by Clifford F. Thies

West Virginia will indeed have an election to choose the fill-in for the late Senator Robert Byrd. As of today (Thursday, the 22nd, with filing continuing through 5 pm tomorrow), candidates include Governor Joe Manchin on the Democratic side and businessman John R. Raese on the Republican side. Two other Democrats and three other Republicans have also filed, meaning that each party will determine its nominee in the special primary to be held in August.

As prognosticated by RealClearPolitics, the Republicans are favored to pick up 4 seats held by Democrats (AR, DE, IN and ND), with 7 other seats held by Democrats in the toss-up category (CA, CO, IL, NV, PA, WA, WI). Assuming Republicans hold all their seats and pick up the four Democratic seats in which they are favored, they would need another six seats to win control of the Senate. While there are idiosynchantic elements in Senate races, during the past several election cycles we have seen that almost all of the close races fall the same way. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to think that the Republicans could "run the table," or nearly so, the way the Demorcrats did in 2006 and 2008.

West Virginia, while tabbed by RealClearPolitics as "Likely Democrat," adds to the possibilities. The very fact that an election is being held in a state that is trending Republican in Presidential elections although heavily Democratic in state elections, in a state that is highly vulnerable to the Green agenda of the Democratic Party, and with a Republican candidate who can largely self-finance his own campaign, complicates things for the Democrats. Can they really presume that the "popular, conservative" Governor will win the race; or, will they have to devote resources to the Mountaineer state that could otherwise be directed to other contests?

The West Virginia and Oregon Senate seats are long-shots in terms of Republican prospects. But, with continued softness in the economy, either one could prove to be Plan B in the event one or two of the toss-up states fall through our hands in an otherwise strong Republican year.