Rand Pauls plan to get himself elected president relies on two long-shot bets coming true.

So far, neither one seems to be going well.

Pauls first wager is that his libertarian-ish ideas will manage to attract Republicans mad about regulation and Democrats mad about government spying forming an entirely new American voting bloc. The leave-me-alone coalition, Paul calls it.

The second bet is a bet on Paul himself a wager that hes an unusually talented politician persuasive enough to build a coalition out of groups that have never viewed themselves as allies.

This week, Pauls ideas put him at the middle of a national controversy when he applied his trademark libertarian, skeptical thinking to the question of childhood vaccines. They should be largely voluntary, Paul said, as a matter of freedom. He also said he had heard of children who wound up with profound mental disorders after vaccines.

At times, he has seemed uninterested in or unprepared for the basic tasks of being a national politician.

For instance, this week he shushed a female interviewer on national TV. After his vaccine comments drew angry reactions, he accused the media of misconstruing his remarks about vaccines and mental disorders.

I did not say vaccines caused disorders, just that they were temporally related, Paul said in a statement. I did not allege causation.

Paul could not be reached for comment for this article, and e-mails seeking comment from aides at his political action committee, RANDPAC, were not returned. A spokesman for Pauls Senate office, when asked whether Paul could comment about his missteps this week, wrote back with a one-word message.

Seriously? spokesman Brian Darling wrote.

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For Rand Paul, a rude awakening to the rigors of a national campaign