PRIMARY ELECTION ANALYSIS

From Cliff Thies:

Based on nearly complete results, it is clear that the paths to victory were different for the two candidates we backed in South Carolina. In the Gubernatorial race, Nikki Haley won by basically getting the same number of people to vote for her in the run-off that she got to vote for her in the first round. Her opponent improved on his initial showing but only slightly. Nikki's percentage jumped from 49 to 65 percent because of the drop-off in voter participation by about 20 percent.

In the First Congressional District race, Tim Scott tremendously increased his vote count. Paul Thurmond also increased his vote, but by nowhere near as much. As the drop-off in votes was about the same in the 1st C.D. as statewide, there is no reason to think Scott's improvement was because of new found enthusiasm for him among the district's black votes, who constitute 20 percent of the electorate and who vote overwhelmingly Democratic. I would be interested in seeing if poll-watchers have any direct information regarding this. On the basis of the statistics, I would say that Scott simply got a lot of the Republicans who voted for other candidates in the first round to back him the second round.

Note - 4th place finisher Katherine Jenerette, a libertarian Republican, enthusiastically threw her support to Scott for the run-off.