The tree is up. The hall is decorated. The presents are wrapped (sort of). There are eight boxes of crackers. I have just taken delivery of a 4.6kg turkey. We are ready. But for what exactly? Turns out no one is coming this year. And we arent going anywhere either. This is not the end of year we expected when we sent out 2020s first issue in January. Then we were worrying about stockmarket valuations and shifting cash into commodities, which we thought might be at the end of their vicious ten-year bear market.
The future turned out to be as unco-operative as usual. There was no way to know in January that a pandemic would close the world; that democracy would be effectively suspended across the West; that markets would hit new highs amid both a supply and demand crunch; that fiscal and monetary policy would merge into one great stimulus machine, rendering valuations irrelevant; that the main press topic in Christmas week would be the great festive lettuce shortage; and that I would hit 26 December with 3kg of excess turkey to fricassee.
So whats this years shock? Obviously, after the events of 2020, any forecasts must be read more for entertainment value than anything else. But in this week's magazine, Matthew Lynn offers a few of his expectations of the unexpected. Im hoping his last (the FTSE 100 to 10,000) comes true. It has underperformed horribly, but it is cheap and has to be a better bet than some of the capital-destroying businesses Bill Bonner rails against. Max King lists the investment trusts that have disappointed and thrilled him this year;David Stevenson reiterates our view on commodities (definitely a buy);and in our Roundtable weve lined up some of our favourite stockpickers and forced them to give us their best recommendations.
My own thoughts on 2021 will be familiar to regular readers. I think it will be pretty good. Vaccine roll out is faster than I expected (we are heading for one million a week), which should see the economy open faster than expected (when rising cases no longer equate to rising deaths, lockdown has to end). We are likely to see a wave of productivity as firms integrate all the technological lessons of 2020. All this will happen amid an ongoing wave of stimulus. Perhaps most importantly of all, the UK savings rate is still high households have cash to burn. Where will it go?
Here is where I think the miseries of the investment world might be surprised. Think about what you most want to do right now. Ill tell you what I want to do:drive and fly. And as soon as I can, that is what I will do. I will drive all over the UK seeing my family. I will take planes to all the places I want to go Greece, Florida, Iceland and perhaps even to Japan for the Olympics (Japan last hosted the Olympics in 1964, a year that marked its shift from enemy country to global economy see this week's magazine for why 2021 could be another good year in Japan). I wont be alone. We often talk about the pent-up demand for goods created by the pandemic. But dont underestimate the pent-up demand for physical freedom and the oil, airlines, restaurant seats and cars that will be needed to fuel it. Heres looking forward to the renewal of our commitment to that freedom in 2021 and to the investment opportunities that come with it. A very happy Christmas and New Year to all our readers.
Our first issue of 2021 will be with you on 8 January.
More here:
Here's looking forward to freedom in 2021 - MoneyWeek
- Patriots For Economic Freedom - December 8th, 2016 [December 8th, 2016]
- Fiscal Freedom and Financial Literacy Campaign :: City of ... - December 30th, 2016 [December 30th, 2016]
- To see how a bill becomes law, follow the money - News Sentinel - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Economy to grow more than 7 per cent next fiscal: Shaktikanta Das - The Indian Express - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Making the case for an RBI rate cut - Livemint - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Cotton Calls for a $26B Uptick in Planned Defense Supplemental - USNI News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Making A FOIA Request Is About To Get Tougher At FBI - Daily Caller - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Guest Article: Capitulation before the First Shots Are Fired - Somewhat Reasonable - Heartland Institute (blog) - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- U.S. Air Force extended some 800 million yen in funds to 128 ... - The Mainichi - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Greece and the Folly of Trying to Solve an Overspending Problem with Tax Increases - People's Pundit Daily - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Hill Republicans quake at Trump's budget-busting wish list - Politico - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Key conservative open to insurer payments during ObamaCare transition - The Hill - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Historic audit of illegitimate debts - Inquirer.net - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
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- Police Criticized as Violence Continues in Brazil's City of Vitria - The Rio Times - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Business divided on Malloy budget - CT Post - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- The United Kingdom and the Benefits of Spending Restraint - Cato Institute (blog) - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Trump Threatens to Cut Off Government Funds to Universities, and Why Not? - PanAm Post - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- For Philly Cops Already Awash in Overtime Pay, Another Boost -- Thanks to Trump - NBC 10 Philadelphia - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
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- MEL STA. MARIA | The 1987 Freedom Constitution should not be changed - InterAksyon - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Venezuela now leads US asylum requests as crisis deepens - Philly.com - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Promoting fiscal discipline - Daily Excelsior - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
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- Why Liberty Advocates Should Focus on Spending Restraint over Tax Hikes - PanAm Post - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- What the papers say: Britain's soaring EU budget bill shows Brexit can't happen soon enough - Spectator.co.uk (blog) - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Meet The Venezuelan-Born Mom Who Ran For State Senate To Stop Socialism - The Federalist - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- GOP defense hawks barely squawked on Mulvaney nomination - Washington Examiner - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Floyd Bledsoe urges Kansas to compensate the wrongfully convicted: 'I lost my freedom' - The Garden City Telegram - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Are Republicans Losing Momentum on Obamacare Repeal? - The Fiscal Times - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Study: US falls to 17th place in 2017 global economic freedom index - Economic Collapse News - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Mason Fiscal give WVFD go-ahead - Ledger Independent - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Officials Continue to Dodge Attempts to Disclose Use of Stingrays - Reason (blog) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- 10 Things to Know About Stephen Feinberg, Trump's Potential Intelligence Czar - The Fiscal Times - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Mason Fiscal gives WVFD go-ahead - Ledger Independent - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Senate Confirms Fiscal Hawk Mick Mulvaney As Trump's Budget Director - New York Magazine - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Thank You, Obama: US Steadily Lost Ground On Economic Freedom Over Past 8 Years - Investor's Business Daily - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Scott Pruitt: 5 Fast Facts You need to Know - Heavy.com - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Liberia Ahead Of Ukraine In Index of Economic Freedom 2017 - Global News Network - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- EDITORIAL: The United States continues to drop on the Heritage Foundation's index of economic freedom - Las Vegas Review-Journal - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- US Economic Freedom Hits Historic Low - theTrumpet.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Sounds of freedom rattling to far reaches of area - Jacksonville Daily News - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- State lawmakers looking at forced treatment as option to combat opioid crises - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Sri Lanka's govt. integrity, economic freedom deteriorate - Daily Mirror - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Budget 2017: Why taxes will increase - DA - Politicsweb - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- PH up by 12 notches in Economic Freedom Index 2017 ranking | SunStar - Sun.Star - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- County Commission Backs Medical Marijuana, Opposes School Vouchers - Memphis Daily News - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Kellogg column: Our culture must shift from dependent to interdependent - Glenwood Springs Post Independent - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- India's economic freedom plunge | Business Standard News - Business Standard - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Ohanaeze president worried about maltreatment of pro-Biafran members worries - Guardian - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Why is a freedom enshrined in the UN declaration of human rights ... - Stabroek News - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Gambia: Gambian Man Living In The United States; Former Jammeh Aide Sanna Jarju Named In A Multi million dollars ... - Freedom Newspaper - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Gauging the Trump Effect on Congress and the DOJ - Freedom Leaf (press release) (blog) - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- PH leaps in economic freedom; 'yes' to calls for lasting peace - Manila Bulletin - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Ohanaeze Ndigbo decries violence against MASSOB, IPOB - Vanguard - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- PH leaps 12 places in 2017 Economic Freedom Index - Filipino Reporter - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Read Scott Walker's Advice on How Republicans Should Handle Protests - TIME - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- JCPenney to close 13 to 14 percent of stores - Rome Sentinel - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Dj vu all over again - The Capitol Fax Blog (blog) - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Solution created for county builders - Morehead News - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Economic Freedom Up Again, But Not in the US - Investor's Business Daily - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Expect the unexpected with upcoming budget, appropriations cycle, experts say - FederalNewsRadio.com - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- Pleading poverty, demanding new taxes - Washington Times - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Newspaper lobby seeks Albany allies in fight for sunlight over state finances - Lockport Union-Sun & Journal - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Philippines Improves in Economic Freedom ranking | CFO innovation - CFO innovation ASIA - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- California lawmakers press ICE for information about raids - The Mercury News - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- ExclusiveRep. Meadows: We Won't Fix Healthcare By Replacing Obamacare with Another Bad Plan - Breitbart News - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Economic Freedom - HATICE KARAHAN - Yeni afak - Yeni afak English - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- California 'Trust Women' License Plates to Help Pay for Reproductive Care in Trump Era - Rewire - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Reader Viewpoint: Recognizing our imperfections, tribulations allows us to be wise - The Herald Bulletin - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- The Staggering Costs of Operating Air Force One - The Fiscal Times - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- How a Tenet of GOP Orthodoxy Slipped Away - Roll Call - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Who is the enemy? - Emporia Gazette - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Wake Up, Republicans: This Could Be the Democrats' Tea Party - POLITICO Magazine - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Pakistan ranked ahead India in Economic Freedom Index report ... - ARY NEWS - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Excess rules stifle freedom - The Robesonian - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Law & (Executive) Order - Patriot Post - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- A Closer Look at Trump's 10% Defense Spending Increase - Morningstar.com - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]