S
When we think about futurism, often we imagine cutting-edge technologies like bionic arms or weather machines for colonizing Mars. But if we really want to make it for another few centuries, we're going to need something that Iran has already got.
To understand Iran's breakthrough, we need to go back in time to 1993, when President Obama's science adviser John Holdren was trying to figure out how big the world's population could get before there was a major energy crisis. A respected environmental scientist, Holdren offered up a famous scenario based on the world's population at that time.
At that time, Earth held 5.5 billion people (compared to today's 7 billion), who consumed 13 terawatts of energy annually. Of course, they were not consumed equally: people in the developing world consumed on average 1 kilowatt per person, while people in the developed world consumed 7.5. Holdren suggested that given current population growth rates, the world would need 8 times more energy to fuel its 14 billion people by the end of the twenty-first century. Which would mean total collapse of the ecosystem, peak oil, and likely both.
That sounded crazily horrific, so Holdren asked what would happen if the population only boomed to 10 billion, and everybody had equal access to energy. Even if everybody only used on average 3 kilowatts, the world would still require 30 terawatts of energy annually by the end of the twenty-first century.
S
Following up on Holdren's research, population biologists Paul Ehrlich, Ann Ehrlich and environmental scientist Gretchen Daily decided to reverse engineer the scenario. They wanted to figure out what the ideal population size would be, if we wanted people to have access to 3 kilowatts, without destroying the environment. In their calculations, they assumed a twenty-first century where people would adopt more carbon-neutral sources of energy, like solar. They also assumed that some animals would go extinct, but that enough would be brought back from the edge of extinction that our ecosystems would remain stable.
The result? The Ehrlichs and Daily found that the most the planet could bear at that level of energy use would be 2 billion people, roughly the world's population in the 1930s.
Confronted with numbers like that, it's tempting to throw up your hands and give up on humanity's future. How could we ever get the world's population back down to 2 billion from its current 7 billion? Actually, it can be done and it's been done before, on a smaller scale.
A few years before Holdren described his population scenario, there was already one country in the world whose leaders were deeply worried about the economic and environmental costs of rising population. In Iran, during the 1980s conflict with Iraq, the Ayatollah Khomeini instituted new government regulations that encouraged women to have as many children as they could to build a "Twenty Million Man Army." As a result, Iran's population grew from 37 million people in 1979, to 50 million in 1986. This was, according to journalist Alan Weisman, "the highest rate of population increase the world had ever seen."
Follow this link:
How Iran Became One of the World's Most Futuristic Countries
- Futurist Serata featuring artist Luca Buvoli at Brown (Nov. 20) - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- FUTUR1SM00GGI - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- ‘Futurism on Film’ Series this month in NYC - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Schedule of Futurist Events in NYC (PERFORMA 09: Nov 1-22) - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- ‘Futurismo/Futurizm: The Futurist Avant-Garde in Italy and Russia’ (Nov. 13 + 14) - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- ‘Beyond Futurism: F.T. Marinetti, Writer’ conference at Columbia (Nov. 12+13) - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Futurism and Cars at the Museo Nicolis - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- MoMA Film Series Marks Centenary of Futurism with Films - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- ‘Bergson+Futurism. Speed in thought’ - Madrid (Nov. 5) - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- ‘The Future in Five Senses: Echoes of Italian Futurism in New York Architecture and Design’ Nov. 16th NYC - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- New World-Wide Climate Treaty in 2010 More Likely - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Tar Sands CCS Myth Shattered - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Smart Grid and Smart Meters Get Big Grants - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Pollution Makes Methane Even More Dangerous - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Climate Change Bill Hearing Video - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- New Satellite to Monitor Water and Plant Growth - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Spiritual Battle Awaits the Deniers and Skeptics - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Effects of Climate Change are Observed World-Wide - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Get Yer Global Warming Science Here - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- TckTckTck Wake up Call — Delay Kills - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Canada’s Awful Gold Rush - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Climate Change Talks Spark Global Backlash by Businesses - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- World May Need Extra Year for Climate Treaty - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Senator Boxer Moves Climate Bill Despite Republican Obstructionism - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Lights out for incandescent lights? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Sutures from Bacteria - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Remote-Controlled Pigeons - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Apple Announces iPhone Release Date - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- UK Government Envisions a Grim Future - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Top Ten Emerging Technologies for the Environment - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- DIY Mobile Networks - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Stem-Cell Treatment Cures Type 1 Diabetes - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Is Tesla Getting the Electric Car Right? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Future of TV News - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Bruce Sterling on Earth-Friendly Pervasive Computing - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- First Step Toward Organ Regeneration in Humans - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- IBM's "Five in Five" - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Outsourced Journalism - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Is True Global Democracy the Next Great Political Movement? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Risks of Autonomous Robots - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Microsoft Introduces "Tabletop" PC - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Britain Piloting First Biofueled Train - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Self-Healing Plastic - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Bird Population Falls Over Past 40 Years - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The iPhone Revolution? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The End of "Cheap Food"? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How to Stop -- Or Live With -- Global Warming - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- MIT Demonstrates "Wireless Electricity" - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Unintended Consequences of Biofuels - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Time to Focus on the Big Picture in Copenhagen - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- Protests in Copenhagen - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- Mario Guido Dal Monte exhibit - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Futurism News Bulletin, xvi - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Viva il Futurismo! (video trailer) - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- 3 exhibits in Gorizia! - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Forthcoming: ‘Antidiets of the Avant-garde’ by Cecilia Novero - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Pubblicità e propaganda. Ceramica e grafica futuriste at the Wolfsoniana - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Balla’s home scheduled to open in 2010 - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Futurismo a Savona - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- ‘Zang Sud Sud’, Cosenza - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Conference in Rome (Dec. 10) - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Climate Hackergate: A Well-Orchestrated Campaign of Harassment - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- The Sad Story of Cap and Trade - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- How to Waste Trillions on Capturing Carbon - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Smack the Email Hack Attack - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- EPA About to Declare CO2 a Public Danger - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Copenhagen Summit Starts with Virtually There Media - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Climate Scientist Gets Blunt on Trading Scheme - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- One Climate Change Editorial in 56 Newspapers, 45 Countries - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- This Decade Will be Hottest Ever on Record - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Divide and Conquer - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Leave the Coal in the Hole! - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- COP15: Two Agreements Coming - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Climate and Copenhagen News December 10 - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Sea Level Already Rising on Atlantic Coast - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- ‘Umbria Veloce’ in Perugia - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- An Instable CO2-Filled Ocean - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- ‘Futurismi a Ravenna’ opens Dec. 19 - December 15th, 2009 [December 15th, 2009]
- ‘Futurism and the Technological Imagination’ – 30% discount until Jan. 15 - December 15th, 2009 [December 15th, 2009]
- Protecting Our Lungs at Copenhagen - December 15th, 2009 [December 15th, 2009]