Not necessarily, but we believe that diversification and asset allocation are the only two free lunches in the investment world.
We all know that Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) as measured by Statistics South Africa aims to track the change in the price of a basket of goods (deemed to be the average goods and services consumed by South Africans). We also know that individual CPI can be a lot higher than headline CPI if your personal basket of goods differs from the average basket.
Two big costs for middle class South African families are the cost of medical scheme membership and the cost of education. The prices of these services/products have increased at or near double-digit inflation for years. This is a worldwide phenomenon and attributable to the fact that these sectors are both labour intensive and employ people with scarce skills. An article The Great Affordability Crisis Breaking America published by The Atlantic, describes the hollowing out of the US middle class due to the increasing cost of healthcare, education and childcare.
The graph and tables below show that to keep up with inflation on medical insurance premiums and the cost of primary and secondary education, an after-tax return of between about 7.5% and 11.3% is required.
Medical scheme premium increases between 2012 and 2018
Graph A. Source: CMS
Between 2012 and 2018 contribution increases ranged between 7.2% and 11.3% while inflation, as measured by CPI, ranged between 4.6% and 6.4%. Despite the fact that annual salary adjustments have not kept up with contribution increases, the number of medical scheme members has grown, showing that middle-class South Africans consider medical scheme membership a necessity.
Table A below shows the increase in the cost of education at selected schools around the country over the last two years. For the purposes of this article, we looked at a range of government and private primary and high schools in middle/ upper areas. Costs exclude uniforms, deposits, discounts for upfront discount payments, compulsory foundation contributions, E-learning devices, school lunches, registration fees, school outings and school transport. The important thing in the table below is not the absolute cost of education, but the rate of increase in the fees.
The table shows that between 2018 and 2019 fee increases ranged between 7.79% and 9.9% and between 2019 and 2020 increases ranged between 6.08% and 10.38%.
2018
2019
Increase
2020
Increase
Spark Schools (Primary)
R23 100
R25 500
10.38%
St Johns College (Gr 3 to 7)
R113 784
R122 659
7.79%
R131 122
6.89%
King Edward VII, Jhb
R47 500
R51 800
9%
R56 400
8.8%
Wynberg Boys High, CT
R42 800
R46 500
8.6%
R50 400
8.38%
Victoria Park High, PE
R22 341
R24 224
8.4%
R26 400
8.98%
Jeppe Boys High, Jhb
R43 450
R47 150
8.5%
R50 700
7.52%
Spark Schools (High)
R30 000
R33 000
10%
Marist Brothers Linmeyer, Jhb Gr 10 -11
R80 690
R88 700
9.9%
R94 100
6.08%
Ashton International College, Ballito Grade 12
R91 380
R99 900
9.32%
R108 900
9.00%
Table A. Source: School websites.
These figures are broadly in line with those of February 2018 statistics from Statistics South Africa which reported CPI of 3.8%, inflation at primary and secondary schools of 7.6%, inflation at tertiary institutions of 6.2% and the inflation of boarding expenses at universities at 8.5%. In February 2019, when CPI was 3.9%, primary and secondary education had increased by 7.7%, tertiary education costs had increased by 5.3% and the cost of boarding at universities was up by 8.3%.
Table B below shows the average, annualised performance of selected South African unit trusts in rands over different time periods and the performance of the JSE All Share over the same period. It shows that South Africans invested in the Multi-Asset class of unit trusts have had returns lower than the desired 8% over the last five years.
3 years (%)
5 years (%)
10 years (%)
15 years (%)
MA Low
5.83
5.64
7.85
8.64
MA Medium
5.08
4.73
8.21
9.31
MA High
4.75
4.56
8.59
9.95
MA Flex
3.01
3.44
8.21
9.87
JSE All Share
Go here to read the rest:
Do you have to invest offshore to get a proper return? - Moneyweb.co.za
- Home | Discover Oil & Gas | Rigzone - December 8th, 2016 [December 8th, 2016]
- Offshore - Wikipedia - December 8th, 2016 [December 8th, 2016]
- EscapeArtist - Live, Work, Travel, Retire & Invest Overseas - December 15th, 2016 [December 15th, 2016]
- Offshore installation manager - Wikipedia - December 30th, 2016 [December 30th, 2016]
- Offshore Energy 17 - January 12th, 2017 [January 12th, 2017]
- Offshore Drilling and Exploration - The New York Times - February 2nd, 2017 [February 2nd, 2017]
- Offshore - novenco-marine.com.php56serv2.webhosting.dk - February 5th, 2017 [February 5th, 2017]
- Further decline in North Sea offshore supply work - BBC News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Japan ignores protests, begins offshore construction work on ... - RT - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Offshore Drillers Are Still Seeking Recovery Enjoyed by Shale - Bloomberg - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Offshore Profits and US Exports - Council on Foreign Relations (blog) - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Diamond Offshore Surprises Everyone With a Fourth Quarter Earnings Gain - Madison.com - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Dems: Don't repeal offshore tax rules - The Hill - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Offshore Wind Moves Into Energy's Mainstream - New York Times - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Trump's Plan to Tap Offshore Profit for Infrastructure Gains an Ally - Bloomberg - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- China Regulator Urges Insurers to Avoid 'Reckless' Offshore ... - Insurance Journal - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Perriello comes out against pipeline and, in a shift, says he is skeptical of offshore drilling - Washington Post - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- AGL to head offshore amid limited growth options locally - The Sydney Morning Herald - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Should Diamond Offshore (DO) Stock Be in Your Portfolio? - Zacks.com - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Wind Overtakes Coal Power in Europe as Turbines Head Offshore - Bloomberg - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Cuba Eager to Develop Offshore Oil Reserves | OilPrice.com - OilPrice.com - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Eni starts production of East Hub Development Project, offshore Angola - Offshore Technology - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- 'Fifty Shades Darker' Unmasks $22M In Offshore Foreplay International Box Office - Deadline - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Statoil looks to Newfoundland offshore after selling off all oilsands assets - Globalnews.ca - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Coalition urged to charge 10% royalty on offshore oil and gas projects - The Guardian - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Israel Puts Off License Award In First Offshore Oil, Gas Bid Round - OilPrice.com - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Cost Impact of Immigration and Visa Reform to US Customers Using Offshore Services - Forbes - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- These Offshore Drilling Stocks Are Up Big as Earnings Season Starts - Fox Business - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Offshore projects help raise profile of wind power in US, Europe - WorkBoat (blog) - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Shares of Seadrill Went in the Exact Opposite Direction of Other Offshore Drillers in January - Motley Fool - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- After selling off all oilsands assets, Statoil looks to Newfoundland offshore - Calgary Herald - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Oil and Gas Stock Roundup: The Outlook for Offshore Drilling Continues to Dim - Fox Business - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Diamond Offshore Surprises Everyone With a Fourth Quarter ... - Motley Fool - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Diamond Offshore Is A Hold - Seeking Alpha - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Trudeau: Arctic offshore drilling too dangerous - The Independent Barents Observer - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Don't Overlook This Cost-Effective Alternative To Offshore Services - Forbes - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Legislation could mean an economic boost in New Bedford offshore wind projects - SouthCoastToday.com - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Ontario signals extension on offshore wind project moratorium - BNN - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Oil Majors' Plans - No Relief For Offshore Drillers - Seeking Alpha - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Director hits back at offshore worker blacklisting claims - BBC News - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- OPEC Report: Pressure On Offshore Drilling Remains - Seeking Alpha - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- UK Offshore Wind Construction Had Bumper Year In 2016, Barbour ABI - CleanTechnica - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Trump urged to back offshore - Offshore Wind | reNEWS ... - reNews - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Russian Spy Ship Spotted Offshore From Connecticut; Congressman Says Goal Is To Test US - CBS Local - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Australia Accused Of Committing Crimes Against Humanity In Offshore Detention Centres - BuzzFeed News - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- US Wind Secures Cabling Partner For MD Offshore Project - North American Windpower - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Professional Diversity Network: Offshore Investment Fund, Dropping ... - Seeking Alpha - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Vineyard Power vying for offshore wind farm - News - capecodtimes ... - Cape Cod Times (subscription) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Liquidity Warnings Send Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc.'s Stock Plunging - Motley Fool - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Will Offshore Stymie Oil States? - Seeking Alpha - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Enbridge Partners with EnBW on 497-MW German Offshore Wind Project - Marketwired (press release) - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- JDR lands US offshore bounty - reNews - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Natural gas leaks from offshore pipeline in Alaska - Press Herald - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Halliburton's GRIP delivers rapid response to offshore source-control incidents - WorldOil (subscription) - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Model advances analysis of offshore BOP closure during extreme conditions - WorldOil (subscription) - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- IRS Cracks Down on Offshore Tax Cheats - CPAPracticeAdvisor.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Vineyard Power vying for offshore wind farm - Cape Cod Times (subscription) - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Offshore Yuan Exposed to Onshore Risks as Spread Narrows - DailyFX - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Offshore Somalia: East Africa's Oil Frontier - Midnimo Information Center - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Emas Offshore refinancing deal delayed - Splash 247 - Splash 247 - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- The Offshore Markets: 2016 In Review - Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Court Declines to Halt Long Island Offshore Wind Lease - RTO Insider - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Fuel the American economy with offshore energy - The Detroit News - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Congress says won't renew liquor licenses of offshore casinos in Goa - Times of India - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- An offshore deal for Indigenous people? - Policy Options (registration) - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Exclusive: Petronas considers $1 billion stake sale in offshore gas project - sources - Reuters - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- JDR wins US offshore wind farm work - OE Digital - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Offshore Drilling - 2 Floaters Needed In The Verbier Field And In The Partridge Prospect In UK North Sea - Seeking Alpha - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Rystad Energy Believes That Offshore Projects Are Becoming Competitive Again - Seeking Alpha - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- EnBW Hohe See 500 MW Offshore Wind Farm To Proceed With Siemens & Enbridge - CleanTechnica - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Offshore catering staff reject offer after phone ballot - BBC News - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Child abuse inquiry to hold limited public hearings into offshore ... - The Guardian - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Iberdrola Completes Installation Of First Turbine At 350 Megawatt ... - CleanTechnica - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Offshore drilling opponents re-gear for new round of battles | News ... - Charleston Post Courier - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Hornbeck Offshore Services: Too Many Problems Will Drag The Stock Further Down - Seeking Alpha - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- US grid can handle more offshore wind power, cutting pollution and power costs - Science Daily - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Fugro to conduct natural leakage survey in offshore Kenya ... - Offshore Technology - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Russia inks second Turkish Stream pipe offshore construction contract - New Europe - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Trump to seek jobs advice from firms that offshore US work - Reuters - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- W&T Offshore Expected to Reduce Net Losses in 4Q16 - Market Realist - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]