With health reform now a certainty, some local health care leaders are bracing for a surge in waiting-room complaints as thousands of newly insured patients start showing up for medical care.

The Affordable Care Act mandates increased health coverage for the uninsured. In California, that means expanding the states Medi-Cal program and offering subsidized insurance plans on a newly created state-run exchange.

On the first day of 2014, more than 300,000 uninsured San Diego County residents are expected to qualify for coverage. Many health care experts say there simply will not be enough doctors to go around.

Dr. Ted Mazer, communications director of the San Diego County Medical Society, said there is already a local primary care shortage.

We know that, for the Medi-Cal population, and for the newly insured, those folks are being dealt a false promise, Mazer said. Theyre saying, Here is your insurance, go find a doctor, but we know that even as things are today, current beneficiaries cant find a doctor.

Mazer added that cuts to physician reimbursement are likely to cut the already-anemic number of primary care doctors and specialists willing to accept Medi-Cal insurance, just at the wave of newly insured patients hits. He predicted that many of those who cannot find a doctor will end up going to the emergency room for care, just as many are already doing today.

Youre going to complicate the care for the patients who currently have some access because youre going to flood the market with more people with a Medi-Cal card and youre not doing anything to improve the infrastructure, Mazer said.

The doctor shortage has been documented by many publications, most recently the Annals of Family Medicine which published a study Nov. 20 that found an additional 52,000 more primary care doctors will be needed nationwide by 2025 to cope with the surge in demand.

But not everyone sees difficulty on the horizon. Gary Rotto, director of health policy for the Council of Community Clinics, which represents 16 neighborhood health centers in the region, said he believes that the wave of new patients will arrive gradually, making it more ridable.

There will be an initial crunch, but we believe that we can work people into the system and provide the care that they need at our clinics, Rotto said.

See original here:

Health reform could bring a crowd, some leaders say