Conventional wisdom holds that Libertarian Party candidates draw votes away from Republican candidates. However, some exit polling from Tuesdays midterms shows that wisdom may not be true.
Reasons Brian Doherty looked at the exit polling in North Carolina and Virginia and found that its not necessarily true.
It isnt common for Democrats to accuse Libertarians of spoiling elections for them, but a look at NBC News exit polls show that Haugh voters indeed came more from people who consider themselves moderate (5 percent of self-identified moderates went Haugh) and even liberal (4 percent of liberals voted for Haugh) than from conservatives (only 2 percent of whom voted for Haugh). Those were the only three choices for self-identification.
Only 1 percent each of self-identified Democrats or Republicans voted Haugh, while 9 percent of Independents did. (Those again were the only choices.) (Independents otherwise went 49-42 for Tillis over Hagan.)
In other exit poll results, Haughs portion of the vote fell pretty steadily as age groups got olderhe got 9 percent of the 18-24 vote, and only 2 percent of the 50-and-over crowd.
Haugh did strongest among white women in race/gender breakdowns, with 5 percent of that crowd, and only 1 percent of black men or black womanand no polled number of Latino men or women.
Other interesting Haugh exit poll results: His overall man/woman breakdown was the same, 4 percent of each in the exit poll. Haughs numbers got progressively smaller as voter income got biggerhe earned 6 percent of the under-$30K vote but only 1 percent of the over-$200K vote. Libertarians arent just for plutocrats.
As Doherty points out in an earlier piece, Sean Haugh, the Libertarian candidate in North Carolina, ran as a left-libertarian who was generally opposed to cutting social services. As for Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian candidate in Virginia, Doherty believes that Sarvis may have cost Ed Gillespie the Senate race. However, Sarvis e-mailed Doherty and says otherwise:
One cant assume the 3 percent Rs would be voting [Gillespie] in my absenceits quite likely these R voters would have joined the 7 percent of Rs voting for Warner. Polls throughout the race showed Warner enjoying double-digit support among Rs, and a fair number of Rs told us they cant stomach voting for [Gillespie]. A lot of business-type Republicans consider Warner acceptable, so probably many Rs who really disliked [Gillespie] voted for me because I was preferable to Warner, but would otherwise have voted Warner not Gillespie. So those R Sarvis voters were taken from Warner not Gillespie.
Continued here:
The Liberty Papers Blog Archive Which Party Are ...
- KISS Army horing the US Army - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Post-Election: Liberal Columnist Peter Beinart says GOP now has a "libertarian thrust" - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels goes Libertarian: Orders 10% Cut for State Agencies - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Libertarian Group calls for Apology from Obama for his insulting and inappopriate Remarks after Ft. Hood - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Now the responsibility of American Muslims is to expose the Radical Jihadists among us - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Lt. Col. Ralph Peters on Hasan, calling it like it is - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Rush County Residents Start Effort to Organize County - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Libertarian Party of Marion County Announces Second Annual Canned Food Drive - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Cato: Federal Education Results Prove the Framers Right - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Bell: If a picture is worth a thousand words, what's a word worth?... - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Maguire: How I will Vote on Wishard This Tuesday - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Contrary to Popular Belief... There IS an Election TODAY - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- That Would be Perfect: Stop the RTA - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Press Release: Libertarian Party Reaction to Voters Defeating the RTD - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- An Easy Way To Email Your Senators on Obamacare and Responsible Energy Policy - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Bell Curve: Oh yeah, that's a lot better... Property Tax "solution" Destroying Indiana Small Business - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Libertarian City Councilman Mark Byrne, Port Huron, MI wins endorsement of Local Paper for Reelection - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- WASHINGTON STATE: Race for King County Executive one to watch - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Closeted Republican could be elected Atlanta's next Mayor - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Obama will own a Corzine loss - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Jason Shih, Photo of Corzine Staffer busted for Drugs - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Sarah Palin blasts Biden over Energy Hypocrisy - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Murder in Arizona: Father runs over Daughter in so-called "Honor Killing," she had become "too Westernized" - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Races to Watch for Libertarian Republicans 2009 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- HUGE NEWS OUT OF TEXAS!! Scores of Democrat County Officials Switch to Republican - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Chris Christie Wins!!! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Dedicated to Governor-Elect Chris Christie and the Citizens of the Great State of New Jersey - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Republicans win 6 new Seats in Virginia House of Delegates - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Post-Election Party Switchers from Democrat to Republican: 8 so far in Texas - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Libertarian Party Election Results: 5 Victories, 1 Heartbreaking Loss, 1 Big 2nd place finish - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Rand Paul questioned on his Libertarian ties, Father's controversial Foreign Policy views - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Libertarian "RINO" wins County Council seat in Erie, Pennsylvania - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Republicans sweep Westchester County, New York on Anti-Tax message - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- GOP Congressional candidate Alan West says Fort Hood tragedy "proof" Jihadists infiltrating our Military - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- TEXAS STATE REPRESENTATIVE SWITCHES TO REPUBLICAN!!! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Minnesota DFL may have a Big Problem on its hands for 2010: Lynne Torgerson - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- New Poll: 39% of Israelis believe Obama is a Muslim - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- Since Obama elected "Worst Year" for Homegrown Islamic Terrorism - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- A Pro-Islamist President? Obama's ties to the Muslim World exposed - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- Libertarian Party of Marion County Holds Holiday Party to Benefit Second Helpings - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Tippecanoe County Libertarian Party Plans to Walk in Christmas Parade - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- NRA: Bloomington, Indiana Herald-Times Treats Law-Abiding Gun Owners like Registered Sex Offenders! - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Kole Hard Facts of Life: Great Post On Copenhagen Global Warming Issues - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- SchansBlog: ClimateGate extravaganza - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Scherschel: A Letter to the Editor of the Bloomington Herald Times - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Press Release: Libertarian Party of Johnson County Wants Voters To Decide on Jail Expansion - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- LPIN HQ Seeks Interns in 2010 - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Cato: More Federal Health Care Fraud - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Indiana Election Division Releases Important 2010 Election Guides - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad preparing Holy War against the United States - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Pro-Liberty Students in Iran Protest Against the Government - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- It's Official! Tea Party Movement founded by Libertarian Republicans and that settles it! - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Good news for Republicans against Dodd; All three GOPers come out ahead - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Massachusetts GOP: We have a candidate - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Libertarian Republican bloggers discuss Climategate, Health Care and Hot Political Races - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Panel votes against Impeachment for Libertarian Republican Gov. Mark Sanford - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Reid Senate Plan includes Individual Mandates: $750 Fine for Non-Compliance - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- OHIO: More gains in latest poll for Fiscal Conservative John Kasich - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Yet another bigtime incumbent Dem calls it quits; Rep. Brian Baird (WA) faced increasingly tough Reelection - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- RCP running average for Obama Approvals drops to 48.9% - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Sarah Palin, Ron Paul ticket 2012? Sarah on Top - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Libertarians attacked by Leftists at Welcoming Event in Copenhagen - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Baucus mistress Melodee Hanes sleeping her way to the Top - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Not the First Time Baucus has had a Sex Scandal: Harrassment Allegations back in 1999 - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Baucus "Bimbo Eruption" gains Criticism back Home; Calls for his Resignation - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Senator DeMint officially endorses Michael Williams for US Senate - Texas - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- WISCONSIN: Terri McCormick for Congress - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Nancy Pelosi as Stalin: One California Korean-American says it fits - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Abolish Medicare says Glenn Beck - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Glenn Beck on Barbara Walters: Describe my politics? "Libertarian, Maximum Freedom" - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Obama is a Muslim entering Pop Culture - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Fed Bureaucrats get big raise in Compensation: Private Sector workers grow Poorer - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Obama Administration launches Massive Assault on Financial Privacy - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Tucker Carlson to launch new Journalist Website: Promises not to "suck up" to Obama - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Michele Bachman: Time to KILL SOCIALISM! - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- IDAHO: Democrat switches to Republican to run against libertarian-leaning Dem Rep. Walt Minnick - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Did the Missoulian cover up for the Max Baucus Affair? - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- And now some good old-fashioned Hardcore Right-wing Punk Rock from Wyoming - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Obama's approval ratings take another dip at RCP - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Adam Andrzejewski for Illinois Governor: Deserving of Conservative and Libertarian support - December 15th, 2009 [December 15th, 2009]