In the New York Times in January 2016, David Axelrod, former campaign strategist for Barack Obama, published The Obama Theory of Trump. Voters rarely seek the replica of what they have, he wrote. They almost always seek the remedy, the candidate who has the personal qualities the public finds lacking in the departing executive.

Ten months later, America elected Obamas polar opposite, Donald Trump: Moriarty to his Holmes, Joker to his Batman, antimatter to matter. According to Paul Begala, a doyen of Democratic politics, the theory bodes well for Joe Biden.

Too many Democrats were trying to be just as pugilistic in their way as Trump is, he says, by phone from a farm in Virginias Shenandoah Valley. Ive known Joe a very long time and I think his most dominant character feature is empathy. Hes bright and hes experienced but hes so empathetic. Weve seen him through tragedy. Hes been very good to me and my family.

If there were a time where we needed empathy, its now. He has experience, which used to be a bad thing, he has competence and empathy and thats exactly the opposite of Trump. So if we want the replica, were not going to vote for Joe. But if we want the remedy and I think we do hes very well positioned to win.

Now 59, Begala was a chief strategist for Bill Clintons 1992 campaign and served in the White House as counselor to the president, then advised a Super Pac that helped elect Barack Obama in 2012. He describes Lyndon Johnson, Clinton and Obama as the three Rushmore-worthy presidents of his lifetime. He is also a familiar face on CNN and has written six books, the latest of which is Youre Fired: The Perfect Guide to Beating Donald Trump.

Chapter one is entitled Mea Culpa, as Begala reflects on the catastrophe of Hillary Clintons utterly unexpected defeat in 2016.

I have some personal responsibility for failing to stop the worst man whos ever been president

Begala explains: I have some personal responsibility here for failing to stop the worst man whos ever been president and I think also the worst president weve ever had. Heres what I got wrong. I was so appalled by Trumps sewer-level character, I couldnt avert my eyes.

I didnt connect my attacks on Trumps character, on the racism, the misogyny, the Islamophobia, mocking the disabled, mocking a PoW, to the lives of the voters. When you dont close that loop, all youre doing is saying, Hes a bad guy. A lot of people said, Gee, hes a terrible guy, but Im going to take a chance on him because he looks like hes a wrecking ball we might need in Washington. So what I should have said is, When you deploy a wrecking ball he very often destroys your house, and this is what Im urging in the book for the Democrats to do.

The chaos, the cruelty, the outrages, the constant throwing of shiny objects for the media to chase: the reality TV presidency is the point.

Begala continues: In addition to saying and doing racist things, there is a method to his madness. He uses those things to distract us from the fact that hes looting the treasury, wants to destroy social security and Medicare and Medicaid, has rained hell on farmers and working people, the very people who elected him.

What, then, would be his number one piece of advice to Biden as heads into an election that, against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, racial justice protests, online disinformation and Trumps countless falsehoods, is likely to be one of the most combustible and unpredictable in history?

It is to make it always about voters, not about Trump, and this is what coronavirus has done for Joe, Begala says. Trumps gift is to convince enough voters that politics is just spectacle, it is just show, it is just a Twitter war with Rosie ODonnell like when he was a TV star but now its a Twitter war with Colin Kaepernick or Nancy Pelosi.

Thats terribly wrong but a lot of people accepted that and agreed with it. But now voting for your president is a life-and-death matter and no matter how hard he tries to reignite these divisive social issues, I think it is not enough to divert people from the fact that their mother, their brother, their child could get sick and, God forbid, die.

His incompetence and his callousness and his corruption: these all now have a cost to me the voter, to you the voter. I think Joes done a very good job of keeping the focus on voters and not every day rising to the bait of every crazy thing that Trump says.

An old political saw holds that Democrats fall in love while Republicans fall in line. Some have blamed Hillary Clintons loss in 2016 on bitter infighting between moderates and progressives who voted for Bernie Sanders. There were fears of a repeat in 2020 but Biden won the primary with room to spare and now the party appears remarkably united behind him.

He is consolidating the base and thats for two reasons, Begala says. Hes doing his job but you know what? The left is doing theirs. I come from the Clinton wing, Im a more moderate guy, but I got to tell you, the left of my party has been terrific in rallying to Joe and people like me need to note that and salute that.

Its been really impressive. My hat is off to the left wing of my party. Theyre not taking their marbles and going home. Theyre mobilising, organising, registering. Its just been great. Now, will this last forever? Of course not. But for right now, nothing unites the people of Earth like a threat from Mars.

He adds: I am publicly urging Biden and the Democrats to spread the map, to run very hard in North Carolina, in Georgia, in Arizona and in my beloved Texas, where I grew up, because how long can the Democrats hold together a coalition which right now consists of four-star generals and Black Lives Matter? Thats not going to hold forever, but thats OK. Hell get static probably from the centre of his party and from the left of his party.

Democrats tend to embrace generational change. Their past four presidents were John F Kennedy (aged 43), Jimmy Carter (52), Clinton (46) and Obama (47), all with photogenic young families. Biden, by contrast, would be 78 on inauguration day, eclipsing Trumps record as the oldest person sworn in as US president. Is there a danger Biden belongs to a less charismatic group of Democratic nominees Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, John Kerry all of whom lost?

Begala insists: I actually think Joes quite charismatic and Ive seen him give terrific speeches but we cant have stadiums full of people anyway. What we want is empathy and thats what he has. At another moment, we want something else. But I think the Democrats did a very wise thing in picking this man at this moment.

Indeed, Bidens empathy is anchored as deep as the ocean. His wife, Neilia, and baby daughter, Naomi, were killed in a car crash in 1972. His adult son, Beau, died from brain cancer in 2015. Jon Stewart, the satirist and film director, observed recently that we are fearful and we are angry and we are in pain. And when I see Biden, past the shtick, I see a guy who knows what loss is. Who knows grief. And I think that that kind of grief humbles him.

Seriously, if we had a fully functioning mental health system, Trump would be in a rubber room, not an Oval Office

His age, however, is bound to be a recurring theme. The Trump campaign is hammering away at Bidens mental and physical fitness.

Does Begala fear that will stick? No, because its compared to what? Joes not the guy telling people to drink bleach. Trump is batty. I dont know if its age-related maybe hes always been batty but Trump is completely unhinged. Hes not just unstable, hes unhinged. Seriously, if we had a fully functioning mental health system, hed be in a rubber room, not an Oval Office.

So the notion thats a valid critique on Biden is fatuous and I dont think its where the Republicans should want to go. If they had a [Mitt] Romney, a [George] Bush, somebody kind of stable and middle of the road for their party, that might be an effective attack. But this is always a comparison. Theres a great old comedian, Henny Youngman, who wouldve been a great political strategist because his famous one-liner was, Hows your wife? Compared to what? Thats all a presidential campaign is. Compared to what?

He adds: I think that the people who took a chance on Trump now are chastened. A whole lot of people voted for Obama and then Trump and I accept that but I think youre going to have an awful lot of people who go back, Trump to Biden.

I cant count the number of people, including friends of mine, who said, Look, I voted for Trump, I took a chance, I thought we could use a little business experience in shaking things up. But oh, my God, hes been a disaster and we must never have him again. Hundreds of people have told me that. I never had one say to me, I voted for Hillary but you know what, Trumps done a really good job and we need to keep him. So I think that tells us something.

Should Biden prevail, Begala fears it will be an uphill task to repair Americans reputation abroad.

Lets say that Biden wins and hes inaugurated, Im going to go see my friends in Europe and Im going to say, Everythings better, everythings better, and theyre going to say, Yeah, you guys could do it again. How do I argue that my country is incapable of electing a Trump? I will. Ill say once youve been through it, you dont want it again. But I think the damage is really devastating. Its incalculable.

Has Begala ever known America so divided? No, I was too young in the 60s. I love being partisan but its negative partisanship. So many of the people who were for Trump are for him because they hate me and thats no way to live a life.

I do think its asymmetrical. The crisis in America is not both sides. It is one side thats gone insane and seems to be consuming itself with hatred. My party has its problems, believe me, but it is not both sides. This negative partisanship from the right: they will do anything to own the libs.

Historians will perhaps invoke Caligula, King George III and assorted authoritarians of the 20th century. But they will surely also dwell on how the Republican party both produced Trump and succumbed to his will, and ponder what it says about human nature.

A drubbing in November, Begala argues, is just what Republicans need.

They are getting a shrinking percentage of a shrinking portion of the country. Most of the guys I grew up with were high-school-educated white men and didnt go to college and so I have a lot of friends that way. Theyre a smaller cohort every day and hes doing less well with them.

They have to reform and the best way to make that happen, paradoxically, is for the Democrats to have a crushing victory. If the Democrats win Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona states that we rarely carry the Republican party will have to reassess and it will actually pull the Republicans to the centre.

Im a great believer in revivification because I saw Reagan do it as a kid and I saw Clinton do it as an adult. I believe they can but they have got to find a way to communicate with this rising American electorate, to women especially unmarried women young people, people of colour. Theyre just haemorrhaging the folks.

A practising Catholic, Begala reflects: Theres two kind of churches. Those that seek out converts and those that hunt down heretics and right now Joe Bidens leading a party thats seeking out converts. Even George Conway and Bill Kristol are on the same side Im on. I love it.

But meanwhile, Trump is leading a hunt for heretics. When Jeff Sessions is not rightwing enough for you, you got a problem!

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Paul Begala on Trump: 'Nothing unites the people of Earth like a threat from Mars' - The Guardian