Obamacare Effect Linked to Lower Medical Cost Estimates

Estimates of U.S. health-care spending for the next five years have been lowered by two federal agencies, and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is getting much of the credit.

U.S. health spending in 2019 will be $4 trillion, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said this week, or $500 billion less than the agency projected in 2010 when President Barack Obamas health-care overhaul became law. That announcement followed by a week a report from the Congressional Budget Office lowering its five-year cost estimates.

Obamacare has been criticized by Republicans as costly and unsustainable. Now, four years after its arrival, the laws mandated program cuts and the medical practices it encourages -- limiting unneeded procedures, and keeping people out of the hospital longer -- are cited by economists as key ingredients in trimming the nations medical bill. While the recession has had an influence on the cost slowdown, it doesnt explain it all, according to policy analysts and the CBO.

When the CBO goes back and revises their baseline, historically theyve adjusted upwards, said Tricia Neuman, director of the Kaiser Family Foundations Program on Medicare Policy. So the fact that theres been year-after-year downward adjustments is fairly remarkable since they occurred after the ACA was signed into law.

Norma Licciardello sits with an agent from Sunshine Life and Health Advisors at a store setup in Miami, Florida, on March 31, 2014. Close

Norma Licciardello sits with an agent from Sunshine Life and Health Advisors at a store... Read More

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Norma Licciardello sits with an agent from Sunshine Life and Health Advisors at a store setup in Miami, Florida, on March 31, 2014.

While total health spending will still rise over the long run, the slower-than-expected growth predicted within the next five years has sharply improved the nations fiscal outlook, Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, wrote on the White House blog.

National health-care expenditures will be 18 percent of the gross domestic product in 2019, according to the CMS report. Thats 1.5 percentage points lower than the agencys projection in 2010 for the same year.

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Obamacare Effect Linked to Lower Medical Cost Estimates

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