Photo by AdobeStock/assetseller
We all want our top investigative bodies to be headed by competent officials. We also all want to ensure that these officials can freely investigate other branches of the government including the presidential administration without fear of retribution. How can we tell whether Donald Trumps firing of FBI Director James Comey was meant to ensure competent leadership of the FBI, as Trump claims, or to prevent Comey from digging deeper into Trumps potential connections with Russia, as many Democrats claim.
Our personal political perspectives will strongly influence us to favor one explanation or the other, regardless of the truth. According to behavioral science research, our minds tend to interpret new information in accordance with our past beliefs a thinking error known as theconfirmation bias. Fortunately, we can fight the confirmation bias in such situations by evaluating the opinions of people who both have the most information and have political motivations to support one side, but fail to do so or even support the other side.
In this case, we can observe a number of prominent Republicansexpressing concernsover Comeys firing. Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr, a North Carolina Republican who heads the Senates Russia investigation, stated that he was troubled by the timing and reasoning of Comeys firing, which confuses an already difficult investigation for the Committee. So did a number of other influential Republican Senators, such as Bob Corker, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and stated in response to Trump firing Comey that "It is essential that ongoing investigations are fulsome and free of political interference until their completion. Representative Justin Amash, who belongs to the conservative House Freedom Caucus, even stated that he intends to introduce legislation calling for creating an independent commission to investigate Russia's interference in the election. Pat Tiberi, a conservative member of the House, expressedpotential support for a special prosecutor of the Trump and Russia connection and stated that the White House needs to come clean.
Altogether, about 40 Republican members of Congress have expressed concerns over Comeys firing, while virtually every Democrat is calling for an independent commission or special prosecutor to evaluate Comeys firing. While some of these Republicans are known for breaking ranks at times, such as Senator John McCain, many others such as Corker and Burr are mainstream Republicans who generally toe the party line. This data on many of those in the know federal lawmakers who have clear political motivation to align with Trump firing Comey instead broke ranks provides strong evidence that the decision to fire Comey is less about incompetence and more about the Russia investigation than anything else.
Another thinking error playing a role in clouding our judgment isillusory correlation, namely an incorrect illusory perception of a connection between two events. Trumps administration claimed, in a memo by deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein thatTrump referencedin his firing of Comey, that Comey lost support due to his handling of the investigation into Hillary Clintons email server. Democrats claimed that Trump fired Comey because of Comeys investigation into the Trump-Russia connection as part of Russias meddling in the US presidential elections.
One of these is an illusory connection, but which is it? Due to confirmation bias, Republicans will be likely to see the Trump-Russia connection as illusory. Democrats will tend to see the Clinton investigation connection as illusory.
Fortunately, we can use another technique from behavioral science to correct for this thinking error consider the alternative. Consider a situation where Trumps true concerns lay with Comeys Clinton email server investigation. When would Trump fire Comey if this was the case? Trump would fire Comey when Trump entered office, asTrump didwith a number of federal attorneys. Instead, Trump specificallymade a decisionto keep Comey in office when he took the presidency, despite knowing about Comeys handling of the email server. Trump specifically indicated, in a message loud and clear for the government investigative bodies, that he would not pursue any further investigation into Clintons email servershortly afterhe was elected. As late as April 12, long after Trump had access to any secret information about Comeys handling of Clintons email server and any other information relevant to Comeys pre-election activities, Trump saidin an interviewwith Fox Business Network I have confidence in [Comey]." Given this evidence, it seems quite unlikely that the real reason for Comeys firing is the Clinton email scandal.
What about the Trump-Russia investigation?According to Fox News, a conservative source, the day before he was fired, Comey met with the Republican and Democrat Senators on the Senate intelligence committee, Senators Richard Burr and Mark Warner. At the meeting, he discussed the inquiry into Russian hacking in the presidential election and potential involvement of Trump and members of his administration in this hacking. Burr and Warner both wanted Comey to speed up the investigation, and Comey responded that he needed more resources to conduct the investigation. Earlier, Comey allegedlymade a requestfor more resources for this investigation from Rosenstein, whose later memo was used by Trump as a reason to fire Comey. Given the evidence of the closeness of the timing of Comeys requests for more resources and Trump firing Comey, the connection between the investigation into Russian hacking and the firing of Comey appears to be true rather than illusory.
Now, this behavioral science-based conclusion does not favor the conservative perspective, and instead favors the liberal one. Will it mean that conservatives dismiss it out of hand? To determine if this is the case, I went on the conservative radio network 700WLW to speak on this topic with the well-known radio show hostScott Sloan two days after Comeys dismissal. Sloan is known as a strong proponent ofChristian and conservativevalues but not someone who practicespost-truth politicsby dismissing the truth in favor of his personal beliefs. We had acivil discussion, during which Sloan acknowledged the validity of this behavioral science-informed perspective and accepted that the evidence pointed against Trumps narrative. It is highly likely that our conversation swayed some of his conservative audience to change their perspective as well.
This interview shows the benefits of using such behavioral science-based approaches to bridge the political divide and have reasonable conversations that result in people going against their current values and changing their minds. What it takes is knowing why our minds are likely to lead us astray and addressing these internal biases using science-informed strategies to do so. In this case, the evidence once corrected for political bias points conclusively, in a way that both reasonable conservative and liberals can agree on, to Trump firing Comey due to concerns over the FBIs investigation into Russian interference in the election.
See the original post:
How Can We Tell Whether Comeys Firing Was Justified - Utne Reader Online
- Dan Ariely: It’s OK to cheat and steal (sometimes) - April 7th, 2010 [April 7th, 2010]
- Full Sail Behavioral Science Leadership Podcast - August 27th, 2011 [August 27th, 2011]
- Full Sail Behavioral Science Passion - August 27th, 2011 [August 27th, 2011]
- 13H Refutes CCHR: Industry of Death (Behavioral Science) - August 28th, 2011 [August 28th, 2011]
- College of Social and Behavioral Science - August 28th, 2011 [August 28th, 2011]
- GB: Behavioral Science Bill For Propaganda - August 29th, 2011 [August 29th, 2011]
- Criminal Minds - The Behavioral Science Part 2 - August 31st, 2011 [August 31st, 2011]
- Santhula Hospital - A clinical and research center for Nuero-behavioral Science - August 31st, 2011 [August 31st, 2011]
- Behavioral Science Self-Assesment Project - September 2nd, 2011 [September 2nd, 2011]
- Behavioral Science: OPTIMAN - September 3rd, 2011 [September 3rd, 2011]
- Forget the Cinderella effect: stepparents are just as likely to kill their biological children as their stepchildren - September 4th, 2011 [September 4th, 2011]
- The Behavioural Science Blog in 2010 - September 4th, 2011 [September 4th, 2011]
- introduction to behavioral science - September 4th, 2011 [September 4th, 2011]
- CSU's Behavioral Sciences Building - September 5th, 2011 [September 5th, 2011]
- Criminal Minds Season 2 - Backstage - Behavioral Science Real-life Criminal Minds (1 of 2) - September 6th, 2011 [September 6th, 2011]
- Behavioral Science: Goldielocks - September 6th, 2011 [September 6th, 2011]
- Dean Welcome Message - CalSouthern School of Behavioral Sciences - September 7th, 2011 [September 7th, 2011]
- Criminal Minds - The Behavioral Science Part 1 - September 9th, 2011 [September 9th, 2011]
- TEDx Bandung-Roby Muhamad-Socio Behavioural Science - September 14th, 2011 [September 14th, 2011]
- How Behavioral Science Applies to Marketing - Jason Anello - September 14th, 2011 [September 14th, 2011]
- Public Health Behavioral Science - September 15th, 2011 [September 15th, 2011]
- Full Sail Behavioral Science Video - September 15th, 2011 [September 15th, 2011]
- Introduction to Behavioural Science - September 15th, 2011 [September 15th, 2011]
- University of Arizona College of Social and Behavioral Sciences Commencement Speech - September 17th, 2011 [September 17th, 2011]
- Introduction to Behavioral Sciences OSPE - September 17th, 2011 [September 17th, 2011]
- Get to know NAU's College of Social and Behavioral Sciences - September 20th, 2011 [September 20th, 2011]
- 3 Minute Thesis 2010 runner-up - Will Harrison, Faculty of Social - September 24th, 2011 [September 24th, 2011]
- New Behavioral Sciences Building at Colorado State University - September 27th, 2011 [September 27th, 2011]
- Intro to Psych Statistics - September 28th, 2011 [September 28th, 2011]
- Why Do Voles Fall in Love? - September 29th, 2011 [September 29th, 2011]
- Behavioral Science: What problems do you have in your life? - September 30th, 2011 [September 30th, 2011]
- Behavioral Solutions for Climate - October 3rd, 2011 [October 3rd, 2011]
- College of Social and Behavioral Sciences (SBS) 2010 Senior Celebration - October 4th, 2011 [October 4th, 2011]
- Enhance Student Teaching Podcast - Full Sail University Behavioral Science Class - October 4th, 2011 [October 4th, 2011]
- Music and the Brain: Depression and Creativity Symposium - October 4th, 2011 [October 4th, 2011]
- Experiment Test - October 4th, 2011 [October 4th, 2011]
- Helen Palmer and The Enneagram - October 4th, 2011 [October 4th, 2011]
- Rapid Learning: Behavioral Science And Patient Treatment - Behavioral Physiolgy - October 4th, 2011 [October 4th, 2011]
- Meet Nicole in the Colorado State University Behavioral Sciences Building - October 4th, 2011 [October 4th, 2011]
- Life As A Full Sail Student Ep. 5 (Behavioral Science) - October 5th, 2011 [October 5th, 2011]
- Happy holidays from your friends in the College of Business and Behavioral Science - October 5th, 2011 [October 5th, 2011]
- Behavioral Science Jumping Hurdles Full Sail University - October 5th, 2011 [October 5th, 2011]
- Dr. Meera Narasimhan on Mental Illnesses - Part 1 - October 5th, 2011 [October 5th, 2011]
- Science needs you: Test your word power on iPhone / iPad with Science XL free app - October 5th, 2011 [October 5th, 2011]
- Definition of Culture - October 5th, 2011 [October 5th, 2011]
- OSP Presentation: Bou's Clues (University of Santo Tomas, Behavioral Science) - October 6th, 2011 [October 6th, 2011]
- Behavioral Sciences OSPE Part 7: Informational Care - October 6th, 2011 [October 6th, 2011]
- Criminal Minds Season 2: Behavioral Science - October 7th, 2011 [October 7th, 2011]
- Behavioral Science - York College CUNY - October 7th, 2011 [October 7th, 2011]
- Miswakology Behavioral Sciences - October 7th, 2011 [October 7th, 2011]
- Criminal Minds Season 2 - Backstage - Behavioral Science Real-life Criminal Minds (2 of 2) - October 11th, 2011 [October 11th, 2011]
- Behavioral Science (A Lesson In Self Control) - October 12th, 2011 [October 12th, 2011]
- BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE LECTURE 1 - Video - October 13th, 2011 [October 13th, 2011]
- TEDxGoodenoughCollege - Jan-Emmanuel De Neve - The Genetics of Happiness - Video - October 13th, 2011 [October 13th, 2011]
- Using Denial to Cope with Grief and Depression - Winifred Gallagher - Video - October 13th, 2011 [October 13th, 2011]
- How To Survive Full Sail University - Video - October 14th, 2011 [October 14th, 2011]
- Life Positive Expo 2008 Appreciate Inquiry with Dr. Wasundhara Joshi and R Sankarasubramanyan - Video - October 14th, 2011 [October 14th, 2011]
- Dr. Meera Narasimhan on Mental Illnesses - Part 3 - Video - October 14th, 2011 [October 14th, 2011]
- Learning and Memory - Video - October 16th, 2011 [October 16th, 2011]
- Behavioral Science Proposal - Video - October 17th, 2011 [October 17th, 2011]
- 13H Refutes CCHR: IOD (Chapter 7) Psychosurgery (1/2) - Video - October 23rd, 2011 [October 23rd, 2011]
- 13H Refutes CCHR: IOD (Chapter 8) Psychiatric Drugs (1/2) - Video - October 23rd, 2011 [October 23rd, 2011]
- OUTDATED : Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection - Video - October 24th, 2011 [October 24th, 2011]
- CSUDH College of Natural and Behavioral Sciences - October 24th, 2011 [October 24th, 2011]
- Behavioral Science - October 24th, 2011 [October 24th, 2011]
- Behavioral science project. ( just one part of it) - Video - October 24th, 2011 [October 24th, 2011]
- Ramp Modeling for Dickies (UST- Behavioral Science Presentation) - Video - October 24th, 2011 [October 24th, 2011]
- Search in Psychology and Behavioral Sciences - PSCY 2301 - Video - October 25th, 2011 [October 25th, 2011]
- Forgiveness: Jesus vs Behavioral Science - Video - October 25th, 2011 [October 25th, 2011]
- PsyD Graduate Discusses her Learning Experience at CalSouthern School of Behavioral Sciences - Video - October 25th, 2011 [October 25th, 2011]
- Behavioral Science Statistics: One Sample and Dependent t-te - Video - October 26th, 2011 [October 26th, 2011]
- Full Sail University Behavioral Science Self-Awareness Exercise - Video - October 26th, 2011 [October 26th, 2011]
- FBI Behavioral Science Unit Interview - Part 2 - Video - October 26th, 2011 [October 26th, 2011]
- Full Sail BS Lab 2 Proposal - Video - October 27th, 2011 [October 27th, 2011]
- Full Sail University-Behavioral Science- Jumping Hurdles Project - Video - October 27th, 2011 [October 27th, 2011]
- Being Human - Behavioral Science Project - Video - October 27th, 2011 [October 27th, 2011]
- Behavioral Sciences OSPE Part 3: Compliance - Video - October 27th, 2011 [October 27th, 2011]
- Behavioral Science Film Fest feat. BSA1D '09 - Video - October 28th, 2011 [October 28th, 2011]
- Dan Pink Plenary Speaker Landsdowne Residency, March 2010 - Video - November 7th, 2011 [November 7th, 2011]
- Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection - Video - November 8th, 2011 [November 8th, 2011]