Tesla, Inc.TSLA is slated to release first-quarter 2020 results on Apr 29, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarters earnings is pegged at 27 cents per share on revenues of $5.89 billion.
The electric-vehicle pioneer beat four-quarter 2019 earnings estimates on higher automotive revenues. Over the trailing four quarters, Tesla beat estimates on two occasions for as many misses, the average positive surprise being 281.3%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Tesla, Inc. Price and Consensus
Tesla, Inc. Price and Consensus
Tesla, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Tesla, Inc. Quote
Which Way are the Estimates Treading?
Hit by the coronavirus crisis, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Teslas first-quarter earnings per share has been revised downward by 33 cents to 27 cents in the past 30 days. However, the figure indicates a year-over-year surge of 109.31%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a year-over-year increase of 29.8%.
The increasing deliveries of Model 3, which forms a major chunk of the automakers overall deliveries, are likely to have aided Teslas automotive revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total automotive revenues is pegged at $4,467 million, suggesting an increase from the $3,724 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Further, the company registered record overall production and deliveries of 102,672 and 88,400 vehicles, respectively, in the first quarter of 2020, marking a year-over-year jump of 56.5% and 40.3%. Notably, despite the coronavirus outbreak, Tesla's Shanghai factory managed to hit record production levels during the quarter.
Moreover, Tesla reached an important milestone with the manufacture of its one millionth car a Tesla Model Y in first-quarter 2020. Notably, Teslas Model Y crossovers production started in January, while deliveries began in March, significantly ahead of schedule. This is also likely to have buoyed its earnings for the to-be-reported quarter.
However, the companys high R&D and SG&A costs are anticipated to have clipped margins in the March-end quarter. The firm is investing heavily to increase production capacity, boost Model 3 sales, launch Model Y, construct Gigafactories and enhance Supercharger infrastructure, which might have strained its financial prospects during the period in discussion.
Furthermore, with China being the biggest EV market, the countrys economic slowdown is likely to have hurt the companys prospects in the first quarter. Further, rising coronavirus fears, especially in March, are likely to have thwarted vehicle demand. The coronavirus crisis is also expected to have hurt Teslas sales due to factory closures and production shutdowns, hurting the EV maker.
What the Zacks Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here as elaborated below. You can see the complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Earnings ESP: Tesla has an Earnings ESP of -260.88%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of 44 cents per share, as against the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 27 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before theyre reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Tesla carries a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) currently.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks worth considering, as these have the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this time around:
Anthem, Inc. ANTM has an Earnings ESP of +1.28% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 currently. The company is slated to release first-quarter 2020 earnings on Apr 29.
The Allstate Corporation ALL is set to report quarterly numbers on May 6. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.21% and holds a Zacks Rank of 2, at present.
Cigna Corporation CI is scheduled to release earnings figures on Apr 30. The stock has an Earnings ESP of +1.53% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
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