Parts of Pennsylvania are preparing to lift some restrictions of the statewide shutdown. The Lehigh Valleys progress toward that goal is mixed.

A lehighvalleylive.com analysis of available data shows that the rate of new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people over the last two weeks one essential metric Gov Tom Wolfs administration is using to determine which areas are eligible to begin reopening has improved in Lehigh County, but grown worse in Northampton County over the last week.

The situation in nearby counties is similarly jumbled: The rate of new COVID-19 cases is worse in Bucks and Montgomery, but improved in Berks, Monroe and even Philadelphia.

(Cant see the map? Click here.)

The goal set forth last week by Gov. Tom Wolf and Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine is to see counties head below a rate of 50 new cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people over two weeks.

A list of what counties will on May 8 move from red to yellow the second tier of Wolfs three-tier reopening plan is to be released sometime Friday, though Wolf told media on Thursday that the list was yet to be drafted.

(UPDATE: 24 Pa. counties will move to the yellow phase)

We will be looking at all of the things, Wolf said. We want to keep people safe.

This chart shows Gov. Tom Wolf's plan for reopening Pennsylvania, with different regions moving through three phases.

Data available as of Thursday afternoon shows 41 of Pennsylvanias 67 counties appearing to meet that threshold, scattered throughout the central and western regions.

In more densely populated eastern Pennsylvania, however, the situation is different.

A week ago, Northampton County had about 216 new cases per 100,000 people over the prior 14 days; Lehigh County had 231. This week, Northamptons two-week rate rose to about 234 new cases per 100,000 residents while Lehighs dropped to about 191.

Philadelphia, which has the most cases and deaths of anywhere in the state, improved, going from 288 new cases per 100,000 residents over two weeks to 262.

Near the Lehigh Valley, the two-week rate of new cases in Bucks County rose from 187 to 214. And in Montgomery County, it increased from 181 to 195.

But in Berks County, the two-week rate of new cases dropped from 354 per capita to 276. In Monroe County, which, when accounting for population, has also been hard hit by the virus, the two-week new case rate fell from 160 to 116 per 100,000 people.

(Cant see the chart? Click here.)

The measurement is also being applied regionally. The Lehigh Valleys counties are considered to be the southernmost in the Northeast region, which extends through the Poconos to the New York state border. Last week, the region had 186 new cases per 100,000 residents over two weeks. This week, the rate is 162.

The adjacent Southeast region, which includes Berks County and Philadelphia, last week was at 221 new cases per 100,000 people over two weeks. This week, it dropped slightly to 215.

The new cases metric is, as Levine described it Thursday, necessary, but not sufficient" on its own to determine when it is reasonably safe to progress from the red level to yellow. State officials are also considering testing availability, hospital capacity, disease forecast models, and an areas proximity to a hotspot in their decisions.

But, Levine said, if a county is significantly above that target level of 50 new cases per 100,000 over two weeks, its much less likely to go to yellow."

If theres a resurgence of coronavirus in a region, the state reserves the ability to close it down again.

Even as areas do progress through the tiers, masks will still be required, restaurants will still be closed to dine-in service and large gatherings will still be prohibited. Wolf, in a conference call with media on Thursday, said Pennsylvanians will have to adjust to a new normal, one with an infectious disease circulating in a way not seen in the last 60 to 70 years.

Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf and Health Secretary Rachel Levine, pictured at a news conference in March, say that the rate of new coronavirus cases over two weeks, hospital capacity, disease forecast models, and a region's proximity to a COVID-19 hotspot will all play into the decision to begin lifting shutdown restrictions by region. If the virus shows a resurgence, they can shut the area back down again. (Joe Hermitt | jhermitt@pennlive.com)

Moving from the more-stringent red lockdown to the gradual societal reopening laid out in the yellow phase is all about learning how we interact in this new world. Absent a rapid-fire vaccine or cure, social distancing and mask-wearing are a part of daily life for the near future. Businesses and workplaces will need to find new ways of operating.

We have to behave differently or were all going to get sick, Wolf said.

The stay-at-home order aimed to buy Pennsylvania time to ramp up testing capacity and avoid overwhelming the health care system, an attempt to to buy time in the crudest of ways, Wolf said.

U.S. governors are trying to navigate the uncharted waters of the pandemic in a way that keeps people safe, but also does the least damage, Wolf said. In many ways, he said, those are just irreconcilable goals. Individuals are going to have to decide what this means for themselves in many ways. Will their choices be driven by the hope of protecting a loved one from getting sick?

A lot of this is going to be invented as we go, Wolf said. Weve learned about how to contain the disease. Now we have to learn how to live with it.

It will not be a quick return to normal regardless, but it will be even longer for areas going backward and others nearby.

Tell us your coronavirus stories, whether its a news tip, a topic you want us to cover, or a personal story you want to share.

Our journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today to lehighvalleylive.com.

Steve Novak may be reached at snovak@lehighvalleylive.com. Sara K. Satullo may be reached at ssatullo@lehighvalleylive.com.

See original here:

As parts of Pa. prepare to end coronavirus shutdown, Lehigh Valleys progress is mixed | Analysis - lehighvalleylive.com