The "lazy" and "self-indulgent" Liberal Party is facing an existential crisis after a horror week that exposed deep wounds from which it may never recover, the head of the influential Institute of Public Affairs think tank has warned.
John Roskam, who on Tuesday hosted Tony Abbott for a speech in which he directly challenged Malcolm Turnbull's policy agenda, on Friday blasted both men for failing to deliver philosophical direction to the party, and took aim at "so-called conservatives" Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann.
He said the significance of frontbencher Christopher Pyne's leaked comments was seismic because they addressed "the elephant in the room" of factional warfare and "let loose" the boiling tensions between moderates and conservatives.
While Mr Turnbull on Sunday clocked up one year since his narrow election victory, Mr Pyne's boasts of factional dominance and the promise of same-sex marriage "sooner rather than later" has sparked a furore over the direction of the government, the party and its leadership.
One minister privately predicted Malcolm Turnbull could face a leadership spill by Christmas - though that view is not widely shared, and even conservative members of cabinet believe sticking with the prime minister is the best option.
"What the Liberal Party faces is verging on an existential crisis. How this resolves itself, no-one knows," Mr Roskam said on Friday.
"When the Liberal Party raises taxes, increases government spending, imposes extra regulations and red tape and does not stand up on key cultural questions you must ask the question: is the Liberal Party as we've known it since the 1940s exhausted?"
Time would tell if the party would survive, he said, but it "has had too big a monopoly on centre-right thinking in Australia for too long" and "at times it has been lazy and self-indulgent".
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The IPA has deep links with the Liberal Party and Mr Roskam is well connected with MPs, but they have had major disagreements over superannuation, free speech and Mr Roskam's repeated failure to win preselection in Victoria.
He principally blamed "Turnbull and the cabinet" for the party's problems, and was critical of Mr Dutton and Mr Cormann, declaring "the so-called conservatives in cabinet have been completely ineffectual when it comes to economics" and labelling Mr Dutton's citizenship reforms "tokenistic".
Meanwhile, Mr Turnbull will use Sunday's 12 month election anniversary to emphasise his policy achievements, including company tax cuts, childcare changes, Snowy Hydro 2.0 and intervention in the gas market.
In a social media message, Mr Turnbull will claim to have delivered "real results [and] strong outcomes, not just headlines and press statements". "I'm not interested in politics, or the personalities of politics," he will say.
But the political drama of this week meant even the government's major victory on Gonski 2.0 was short-lived. Mr Roskam described the $23 billion school funding injection as "a complete capitulation to the left" and "nothing other than political expediency".
Right-wing voters would be entitled to seek refuge in David Leyonhjelm's Liberal Democrats and Cory Bernardi's Australian Conservatives, he said, and fighting off that challenge "requires a great degree of leadership which frankly so far has been lacking".
Asked about his own role in giving Mr Abbott a platform to stir leadership strife, Mr Roskam said it was "essential" to air an alternative policy manifesto. But he echoed ministers' criticism that the former PM never implemented those ideas while he was in power.
One minister told The Sunday Age it was inconceivable Mr Abbott had not planned the timing of this week's white-anting by lining up speeches at think tanks amid his usual spots on talkback radio.
Asked to gauge how widespread the malaise was within the Liberal party room, Mr Roskam said: "A lot of MPs actually don't want to face these questions. When they take more than a few moments to think about it, the truth is perhaps too confronting to be contemplated."
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