Of two competing theories, the simpler explanation is to be preferred, wrote William of Ockham, an injunction that someWestern analystsand military leaders seem to have forgotten. After Russia sent troops into Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, many in NATO convinced themselves that Moscows next target would be the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The more logical inference is that Russia has military ambitions in the Black Sea region and that Western Alliance members should turn their focus thence.
There are three main reasons the Baltics are not the area of strategic vulnerability that some believe. First, Narva is not next, and it never was. The alleged threat of separatism from Russian-speakers in the Baltics is overblown. Despite tensions in the early 1990s, which culminated with a July 1993 autonomy referendum in Estonias third-largest city, Baltic Russian-speakers have never been the fifth column that some imagine them to be. And despite the persistence of restrictive citizenship laws for Russian-speakers in Latvia and Estonia, both governments have done an admirable job of addressing the social and economic concerns of their Russian-speaking regions, and of giving even non-citizens the right to vote in local elections.
Next, NATOs presence in the Baltics and Poland is the right size: large enough to present a credible deterrent to Russia, but not large enough to present an offensive military threat. NATO was right to beef up its presence in the Baltics after 2014. After all, the three tiny Alliance members are simply incapable of defending themselves alone in the unlikely event of war with Russia. But deployingseven full brigadestotaling 40,000 to 50,000 troops, as some analysts suggest, would be destabilizing. Russia would doubtless perceive this deployment as an offensive threat and increase its forces in response. The four NATO battle groups currently deployed one each to the three Baltic republics and Poland are important for their composition as much as their size. These5,000-plus troops could do no more than delay a Russian incursion while NATO deployed reinforcements. But the fact that 24 of the 30 NATO members contribute forces to the Alliances Enhanced Forward Presence mission makes it clear to Russia that NATO is united in its determination to defend the Baltics, and that war there means war with nearly all of NATO.
Lastly, there is no indication that Moscow has any intention of invading the Baltics. Russia has always seen the Baltics as different from the rest of the former Soviet Union. In short, when the Kremlin looks at Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania it sees Europe, and it had always played by different rules in Europe than in its self-designated near abroad. Anatol Lieven remarked on this Russian tendency in his book The Baltic Revolution:A large proportion of Baltic Russians have been prepared to acknowledge that the Balts have a superior civic culture, are cleaner, more orderly and harder working. They may qualify this by saying that Russian life is friendlier, or more humane, but this is the exact reverse of the usual colonizer: colonized self-images.
Russias behavior toward the Baltic States immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union made clear the extent to which it treats them differently. As it was intervening on behalf of separatist movements in Georgia and Moldova, it scrupulously avoided escalating the situation with the Russian-speaking minorities in Latvia and Estonia. Despite the fact that Moscow was exceptionally unhappy with the treatment of Russians speakers there, and had military forces deployed to both countries until 1994, it always expressed its grievances through official, institutional channels instead of trying to rally the Russian-speaking minorities to violence or intervening directly as it did elsewhere.Rather than fixate on the Baltics, where the threat is low and a deterrent force is in place, NATO should pay more attention to the Black Sea region. It is here that Russia has already intervened militarily, and is attempting to fracture the Alliance and erode confidence in its commitments. The Black Sea region also serves as the hub for Russias recent expansion into the Eastern Mediterranean and is critical to its efforts to support its intervention in Syria.
There are four main reasons the Black Sea region demands more attention.
First, three of the six littoral states Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey are NATO members and two Ukraine and Georgia were promised membership in 2008. Whether the Alliance should have committed to membership for Ukraine and Georgia is no longer relevant; it made the commitment and routinely reiterates it at NATO summits. Every year that the fear of Russias reaction delays progress on bringing Kyiv and Tbilisi into NATO erodes confidence in NATOs other commitments.
Next, an examination of Russian military activities in the last decade-plus leads to the conclusion that the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean is the area of greatest geopolitical importance for Russia. All of its military interventions in this period Georgia, Ukraine and Syria have occurred in this region, and Moscow clearly intends to challenge the West in this part of the world. NATO provides the best vehicle to meet this challenge and protect the important national interests Western states have in this region.
Third, the increasing alignment between Russia and Turkey deserves immediate and serious attention from all NATO capitals. If Moscow is able to pull Ankara into a strategic partnership that distances it from NATO, the security of the Alliance and all its members would suffer significantly. Turkey is ranked the worlds 11th-most powerful military by theGlobal Firepower Index. It has the second-largest overall military in NATO, after the U.S. Ankara is the second-largest land power in the Alliance, has the third-largest air force, and fields the fourth-largest navy. It is far from certain that a Russia-Turkey entente will endure: the two are on the opposite sides of the Libyan civil war, and their cooperation in Syria may still collapse over the issue of Idlib and the fate of Assad. And Ankara is an unpredictable and often frustrating ally. But neither the uncertainty of the Russia-Turkey rapprochement nor Turkeys erratic behavior outweigh its clear strategic importance to NATO. In addition to the military power it possesses, it anchors the Alliances southeastern flank and hosts bases critical to the projection of NATO power in the Black Sea region and beyond.
Finally, the Black Sea is an emerging energy hub that could allow Europe to diversify its energy sources away from Russia. But Turkey is key here, as well. The Turkish port of Ceyhan is the terminus of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which brings Azerbaijani oil to the world market. And Turkeys development of gas pipelines, storage facilities, and liquid natural gas terminals position it as apowerful middleman and alternative to Russia in energy supplies to Europe. With energy security an increasingly important component of national security, the emergence of the Black Sea as an energy hub provides an important opportunity for NATO members to erode Russias ability to use energy as a weapon in its foreign policy.
NATO has it right in the Baltics. Its presence is sized for the threat large enough to present a credible deterrent, too small to pose an offensive military threat and activate the security dilemma, causing Russia to increase its own forces in response. And NATO has been vigilant in exercising what it would take to rapidly reinforce the Baltics, through exercises likeDefender 2020. Before it was scaled back due to the coronavirus pandemic, Defender 2020 was billed as the third-largest exercise in Europe since the end of the Cold War. Plans for Defender 2021 are already underway.
The Black Sea region needs more attention. As Ben Hodges former U.S. Army-Europe commander and his co-authors argue, NATO should use theEnhanced Forward Presencemodel it deployed in the Baltics as a model for its Black Sea presence. This would entail beefing up the forces assigned to NATOs Multi-National Division-Southeast (MND-SE) in Romania, deploying integrated air and missile defenses, and increasing the air policing of the region, as NATO has done in the Baltics. In order to compensate for the Montreux Conventions limitations on the presence of warships from non-Black Sea littoral states, NATO could bolster its airborne maritime domain awareness assets deployed to the region.
None of these steps need to detract from NATOs presence in Poland and the Baltics the Alliance has sufficient assets to resource both its current presence there and the enhanced Black Sea presence argued for here. Indeed, as Hodges and his co-authors argue, balancing the Alliances posture between the Baltic and Black seas would eliminate any gaps or seams for Moscow to exploit.
See the article here:
NATO Needs to Focus on the Black Sea - Defense One
- NATO Protesters Receive 5- To 8-Year Prison Terms - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- NATO - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Latvia: US troops arrive in Baltics for NATO drill - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- No NATO. May 2012. Archive. Chicago, Il - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Erkkio Tuomioja: "Nato suojaa Suomea meteoriiteilta". - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- US troops arrive in Latvia for NATO exercises: Baltic states concerned by Russian military threat - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Voglio andare a vivere a Laveno dove e' nato Pozzetto - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- OcaqTv - Rusiya NATO srhdini pozdu -- F-16-lar havaya qalxd - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Men of War Assault Squad Cold War Mod - NATO vs Warsaw Pact - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- US troops in Poland: American soldiers arrive for NATO exercises in response to Russia threat - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Ancona 23-04-14 PdCI - La crisi dell'Ucraina, la NATO e l'UE: pericoli di guerra e lotta x la Pace - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Eastermonday Peace ralley NATO Bchel germany 21.04.2014 - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- How to change Gear 2 Strap NATO no tool needed - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- In Context: The War Report #3 - Ukraine and NATO - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- On The Wrist Omega Speedmaster Black NATO Strap - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- US, NATO expanding on Russia doorstep: Analyst - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- NATO War Games Send Warning to Moscow - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- NATO to deploy recon flights over Poland - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Nato News - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- NATO - State - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- NATO: Definition from Answers.com - Answers - The Most ... - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Marine Le Pen: Vyvediem Franczsko z NATO - francztina, rutina - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- 5 NATO troops killed in Kandahar Afghanistan UK's helicopter crash - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- European observers detained in Ukraine are branded 'Nato spies' - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Prostittas priecjas par NATO karavriem Latvij - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- MV Bill - A Luz #PersianaBaixaMix (prod. DJ Nato pk) Part. @KmillaCdd - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Furious Russia Proposes Retaliation Against NATO Countries! - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Conversation: NATO's Evolving Mission - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- NATO supply trucks stuck in Pakistan - Video - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- NATO troops killed in Afghanistan helicopter crash - Video - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- Slovakia: NATO exercises in Central Europe - Video - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- "NATO 3" individuals sentenced - Video - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- NATO exercise scenario: Naval response to invasion of allied country - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- NATO News and Video - FOX News Topics - FOXNews.com - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- RAF Typhoons Arrive in Lithuania to Reinforce NATO Air Policing Mission - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- Poland: French Rafale fighter jets join NATO force - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- RAF Deploys Typhoon Jets To Bolster Nato Air Policing Mission - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- Sunday 4/27/2014 - Tarpley Points Out Fake-OSCE Observers Are Actually NATO Military Officers - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- Germany: Pro-Russians rally against NATO in Frankfurt - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- April 28 2014 Breaking News NATO minesweepers set off on Baltic deployment - Video - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- NATO forces serve world bankers: Analyst - Video - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- 2 NATO troops killed in attack in eastern Afghanistan - Video - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- STEFANO BORGONOVO:ATTACCANTE NATO IL DOCUMENTARIO - Video - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- RAF Deploys Typhoon Jets To Bolster NATO Air Policing Mission - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO opens second Baltic air base in Estonia with 4 Danish fighter jets amid Ukraine crisis - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO triples fighter jets in Baltic countries - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Lithuania: US hands over NATO air patrol to UK - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Ukraine: Kerry announces more support from NATO towards coup - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Scoring Political Points? NATO bolsters forces in Eastern Europe - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Putin: NATO Chief Rasmussen secretly taped, leaked meeting when he was Danish PM - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Russia Accuses NATO of 'Provocative' Actions - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO & its future NAZI headquarters - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO Fest 2014 - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- RAF Jets Respond To Ukraine Crisis 28.04.14 - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- OSCE team in Ukraine NATO spies: Analyst - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO commander: Europe concept on international borders changed after Crimea annexation - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO allies take over Baltic mission from Air Force - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO official says Russia must now be viewed as more of an enemy than a partner - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO official says Russia now an adversary - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- North Atlantic Treaty Organization - The New York Times - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Estonian Air Base Turns Into Second NATO Baltic States Hub - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Finale Ligure Freeride H e Base nato con Patrik - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Ellodesse Mv.1, 2, 3 - nato in Synthesia - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO Boosts Presence in Eastern Europe Amid Continued Turmoil in Ukraine - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO's efforts to attain advancement in ariel warfare and defense HD Stock Footage - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Me Gusta By Nato 2014 - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Toward a Europe Whole and Free: Secretary of State John Kerry - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- NATO official: Russian moves in Ukraine pose 'grave challenge' to global security system - May 2nd, 2014 [May 2nd, 2014]
- As NATO Builds It's Forces The Economy Is On The Brink Of Collapse -- Episode 355 - Video - May 2nd, 2014 [May 2nd, 2014]
- 15 years on: NATO's Murino Massacre of innocent children remembered In the NOW. - Video - May 2nd, 2014 [May 2nd, 2014]
- Nato -- finally finding its feet? - Video - May 2nd, 2014 [May 2nd, 2014]
- Europe Responds to Russian Aggression: NATO opens second Baltic hub at Estonia's Amari air base - Video - May 2nd, 2014 [May 2nd, 2014]
- NATO air strength triples in Baltic states - Video - May 2nd, 2014 [May 2nd, 2014]
- Russia now an adversary, NATO official says - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- NATO Movie - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- The Expandables: NATO talking heads, war tech on 'crusade control' - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- Friend to Foe? NATO's Deputy Head classifies Russia as enemy over Ukrainian crisis - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- Tiger's Eye Dance by Oasis Dancers at 2014 NATO - JVC Version - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- Cleopatra's Dance by Oasis Dancers at 2014 NATO - JVC Version - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- Slave To The Rhythm Dance by Oasis Dancer at 2014 NATO - JVC Version - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]