U.S. policies that restrained and shrank atomic arsenals have been abandoned. Yet there are hopeful trends as well.
Never take progress for granted. That is the big lesson from the past ten years of dealing with nuclear threats. The decade began with great hope for a transformational U.S. nuclear policy and increased global cooperation. It ended with nuclear risks resurgent across theboard.
At the beginning of 2010, one of us was writing another book on nuclear policy, the other was finishing senior year in college. But we end this nuclear decade in the same place: deeply worried about multiple nuclear dangers and the failure of U.S. nuclearpolicy.
There is some good news. We end the decade better off than we began by several measures. In 2010, there were 22,400 nuclear weapons on the planet. Today, there are fewer than 14,000, a 40-percent reduction. For the first time in the Atomic Age, a decade passed without a new nation joining the nuclear club. (North Korea became the ninth nuclear-armed state in 2006.) Moreover, there was no nuclear terrorist attack, not even a dirty bombthough that was the top threat cited in the U.S. National Security Strategy of2010.
These gains were fostered by the policies that guided U.S. strategy for most of the decade. We simultaneously reduced nuclear arsenals, prevented new nuclear states from emerging, and secured nuclear materials as we fought the terrorist networks that sought them. This effective combination of reduce, prevent, secure created the conditions for states to shrink existing stockpiles, convinced others not to take the nuclear road, and allowed all to cooperate to block terrorists and outlier states from getting their hands on materials for the cores ofbombs.
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The bad news is that the decades progress has stalled. The policies that made it possible have been discarded over the last three years. President Donald Trump inherited substantial nuclear threats. But his administration has made themworse.
Globally, we have an escalating nuclear arms race. Each of the nine nuclear weapons states are building new weapons. Relatedly, we have a near-collapse of arms control structures. Built over years by Republicans and Democrats, they restrained this race and prevented the worst fromhappening.
Regional threats have intensified, also. The deal that reversed, froze, and secured the Iranian nuclear program is being destroyednot by Iran, but by the United States. With North Korea, despite promising diplomatic openings, the Trump administration has yet to develop a workable diplomatic process to structure real, serious and sustainable negotiations, as a group of senators led by Chuck Schumer recently wrote. The arms race in South Asia now combines with increased instability, andin the case of Indiaa dangerous Hindu nationalism that threatens a regional nuclear war with global, catastrophicconsequences.
Finally, as one of us recently noted, Donald Trump presents a unique nuclear danger: an unstable individual with the ability to launch a nuclear war whenever he wants, for whatever reason hewants.
It would be easy to blame the current administration for all of these problems. But that would overlook the failures of the previous administration. Obama officials thought they had more time than they did. They believed that half steps would lead to full solutions. They thought that they needed to protect their right flank by continuing status quo policies and appointing supporters of the existing nuclear arsenal to key policypositions.
President Barack Obama had the best of intentions but, as the character played by Louis Gossett Jr. says about Dr. Manhattan at the conclusion of HBOs brilliant Watchmen series, He was a good man, but considering what he could do, he couldve donemore.
There is still reason for hope. Nuclear weapons may seem like an unchangeable reality in the world, but the world itself is changing aroundthem.
For one thing, the nuclear have-nots are demanding a say in their destiny. Fifty years ago, these nations pledged to never acquire nuclear weapons in a bargain enshrined in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In return, the nuclear haves pledged to end the nuclear arms race and move towards complete disarmament. For five decades, the former deferred to the whims of thelatter.
No longer. With the help of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons and other groups, the have-nots organized a series of conferences on the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons in 2013 and 2014, then passed a legally binding treaty through the United Nations that comprehensively prohibits nuclear weapons. The treaty will likely come into force by 2021, creating a new global norm that puts pressure on even those states who remain outside thepact.
Governments are not alone in shaking up the traditional hierarchies. Compared to 10 years ago, the nuclear policy community looks starkly different. The field is younger, more female, more racially diverse, though not nearly enough. This trend is typified by the likes of ICAN abroad and Beyond the Bombdomestically.
In all these cases, people are insisting that nuclear decisions, which affect us all, be made by usall.
These trends are positive, but can they overcome the destruction of the arms control regime, the expansion of nuclear stockpiles, and the growing regionalthreats?
The last ten years show that when policy falters, disasters loom. The history of the next nuclear decade begins now. It will be a race, as former Sen. Sam Nunn says, between cooperation and catastrophe. We hope to see you at the finishline.
The rest is here:
Progress, Peril, Hope: The Nuclear Decade in Review - Defense One
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- Nioh Review-in-Progress: FromSoftware's Formula Evolved - Shacknews - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Deutsche Bundesbank Cites Progress With Blockchain-Based Settlement - CryptoCoinsNews - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- IMF: Greece's debts are still unsustainable despite progress - The Seattle Times - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Think Progress Editor Mocks Audi for Equal Pay Super Bowl Ad - Breitbart News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Progress apparent on defense - Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- IMF: Greece's Debts are Still Unsustainable, Despite Progress - Voice of America - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Can US disrupter-in-chief trigger some progress? - Jerusalem Post Israel News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- The Cost of Progress - Slate Magazine - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Cavaliers' pitching rotation a work in progress | Cavalier Insider ... - The Daily Progress - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- High schoolers create 'zines for progress' with WolfsonianFIU - FIU News - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Cries of 'dictator' show Pope Francis is making progress - Crux: Covering all things Catholic - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Officials: City is making progress in effort to address opioid crisis - The Union Leader - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- IN OUR VIEW: Work Ready in Progress for Carter - The Independent - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- BP's Earnings Keep Showing Progress, Even if the Headline Results Don't Say So - Motley Fool - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Women's Progress in the Boardroom Took a Hit in 2016 - Inc.com - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Blight Elimination Progress, Uplifting - MyWabashValley - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Rauner 'heartened' by progress in Springfield - Bloomington Pantagraph - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- David Johnson showed off the insane progress he's making in rehab from his knee injury - USA TODAY - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Through the looking glass: Tower view showcases progress on Amazon's unique biospheres - GeekWire - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Britney Spears Says Niece Maddie Is 'Making Progress' After ATV Accident: 'Let's All Keep Praying' - PEOPLE.com - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Progress on vet's Mustang to be unveiled - Indianapolis Star - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Evgeni Malkin making 'progress,' could return Saturday in Arizona - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Forecasters See Slow Progress in Labor-Market Measures Favored by Trump Administration - Wall Street Journal - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- 'Paper boys' were the lifeblood of The Daily Progress - The Daily Progress - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Cliffs Natural Resources Is Showing a Lot of Progress on Its Return to Profitability - Motley Fool - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- ATA says states' telemedicine progress a mixed bag ... - FierceHealthcare - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Seltzer's Notebook | Colangelo Encouraged by Sixers' Progress - Sixers.com - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- The Trump administration can't entirely roll back progress on climate change here's why - Washington Post - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Colts position review: OL showed legit progress, but work remains - Indianapolis Star - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Egyptian Economy Making Slow, Tentative Progress - Voice of America - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- ATA: States show mixed progress with telemedicine | Healthcare Dive - Healthcare Dive - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Louisville City notes: McCabe making progress - The Courier-Journal - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Jeremy Lin: Progress but no timetable - NetsDaily - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Marginal progress for Turkish-backed forces in north Syria - LA Daily News - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Jimmy Cheek: UT chancellor appreciative of hard work, progress on journey - Knoxville News Sentinel - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Syria Regional Crisis 2016 Emergency Appeal - Progress Report - Reliefweb - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- CWLP officials: Bailout repayment would set back progress - The State Journal-Register - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Pistons' Johnson making halting but definite progress - The Detroit News - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Clairton works: Real progress is coming to the former steel town - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- The Democrats' Strategy: Hindering Progress For Partisan Politics - Daily Caller - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- The surprising progress stoppers on the Dallas Cowboys defensive line - Cowboys Wire - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Gender Progress in Ballet - Huffington Post - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Foyt pleased with progress, regrets lack of time - Motorsport.com, Edition: Global - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Progress Made, but Threat Lingers at California's Oroville Dam - Wall Street Journal - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Adele, Beyonc, and the Grammys' Fear of Progress - The Atlantic - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- North Korea Claims Progress on Long-Range Goal With Missile Test - New York Times - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- How Travel Bans Can Impede America's Progress - Forbes - Forbes - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Jeff Sessions' appointment threatens decades of civil rights progress - The Hill (blog) - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Ionis Earns $75M Milestone from Bayer for Progress of Antisense Drug Program - Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News (press release) - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Guilford Schools annual report shows mixed results on progress - Greensboro News & Record (blog) - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Sniper Elite 4 review in progress - PC Gamer - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- For Honor Review In Progress - GameSpot - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- China's military progress challenges Western dominance, says IISS - Deutsche Welle - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
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- City, UF sign partnership for progress - Gainesville Sun - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- California officials lift evacuation order for 200000 threatened by damaged dam - CBS News - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- 5G progress at Ericsson could help enterprises work worldwide - Computerworld - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Officials making 'great progress' on California dam repairs, remind residents to stay vigilant - Fox News - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Halo Wars 2 Review in Progress - IGN - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- CUGNON: Forward progress - Yale Daily News (blog) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- F-35 Program Makes Significant, Solid Progress, Official Says - Department of Defense - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
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- Combine invites are another sign of progress at Michigan - Big Ten ... - ESPN (blog) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
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- Donald Trump touts promise progress at press conference - PolitiFact - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Mild winter helping crews make significant progress on East End Connector - WRAL.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Committee updates Legislature on precinct consolidation progress - Chicago Tribune - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]