamophobia debate might define both Liberals and Conservatives - CBC.ca - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]