All the pundits are calling Pinellas County's big-money, nationally watched congressional election a razor-thin contest that could go to the Democrats or Republicans.

But this analysis leaves out a key factor named Lucas Overby.

He's a Libertarian who has been in the race longer than either Democrat Alex Sink or Republican David Jolly, and who participated in all three candidate debates alongside the other two.

Most polls give Overby 4 to 7 percent of the vote, with one setting his support at 12 percent. With a neck-and-neck race between Jolly and Sink, will Overby's campaign impact Tuesday's results?

"Absolutely," said Darryl Paulson, professor emeritus of government at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg. "The big question is what kind of impact?"

Paulson said he's not sure he buys conventional wisdom, which suggests he would draw supporters more heavily from Jolly than Sink. The reasoning behind that is the Libertarian Party's stance against over-regulation and big government bureaucracy appeals to people who would otherwise vote Republican.

Libertarian candidates can also attract younger and more Democratic voters, Paulson said, because of the party's support of decriminalizing marijuana, same sex marriage, and more.

"Overby could really have some negative impact on the Sink campaign," he said, "but nobody knows."

Overby himself has a different view.

"Victory is very possible," he said this week, "it is very realistic for us to win."

See more here:

In Pinellas congressional race, could a Libertarian decide the outcome?