Based on a comparison ofProgress Softwares stock (NASDAQ: PRGS) trajectory over recent months with that around the 2008 recession, we believe that the stock can potentially gain 10% once fears surrounding the coronavirus outbreak are abated to reach $40, from current levels of $36. The stock lost more than 30% in 2008 and gained around 83% after that, however, this time around, it dropped 32% between Feb 19th and March 23rd, before improving by 21% since then a partial recovery. A detailed comparison of Progress Softwares performance against the S&P 500 is available in our interactive dashboard analysis, 2007-08 vs. 2020 Crisis Comparison:How Did Progress Software Stock Fare Compared With S&P 500?
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency at the end of January in light of the coronavirus spread. The rally in the equity market continued till February 19 with the S&P 500 reaching a record high, but the trend reversed sharply over the following weeks. PRGS stock lost 32% of its value (vs. about 34% decline in the S&P 500) between February 19 and March 23. A bulk of the decline came after March 6th, when an increasing number of Coronavirus cases outside China fueled concerns of a global economic slowdown. Notably, though, the multi-billion dollar stimulus package announced by the U.S. government has helped the stock price recover 21% over recent weeks (vs. about a 48% gain in the S&P 500) to its current level of $36.
Progress Softwares Stock Fell Because The Situation On The Ground Has Changed
Progress Software is a U.S based Software Company that provides solutions for developing and deploying business applications. It offers tools for easily building adaptive user experiences across any type of device, the flexibility of a serverless cloud platform to deliver modern apps, data connectors, etc. The Covid-19 crisis has compelled businesses to re-think their IT spending to save costs. Companies are either postponing or slashing IT expenditure in the short term, investing in only business-critical projects. This is likely to impact Progress top line as both new deals and subscription revenues could suffer. On the flip side, Progress Software has a strong balance sheet and a large network of over 1,700 independent software vendors, 100,000 enterprise customers, and two million developers who use its offerings, enabling it to grow in the long term.
We believe Progress Softwares Q3 results will confirm this reality with a drop in both product licenses and subscription revenues. If signs of coronavirus containment arent clear by the September Q3 earnings timeframe, its likely Progress Softwares stock along with the broader market is going to see another round of sell-offs when results are well below expectations.
But Progress Software Stock Witnessed Something Similar During The 2008 Downturn
We see PRGS stock declined from levels of around $13 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to roughly $7 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out) implying that the stock lost as much as 50% of its value from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a similar drop as the broader S&P, which fell by about 51%.
However, PRGS recovered strongly post the 2008 crisis to about $12 in early 2010 rising by 83% between March 2009 and January 2010. In comparison, the S&P bounced back by about 48% over the same period.
Will Progress Softwares Stock Recover Similarly From The Current Crisis?
Keeping in mind the fact that PRGS stock fell 32% from the market peak on February 19 to the low on March 23 compared to the 50% decline during the 2008 recession, we believe it can potentially bounce back (10%) to around $40 once economic conditions begin to show signs of improving. This marks a partial recovery to the $44 level PRGS stock was at before the coronavirus outbreak gained global momentum.
That said, the actual recovery and its timing hinge on the broader containment of the coronavirus spread. Our dashboardforecasting U.S. Covid-19 cases with cross-country comparisonsanalyzesexpected recovery time-frames and possible spread of the virus.
Further, our dashboard-28% Coronavirus crash vs. 4 Historic crashes builds a complete macro picture and complements our analyses of the coronavirus outbreaks impact on a diverse set of Progress Softwares multinational peers. The complete set ofcoronavirus impact and timing analysesis available here.
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What's Happening With Progress Software Stock? - Trefis
- Progress Lighting - Home - December 22nd, 2016 [December 22nd, 2016]
- Home - Progress Lighting Outlet - Authorized Progress Dealer - January 13th, 2017 [January 13th, 2017]
- What does progress mean? - Definitions.net - January 13th, 2017 [January 13th, 2017]
- Progress Fire Company Harrisburg, PA - January 13th, 2017 [January 13th, 2017]
- Homepage Center for American Progress - January 13th, 2017 [January 13th, 2017]
- Progress being made on possible grocery store co-op in Winston-Salem - myfox8.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Nioh Review-in-Progress: FromSoftware's Formula Evolved - Shacknews - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Deutsche Bundesbank Cites Progress With Blockchain-Based Settlement - CryptoCoinsNews - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- IMF: Greece's debts are still unsustainable despite progress - The Seattle Times - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Think Progress Editor Mocks Audi for Equal Pay Super Bowl Ad - Breitbart News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Progress apparent on defense - Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- IMF: Greece's Debts are Still Unsustainable, Despite Progress - Voice of America - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Can US disrupter-in-chief trigger some progress? - Jerusalem Post Israel News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- The Cost of Progress - Slate Magazine - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Cavaliers' pitching rotation a work in progress | Cavalier Insider ... - The Daily Progress - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- High schoolers create 'zines for progress' with WolfsonianFIU - FIU News - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Cries of 'dictator' show Pope Francis is making progress - Crux: Covering all things Catholic - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Officials: City is making progress in effort to address opioid crisis - The Union Leader - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- IN OUR VIEW: Work Ready in Progress for Carter - The Independent - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- BP's Earnings Keep Showing Progress, Even if the Headline Results Don't Say So - Motley Fool - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Women's Progress in the Boardroom Took a Hit in 2016 - Inc.com - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Blight Elimination Progress, Uplifting - MyWabashValley - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Rauner 'heartened' by progress in Springfield - Bloomington Pantagraph - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- David Johnson showed off the insane progress he's making in rehab from his knee injury - USA TODAY - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Through the looking glass: Tower view showcases progress on Amazon's unique biospheres - GeekWire - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Britney Spears Says Niece Maddie Is 'Making Progress' After ATV Accident: 'Let's All Keep Praying' - PEOPLE.com - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Progress on vet's Mustang to be unveiled - Indianapolis Star - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Evgeni Malkin making 'progress,' could return Saturday in Arizona - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Forecasters See Slow Progress in Labor-Market Measures Favored by Trump Administration - Wall Street Journal - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- 'Paper boys' were the lifeblood of The Daily Progress - The Daily Progress - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Cliffs Natural Resources Is Showing a Lot of Progress on Its Return to Profitability - Motley Fool - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- ATA says states' telemedicine progress a mixed bag ... - FierceHealthcare - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Seltzer's Notebook | Colangelo Encouraged by Sixers' Progress - Sixers.com - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- The Trump administration can't entirely roll back progress on climate change here's why - Washington Post - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Colts position review: OL showed legit progress, but work remains - Indianapolis Star - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Egyptian Economy Making Slow, Tentative Progress - Voice of America - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- ATA: States show mixed progress with telemedicine | Healthcare Dive - Healthcare Dive - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Louisville City notes: McCabe making progress - The Courier-Journal - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Jeremy Lin: Progress but no timetable - NetsDaily - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Marginal progress for Turkish-backed forces in north Syria - LA Daily News - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Jimmy Cheek: UT chancellor appreciative of hard work, progress on journey - Knoxville News Sentinel - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Syria Regional Crisis 2016 Emergency Appeal - Progress Report - Reliefweb - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- CWLP officials: Bailout repayment would set back progress - The State Journal-Register - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Pistons' Johnson making halting but definite progress - The Detroit News - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Clairton works: Real progress is coming to the former steel town - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- The Democrats' Strategy: Hindering Progress For Partisan Politics - Daily Caller - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- The surprising progress stoppers on the Dallas Cowboys defensive line - Cowboys Wire - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Gender Progress in Ballet - Huffington Post - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Foyt pleased with progress, regrets lack of time - Motorsport.com, Edition: Global - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Progress Made, but Threat Lingers at California's Oroville Dam - Wall Street Journal - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Adele, Beyonc, and the Grammys' Fear of Progress - The Atlantic - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- North Korea Claims Progress on Long-Range Goal With Missile Test - New York Times - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- How Travel Bans Can Impede America's Progress - Forbes - Forbes - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Jeff Sessions' appointment threatens decades of civil rights progress - The Hill (blog) - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Ionis Earns $75M Milestone from Bayer for Progress of Antisense Drug Program - Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News (press release) - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Guilford Schools annual report shows mixed results on progress - Greensboro News & Record (blog) - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Sniper Elite 4 review in progress - PC Gamer - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- For Honor Review In Progress - GameSpot - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- China's military progress challenges Western dominance, says IISS - Deutsche Welle - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- PFW in Progress Recap 2/14: Patriots Offseason Outlook | New ... - Patriots.com - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Daily Progress, chamber establish regional business Hall of Fame - The Daily Progress - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Huntsville-based Progress Bank to acquire Birmingham's First Partners Bank - Birmingham Business Journal - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- City, UF sign partnership for progress - Gainesville Sun - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- California officials lift evacuation order for 200000 threatened by damaged dam - CBS News - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- 5G progress at Ericsson could help enterprises work worldwide - Computerworld - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Officials making 'great progress' on California dam repairs, remind residents to stay vigilant - Fox News - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Halo Wars 2 Review in Progress - IGN - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- CUGNON: Forward progress - Yale Daily News (blog) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- F-35 Program Makes Significant, Solid Progress, Official Says - Department of Defense - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Lenovo's data center ambitions remain work in progress following Q3 results - ZDNet - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- PFW in Progress Recap 2/16: Free Agency and Potential Patriots - Patriots.com - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- S&P 500: 'Blow-off' Phase in Progress - DailyFX - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Combine invites are another sign of progress at Michigan - Big Ten ... - ESPN (blog) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Halo Wars 2 review in progress - PC Gamer - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- 'Hero' film produced just for Charlottesville featured the mayor, The Daily Progress - The Daily Progress - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Republicans' health care overhaul still a work in progress - Press Herald - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Trump Boasts Of 'Incredible Progress' In 4 Weeks Of Presidency - NPR - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Donald Trump touts promise progress at press conference - PolitiFact - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Mild winter helping crews make significant progress on East End Connector - WRAL.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Committee updates Legislature on precinct consolidation progress - Chicago Tribune - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]