Photo: Sandy Huffaker/AFP/Getty Images
The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group has a new survey of the electorate that explodes many of the myths that we believe about American politics. Lee Drutman has a fascinating report delving into the data. I want to highlight a few of the most interesting conclusions in the survey.
1. The Democratic Party is not really divided on economics. You think the Bernie Sanders movement was about socialism? Not really. Sanders voters have the same beliefs about economic equality and government intervention as Hillary Clinton supporters. On the importance of Social Security and Medicare, Sanders voters actually have more conservative views:
Where they mainly differ is on international trade and the question of whether politics is a rigged game. The ideological content of Sanderss platform is not what drew voters. It was, instead, his counter-positioning to Clinton as a clean, uncorrupted outsider.
2. Fiscal conservativesocial liberals are overrepresented. The study breaks down the beliefs of voters in both parties by income. The parties tend to cohere pretty tightly rich Republicans are much closer to poor Republicans than either is to the Democrats; and rich Democrats and poor Democrats share more in common than either does with Republicans.
Still, there are important differences. The richest members of both parties have more economically conservative and socially liberal views than the poorest members. That gives them disproportionate influence over their agendas and priorities.
3. Libertarians dont exist. Well, obviously, they exist just not in any remotely large enough numbers to form a constituency. Its not just hardcore libertarians who are absent. Even vaguely libertarian-ish voters are functionally nonexistent.
The study breaks down voters into four quadrants, defined by both social and economic liberalism. But virtually everybody falls into three quadrants: socially liberal/economically liberal; socially conservative/economically conservative; and socially conservative/economically liberal. The fourth quadrant, socially liberal/economically conservative, is empty:
The libertarian movement has a lot of money and hardcore activist and intellectual support, which allows it to punch way above its weight. Libertarian organs like Reason regularly churn out polemics and studies designed to show that libertarianism is a huge new trend and the wave of the future. Sometimes, mainstream news organizations buy what theyre selling. But the truth is that the underrepresented cohort in American politics is the opposite of libertarians: people with right-wing social views who support big government on the economy.
4. Trump won by dominating with populists. Republicans always need to do reasonably well with populists, which is why theres always a tension between the pro-government leanings of a large number of their voters and the anti-government tilt of the party agenda. The key to Trumps success was to win more populists than Mitt Romney had managed. The issues where 2012 Obama voters who defected to Trump diverge from the ones who stayed and voted for Clinton are overwhelmingly related to race and identity.
As Drutman notes, Among populists who voted for Obama, Clinton did terribly. She held onto only 6 in 10 of these voters (59 percent). Trump picked up 27 percent of these voters, and the remaining 14 percent didnt vote for either major party candidate. What makes this result fascinating is that, in 2008, Clinton had positioned herself as the candidate of the white working class and she dominated the white socially conservative wing of her party. But she lost that identity so thoroughly that she couldnt even replicate the performance of a president who had become synonymous with elite social liberalism.
Every election is different. But to the extent that 2016 has an ideological lesson for Democrats, it is that the subject the party is currently debating within itself whether or how far left to move on economics is irrelevant to its electoral predicament. The issue space where Clinton lost voters who had supported Obama was in the array of social-identity questions, revolving around patriotism and identity.
They may not need to solve this problem Trumps failures may well solve it for them. And to some extent, moral commitments to social justice may preclude the party from moving to the center on some or all of their social policies. But to the extent Democrats want to optimize their party profile to make Trump a one-term president, the social issues are where they need to focus.
Assads decision to test U.S. pilots last weekend suggests we cant keep the U.S. fight against ISIS separate from the Syrian conflict any longer.
The press secretary may no longer be doing his daily briefings.
Otto Warmbier came back to the United States last week in a coma, after being imprisoned in North Korea for 17 months.
The court handed down rulings that could make the Washington Redskins and anyone blocked on Twitter by Donald Trump very happy.
The GOP leader is trying to keep everyone guessingmost recently with reports the Senate will vote on health care legislation next week.
Jon Ossoffs race against Karen Handel in Georgia is the first test.
The defender of the citys old guard is anonymous no more.
It is well established that states cannot draw district lines to disadvantage racial minorities. Political minorities have no such protection yet.
As the special counsel looks into Kushners finances, the White House adviser is searching to add a courtroom litigator to his legal team.
The suspect is reportedly dead, but no cops or bystanders were harmed.
Time to scratch at least he wont start a war with Russia from your list of upsides to the Trump presidency.
Ten people were injured and one death at the scene may be related to the attack. Witnesses said the driver shouted that he wanted to kill Muslims.
The production closed Sunday night.
A Seattle mother reports a burglary. Police shoot her. Meanwhile, Trump wants to stop reforms of police brutality.
Critics said the edited version offered a decent overview of the Infowars host but still had journalistic shortcomings.
En Marche defeated the two establishment parties, though turnout was at a record low.
A new survey of the electorate explodes many of the myths we believe about American politics.
In a race thats too close to call, both parties are seeing a potential harbinger for what will happen in the 2018 midterms.
Sunday saw some unprecedented escalations in Syrias long conflict, including a cross-border Iranian ballistic missile strike on ISIS.
Original post:
New Study Shows What Really Happened in the 2016 Election - New York Magazine
- KISS Army horing the US Army - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Post-Election: Liberal Columnist Peter Beinart says GOP now has a "libertarian thrust" - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels goes Libertarian: Orders 10% Cut for State Agencies - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Libertarian Group calls for Apology from Obama for his insulting and inappopriate Remarks after Ft. Hood - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Now the responsibility of American Muslims is to expose the Radical Jihadists among us - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Lt. Col. Ralph Peters on Hasan, calling it like it is - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Rush County Residents Start Effort to Organize County - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Libertarian Party of Marion County Announces Second Annual Canned Food Drive - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Cato: Federal Education Results Prove the Framers Right - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Bell: If a picture is worth a thousand words, what's a word worth?... - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Maguire: How I will Vote on Wishard This Tuesday - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Contrary to Popular Belief... There IS an Election TODAY - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- That Would be Perfect: Stop the RTA - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Press Release: Libertarian Party Reaction to Voters Defeating the RTD - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- An Easy Way To Email Your Senators on Obamacare and Responsible Energy Policy - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Bell Curve: Oh yeah, that's a lot better... Property Tax "solution" Destroying Indiana Small Business - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Libertarian City Councilman Mark Byrne, Port Huron, MI wins endorsement of Local Paper for Reelection - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- WASHINGTON STATE: Race for King County Executive one to watch - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Closeted Republican could be elected Atlanta's next Mayor - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Obama will own a Corzine loss - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Jason Shih, Photo of Corzine Staffer busted for Drugs - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Sarah Palin blasts Biden over Energy Hypocrisy - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Murder in Arizona: Father runs over Daughter in so-called "Honor Killing," she had become "too Westernized" - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Races to Watch for Libertarian Republicans 2009 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- HUGE NEWS OUT OF TEXAS!! Scores of Democrat County Officials Switch to Republican - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Chris Christie Wins!!! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Dedicated to Governor-Elect Chris Christie and the Citizens of the Great State of New Jersey - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Republicans win 6 new Seats in Virginia House of Delegates - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Post-Election Party Switchers from Democrat to Republican: 8 so far in Texas - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Libertarian Party Election Results: 5 Victories, 1 Heartbreaking Loss, 1 Big 2nd place finish - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Rand Paul questioned on his Libertarian ties, Father's controversial Foreign Policy views - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Libertarian "RINO" wins County Council seat in Erie, Pennsylvania - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Republicans sweep Westchester County, New York on Anti-Tax message - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- GOP Congressional candidate Alan West says Fort Hood tragedy "proof" Jihadists infiltrating our Military - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- TEXAS STATE REPRESENTATIVE SWITCHES TO REPUBLICAN!!! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Minnesota DFL may have a Big Problem on its hands for 2010: Lynne Torgerson - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- New Poll: 39% of Israelis believe Obama is a Muslim - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- Since Obama elected "Worst Year" for Homegrown Islamic Terrorism - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- A Pro-Islamist President? Obama's ties to the Muslim World exposed - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- Libertarian Party of Marion County Holds Holiday Party to Benefit Second Helpings - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Tippecanoe County Libertarian Party Plans to Walk in Christmas Parade - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- NRA: Bloomington, Indiana Herald-Times Treats Law-Abiding Gun Owners like Registered Sex Offenders! - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Kole Hard Facts of Life: Great Post On Copenhagen Global Warming Issues - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- SchansBlog: ClimateGate extravaganza - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Scherschel: A Letter to the Editor of the Bloomington Herald Times - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Press Release: Libertarian Party of Johnson County Wants Voters To Decide on Jail Expansion - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- LPIN HQ Seeks Interns in 2010 - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Cato: More Federal Health Care Fraud - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Indiana Election Division Releases Important 2010 Election Guides - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad preparing Holy War against the United States - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Pro-Liberty Students in Iran Protest Against the Government - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- It's Official! Tea Party Movement founded by Libertarian Republicans and that settles it! - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Good news for Republicans against Dodd; All three GOPers come out ahead - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Massachusetts GOP: We have a candidate - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Libertarian Republican bloggers discuss Climategate, Health Care and Hot Political Races - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Panel votes against Impeachment for Libertarian Republican Gov. Mark Sanford - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Reid Senate Plan includes Individual Mandates: $750 Fine for Non-Compliance - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- OHIO: More gains in latest poll for Fiscal Conservative John Kasich - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Yet another bigtime incumbent Dem calls it quits; Rep. Brian Baird (WA) faced increasingly tough Reelection - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- RCP running average for Obama Approvals drops to 48.9% - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Sarah Palin, Ron Paul ticket 2012? Sarah on Top - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Libertarians attacked by Leftists at Welcoming Event in Copenhagen - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Baucus mistress Melodee Hanes sleeping her way to the Top - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Not the First Time Baucus has had a Sex Scandal: Harrassment Allegations back in 1999 - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Baucus "Bimbo Eruption" gains Criticism back Home; Calls for his Resignation - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Senator DeMint officially endorses Michael Williams for US Senate - Texas - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- WISCONSIN: Terri McCormick for Congress - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Nancy Pelosi as Stalin: One California Korean-American says it fits - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Abolish Medicare says Glenn Beck - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Glenn Beck on Barbara Walters: Describe my politics? "Libertarian, Maximum Freedom" - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Obama is a Muslim entering Pop Culture - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Fed Bureaucrats get big raise in Compensation: Private Sector workers grow Poorer - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Obama Administration launches Massive Assault on Financial Privacy - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Tucker Carlson to launch new Journalist Website: Promises not to "suck up" to Obama - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Michele Bachman: Time to KILL SOCIALISM! - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- IDAHO: Democrat switches to Republican to run against libertarian-leaning Dem Rep. Walt Minnick - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Did the Missoulian cover up for the Max Baucus Affair? - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- And now some good old-fashioned Hardcore Right-wing Punk Rock from Wyoming - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Obama's approval ratings take another dip at RCP - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Adam Andrzejewski for Illinois Governor: Deserving of Conservative and Libertarian support - December 15th, 2009 [December 15th, 2009]