Opinion: The sky is not falling on the dollar – Idaho State Journal

The day after President Joe Biden announced his run for a second term, Donald Trump responded with a string of false statements. Here is just one of them: The dollar will soon no longer be the world standard, which will be our greatest defeat in over 200 years.

When I searched for the source of this alarming prediction, the first to come up was a precious metals/cryptocurrency website. There are still people (most famously libertarian Ron Paul) who still believe in the gold standard, and the principal goal of the crypto people is to replace the dollar.

Britain survived its currency crisis

Economist Paul Krugman believes that these fears are overblown, but, just for an exercise, he wants us to consider the case of Britain. Until 1949 the British pound ruled the financial world. Until then one would have paid about $5 for 1, but now it costs $1.26. The dollar is now at its highest level against all major currencies since 2014.

To back up the pound after World War II, the Bank of England liquidated assets in the colonies as its empire collapsed. Even so, Britain survived, and its post-war economy was guided competently by both the Labor and Conservative parties.

Since 2010, however, the Conservatives have cut funds to social services, especially universal health care. (Until recently this system produced better results than the U.S. for six major diseases.) As a result, Britain was ill prepared for the pandemic.

London still remains the top financial center in the world, but banks are now leaving the city primarily because of Brexit. The effects of the libertarian-led campaign to quit the European Union are now the greatest threat to the nation.

Among the top seven most wealthy countries, Britain is the only one, according to the International Monetary Fund, that will suffer a recession this year. Incredibly, the IMF predicts that Britains economic prospects are worse than those of sanction-hit Russia.

Japan survived its crisis, too

In the 1980s, Japan was predicted to rise to the top of the worlds economies. Instead, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates too quickly and the result was a real estate and banking crisis. Major banks were nationalized and deficit spending was increased.

When I was on sabbatical in Japan in 1993, the Japanese yen was at a low point. Even so, Japan outpaced Germany and Britain and remained the worlds second largest economy from 1990 to 2010, when a rising China took that spot behind the U.S.

Japan: Worlds highest debt

By 2011, Japans national debt had grown to 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It is now an incredible 266 percent and some economists say that this simply cannot be sustained. This means that Japans debt is 2.66 times what it produces. The U.S. debt now stands at 128 percent.

Three factors are mitigating the effects of this huge debt. 1) Ninety percent of it is owned by the Japanese people (versus 77 percent for Americans). 2) Japans high-quality exports (cars and machinery) will keep hard currency coming into its coffers for the foreseeable future. Japan will also repatriate profits from its American car production. 3) One commentator states: Japan is the world's biggest creditor, holding more than $3 trillion in net assets in foreign currency reserves and direct investment abroad.

Republicans add to the debt, too

Every week I tear out the economic indicators page from The Economist, which has information for 44 nations. Just a quick look at the data for April 22 puts the lie to Trumps claims and predictions, particularly his allegation that high national debt will doom the dollar.

By the way, Trumps budget deficit was -14.4 percent (Bidens is -5.2 percent), and he added $7.9 trillion to our national debt. Unfunded tax cuts, which never improve the economy, and defense increases are major parts of our debt. Even though we were way ahead of the Soviet Union in new weapon systems, Ronald Reagan called for unnecessary defense expenditures that tripled the national debt.

Debt does not destroy economies

Currently, Japans economic statistics are just as good as other rich countries. Economic growth has slowed worldwide. It is only Britain, according to the International Monetary, that is, under conservative mismanagement, predicted to fall into recession. Its lower national debt (81 percent of GDP) presumably, is not a buffer against negative growth.

Europe and Asia

Europe also proves that there is no apparent correlation between slow growth and high national debt. Greece (206 percent) and Italy (156 percent) are doing just as well as low debt countries. In fact, perennial economic powerhouse Germany (60 percent debt) now joins Britain in negative growth for 2023.

Lets look at two economic tigers in Asia: Singapore and Hong Kong. They rank third and fourth as world financial centers. The formers debt is 131 percent while the latters is 42 percent. Their superb economic performance on growth, unemployment, and annual budget deficit is about the same.

Republicans are the main threat

The most immediate threat to the U.S. and world economy is the GOPs refusal to raise the debt ceiling. Because of their intransigence in the battle over the debt ceiling in 2011, the governments credit rating was downgraded for the first time in history. This increased the cost of borrowing, and it also undermined international confidence that the U.S. could pay its debts.

The Republicans were playing a dangerous game then, and McCarthy's tribe is now courting disaster. As Paul Krugman states: Who will trust the currency of a nation that appears to have politically lost its mind?

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Opinion: The sky is not falling on the dollar - Idaho State Journal

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