By Rob Jordan

Sign warning of contamination at Channel Islands Harbor, Ventura, Calif. New models could help public health officials better predict when water contaminants will harm beach goers.

A new Stanford study shows how to improve the public health at beaches where coastal contamination can be a problem.

The analysis by researchers from Stanford; the University of California, Los Angeles; and the nonprofit environmental group Heal the Bay shows that relatively easy-to-use predictive modeling systems offer an improvement over current monitoring methods.

If implemented, these predictions could give beachgoers a better chance to avoid waterborne ailments such as gastroenteritis, respiratory illness, skin rashes and ear, nose and throat infections.

Getting gastroenteritis the "stomach flu," which often comes with diarrhea, vomiting and fever is one of several ailments that can affect people infected by water polluted with fecal bacteria from sewage.

Alexandria Boehm, the Clare Booth Luce Associate Professor of Structural Engineering at Stanford, was a co-author of the research report. "The current approach warns the public of the potential health risks of swimming at polluted beaches based on yesterday's news," she said.

Co-author Amanda Griesbach, a beach water quality scientist with Heal the Bay, noted, "We wanted to find a way to better protect the public health of the more than 150 million people who visit California beaches every year."

Currently, for financial and logistical reasons, most beach managers analyze swimming waters only once a week. These tests, which involve analyzing water samples for fecal indicator bacteria, generally take 18 to 24 hours. The fastest sampling method available can take up to six hours. In the meantime, swimmers continue swimming and water conditions can change within a few hours, making lab results inaccurate.

"We know for sure that the method used now is not accurate," said Boehm, a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

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Stanford study shows ways to improve public health at beaches