COVID-19 has not ravaged all industries with equal ferocity.

Some, such as the health care industry, movie streaming services, and oddly enough the sex industry, have weathered the storm and even prospered. Others have been dealt such vicious blows that it will be a miracle if they survive at all. The cruise industry is one example.

Around the world, ports are choked with massive cruise ships lying at anchor in bloated rows. In many cases, their crew are not allowed onshore for fear of spreading the virus. These vessels cost tens of thousands of dollars per day just to exist, even if they dont go anywhere. Power, insurance premiums, salaries and other costs rack up even when the ship is idle. Obviously, as is the case with most large assets, the ships need to be full and engaged in their primary function, the more often the better.

As the navies of the world are painfully learning, ships are petri dishes for the nurturing and spreading of diseases. Many people crammed into a restricted space guarantees that what one has, all catch.

The cruise industry has shut down for its own good for the last several months. The question is, where does it go from here? Will there even be a cruise industry when the Covid crisis has passed? There are two competing opinions, but they share one common idea: the cruise industry as we know it is a thing of the past.

One group believes that public mistrust of crowded spaces will keep people away to the point that the industry will collapse. Ships have the added liability in that, once an outbreak does occur, a person cannot easily escape it as can be done on land. The public remembers that in the early days of the Covid crisis, the entire compliment of passengers and crew of a cruise ship was forced to stay aboard in a port in Japan. For the first month of the quarantine, people who were not infected could not escape from those who were. They were doomed to breathe the same air and eat the same food, virtually guaranteeing they would also fall victim, which many of them did.

Another group believes the industry will make needed changes and ultimately survive, although in radically altered form. The cruise ship of the future will likely be smaller and yet more spacious, giving passengers the added peace of mind that they are not breathing each others air. Cruise companies will likely reduce fares in an effort win back passengers, no small feat considering the reduction in passengers. What both sides agree on is that the gigantic, bloated, 5,000-person, floating fraternity parties are a thing of the past. I, for one, say good riddance.

To me, the massive cruise ship was the very definition of hedonism. I could not, in good conscience, partake of an orgy of gluttony while others go hungry or sleep in dirt. Im not being sanctimonious, Im being relevant. My wife and I always thought that if we did go on a cruise someday, it would be a smaller vessel that travelled to somewhere interesting, the Alaskan coast or Great Barrier Reef perhaps, not the kind of ship that features 24-hour buffets and stops at a different island ports so passengers can buy the t-shirt of the day.

The cruise industry will either disappear or transform into a leaner, more responsible version of itself. Either one will be better than what we have now.

BC Cook, PhD lived on Saipan and has taught history for 20 years. He currently resides on the mainland U.S.

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BC's Tales of the Pacific | Is this the end of the cruise industry? - Marianas Variety