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Tesla is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday. This quarter will be a big test, given the stocks mammoth 88% run in the past year.

The last time Tesla reported quarterly earnings, shares (ticker: TSLA) flew on a surprise profit. This time around, analysts expect a profit with consensus adjusted earnings estimates at $1.65 a share.

In a note to clients Monday, a team of analysts at Oppenheimer pointed to three key questions that they feel the current debate around the stock is centered on.

Those questions include whether Tesla can scale to one million annual deliveries in the next four to five years, whether Tesla can eventually hit double-digit operating margins at one million vehicles a year, and whether its fleet size can give it the edge over competitors when fully autonomous driving technology is ready for consumers.

We believe shares will trade along progress of those metrics while continuing to be volatile along the way, they wrote.

For this earnings report, though, Oppenheimer says its 2020 delivery outlook will be a big factor. Though consensus estimates sit at about 465,000 vehicles in 2020, the team believes investor expectations are closer to 480,000.

Given the German factory expected to break ground in 2020 and positioned for capacity expansion in China, we would expect bulls to continue looking at potential for multiyear growth, they wrote.

The analysts expect automotive gross margins in line with or above consensus at 21.9%. They also see upside to consensus free cash flow estimates at $429 million.

Beyond that, Oppenheimer says Teslas battery technology and powertrain design/optimization are areas where the company can sustain leads against competitors. Regarding autonomous driving, they expect limited information on incremental technology.

We believe TSLA is working closely with regulators to help determine how best to test emerging technology, they wrote. We expect those testing guidelines to continue to evolve as data collection mounts. We continue to believe TSLA has a key advantage based on number of vehicles running in shadow mode.

Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com

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Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Heres What to Expect. - Barron's