Keeping an eye on an area in the Caribbean –

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami are monitoring three areas of disturbed weather in the tropics, one of which is uncomfortably close to the Gulf of Mexico.

The following statement was issued on Monday:

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no closed circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is located about 135 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. This system continues to become better organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northeastward, near but offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States and then away from land. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or two. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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Keeping an eye on an area in the Caribbean -

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