Virginias eastern region, outlined by the states beaches, has seen an explosive spread of the coronavirus in recent weeks as trends for the rest of the state have seen slight upticks.

But as a slew of states to the south face devastating spikes in cases and new lockdowns, Virginias localized surge has prompted questions about how the state will avoid following suit.

State officials say the answer may lie in a regional approach to examining trends and levying public restrictions that they hope could stem surges early without reversing the states reopening.

That could mean more restrictions in eastern Virginia, where daily cases surged from an average of less than 100 a day to more than 400 a day in the past few weeks.

Virginia as a whole remains in the third and most relaxed phase of its reopening what may become the new normal until there is a vaccine or effective treatment, Gov. Ralph Northam suggested last week. There are no plans for a Phase Four.

Stricter restrictions and enforcement loom, however, if the trend of new cases doesnt hold flat.

I would do it regionally, if we make that decision. When all of this started, we made guidelines statewide, that was to flatten the curve, Northam said Tuesday in a briefing with reporters. Now its about mitigation, and depending on where thats needed, well direct those changes.

The Northam administration had in the spring rejected a regional approach to reopening, eventually relenting in the face of disparate trends in Northern Virginia and elsewhere. Now, with more testing, data and a better understanding of the virus, state and local health officials said breaking the state into five regions may be the right compromise between making blanket statewide rules or applying restrictions by locality.

The eastern region, which includes all of Hampton Roads, the Eastern Shore and more, has become the epicenter of the viruss surge in Virginia in recent weeks. There, health officials say, summer socializing coupled with the flouting of social distancing restrictions has disrupted a declining number of daily new cases.

The region has seen a precipitous increase in new cases that began over the last week of June. On June 26, the area matched its previous record for new cases reported in a day with 157, previously set on April 30. Over the last week, the seven-day average of new cases has continued to rise to more than 400 cases a day.

Part of the increase in new cases could be chalked up to increases in testing statewide, but not all. The region saw its peak on Wednesday at 526 cases, more than half of the 972 reported statewide.

Trends for hospitalizations have also risen in the region in recent days. Trends for deaths at the regional level remain steady in the eastern district and others. (The New York Times, citing its own analysis, reported Friday that additional testing in the U.S. may mean a bigger lag between a diagnosis, and hospitalizations and deaths.)

Todd Wagner, a health director in the eastern region, said the areas beaches and connected attractions have created an environment ripe for new cases, particularly among young people.

In his particular health district, Western Tidewater, which includes Suffolk and Southampton, Wagner said many outbreaks have been traced back to house parties and private social gatherings where one infected individual infected a broader group. Nearby outbreaks in the region could contribute to the frequency of those clusters, he said.

Wagner said his district fields visits by people traveling to and from the Outer Banks in North Carolina, another popular beach destination.

Theres a natural move toward the beach that happens every year in the summertime. When you go to the beach, theres closer proximity among people, than say, if you go to the mountains and hills of western Virginia, Wagner said.

You have whole rows of restaurants and bars. They dont have as much of that in the western part of the state, he added. Any time you have a setting like that, if restrictions arent properly followed, youve got a natural breeding ground for viral transmission.

The central region, which is anchored in the Richmond metro area, has seen an uptick in new cases this month. But the number of cases remains far below the areas peak in late May, when the area saw 279 cases reported in one day. The regions seven-day average of new cases was at 139 on Friday.

In the northern region, which includes Northern Virginia and is the smallest geographic region, new case trends have held steady and far below the regions explosive peak in late May. The areas seven-day average of new cases was 165 on Friday, compared to its peak of 685 cases on May 31.

The northwest region of the state which borders Hanover, reaches up to the border with West Virginia and down through Charlottesville has seen a slight uptick in cases over the past three weeks. Fridays seven-day average of new cases was 105 cases.

In the southwest region, which includes Roanoke down to Wise County, cases have been rising over the last week after an initial rise and fall at the end of June. The seven-day average of new cases was 98 on Friday.

All are trends officials continue to watch, said Stephens and Northam spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky.

Yarmosky did not rule out the possibility of future statewide restrictions, but said that better data will allow state and local officials to use target approaches to respond to surges. The shift is happening as localities debate the reopening of their schools in the fall.

Now that we have increased our capacity, the commonwealth has more options to deploy targeted mitigation strategies, she said, citing the work to contain outbreaks in poultry plants and stricter enforcement of restrictions at beach-area restaurants.

While this situation continues to be fluid and quickly changing, a regional mitigation approach gives us increased flexibility to address specific problems as they arrive.

Nicole Riley, state director of the National Federation of Independent Business, which represents many small businesses in the state, said the organization supports targeted enforcement and restrictions that allow as many businesses as possible to stay open.

We feel that the governor is now open to regionalism in a way, and at the end of the day, if thats the system we need for Virginias economy to be open, we support it, Riley said. But, with the caveat, that state government and localities still follow a transparent process.

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Rise in coronavirus cases in Virginia fueled by spike near its beaches - Richmond.com