Hornbeck Offshore (NYSE:HOS) shares tanked following the company's recent quarterly report. The numbers themselves were not surprising given the horrible market environment - the company reported a net loss of $0.53 per share on revenues of $41.9 million.
To get a quick picture of how bad things are, revenues declined by 52.8% since the fourth quarter of 2015 and by 19.3% since the third quarter of 2016. As a result of poor market conditions, the company had to stack 25 more vessels.
As I stated above, the results themselves are not a surprise at all. Perhaps, seeing actual numbers was a pain for Hornbeck Offshore investors, and this partially caused the post-earnings sell-off.
Also, the stock was elevated after the post-OPEC deal rally, although the deal changed nothing yet for the offshore drilling industry as was highlighted many times during this earnings season (read here, here and here).
However, the most important factor for any company is the outlook, and the outlook presented by Hornbeck Offshore management was just horrific.
Here's what Hornbeck Offshore had to say:
"We project that even with the current depressed operating levels, cash generated from operations, together with cash on hand, should be sufficient to fund our operations and commitments at least through to our current guidance period ending December 31, 2018.
However, absent improved market conditions, we do not currently expect to have sufficient liquidity to repay our three tranches of funded unsecured debt outstanding that mature in fiscal years 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively, as they come due, unless such debt is refinanced or restructured.
Refinancing in the current climate may not be achievable on terms that are in line with our historic cost of debt capital. We are fully aware of the challenges of current market conditions are presenting to all offshore oil and gas industry and continue to actively review our capital structure and assess our strategic options, as we consider plans to ensure the long-term viability of Hornbeck Offshore".
In the previous report, the company warned investors that it was going to assess strategic options, but the language was softer. Now Hornbeck Offshore presented the big picture to investors - the company will have no money to pay debt in 2019 and will have to restructure its debt.
I would like to highlight that it does not even matter for Hornbeck Offshore if the industry rebounds by 2019 or not. The rationale for this statement is that Hornbeck Offshore management believes that it will be necessary to address the capital structure long before 2019. As always, concessions from lenders mean big concessions from shareholders.
Judging by Hornbeck Offshore comments, the company will try to push maturities as far as possible as it does not see any recovery coming soon:
"Earlier in this cycle, the industry mantra was lower for longer. The message we have recently been hearing from our customers, almost uniformly, is that they now see oil prices as lower forever. They no longer view this as a U-shape recovery, but an L-shaped recovery, or so we're told []
Our customers are telling us, they're not going to FID or sanction projects in deepwater. I mean, this is what they're telling us, $40 a barrel. They're going to have to justify $40 a barrel, not $50, but $40".
Here's what we see from this and what the market has so far failed to appreciate in both OSV and OSD stocks.
No matter what the current oil price is, the breakeven bar for projects is set low because oil producers don't want to be trapped in capital-intensive endeavors if oil goes below $50.
Once again, I remind that it does not matter now if they are right or wrong in their evaluation, because they will act upon their views and this means little demand for OSD and OSV industries.
The year 2017 is going to be bad for the industry and for Hornbeck Offshore. The company will likely see its revolving credit line go from $200 million to $75 million as it plans to elect interest coverage holiday at some point during this year.
There is no cash crunch as the company had $217 million at the end of 2016, but this number will trend down as the year progresses.
The deal with creditors won't be easy to reach as highlighted by the problems of Hornbeck Offshore's peer, Tidewater (NYSE:TDW).
Tidewater's shareholders are already on the verge of a wipeout. The situation for Hornbeck Offshore shareholders is better, as the company did not ran into any covenant and does not depend on lenders' good will.
Anyway, proactive attempts to deal with debt mean nothing good for shareholders unless the company can suddenly gain access to capital markets.
At the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017, a group of offshore drillers, namely Transocean (NYSE:RIG), Rowan (NYSE:RDC), Noble Corp. (NYSE:NE), Ensco (NYSE:ESV) and Atwood Oceanics (NYSE:ATW) were able to raise money through debt and equity.
The window of opportunity was opened by the OPEC/non-OPEC deal, but I believe that it has already shut down as no tangible evidence of any improvements on the offshore drilling front materialized after the deal.
Also, players with financial problems like Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL) or Ocean Rig (NASDAQ:ORIG) were not able to raise money during this fortunate period. Yes, Seadrill is in restructuring negotiations right now, but even its founder is not willing to inject money via equity. So, for weaker industry players like Hornbeck Offshore or Tidewater the market was never really opened.
All in all, Hornbeck Offshore still has time to review its strategic options and I expect that the company will not hurry.
Any negotiations with creditors will take long as evidenced by Tidewater and Seadrill restructuring negotiations. Given the uncertainty, the stock will be highly volatile and present trading opportunities on both long and short sides.
However, the general direction will be to the downside as the OSV industry is the last one in the supply chain to benefit from rising oil prices, and current oil prices are not sufficient enough to bail out the OSD industry, the client of the OSV industry.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in HOS over the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Read the original:
Hornbeck Offshore Services: Too Many Problems Will Drag The Stock Further Down - Seeking Alpha
- Home | Discover Oil & Gas | Rigzone - December 8th, 2016 [December 8th, 2016]
- Offshore - Wikipedia - December 8th, 2016 [December 8th, 2016]
- EscapeArtist - Live, Work, Travel, Retire & Invest Overseas - December 15th, 2016 [December 15th, 2016]
- Offshore installation manager - Wikipedia - December 30th, 2016 [December 30th, 2016]
- Offshore Energy 17 - January 12th, 2017 [January 12th, 2017]
- Offshore Drilling and Exploration - The New York Times - February 2nd, 2017 [February 2nd, 2017]
- Offshore - novenco-marine.com.php56serv2.webhosting.dk - February 5th, 2017 [February 5th, 2017]
- Further decline in North Sea offshore supply work - BBC News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Japan ignores protests, begins offshore construction work on ... - RT - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Offshore Drillers Are Still Seeking Recovery Enjoyed by Shale - Bloomberg - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Offshore Profits and US Exports - Council on Foreign Relations (blog) - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Diamond Offshore Surprises Everyone With a Fourth Quarter Earnings Gain - Madison.com - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Dems: Don't repeal offshore tax rules - The Hill - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Offshore Wind Moves Into Energy's Mainstream - New York Times - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Trump's Plan to Tap Offshore Profit for Infrastructure Gains an Ally - Bloomberg - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- China Regulator Urges Insurers to Avoid 'Reckless' Offshore ... - Insurance Journal - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Perriello comes out against pipeline and, in a shift, says he is skeptical of offshore drilling - Washington Post - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- AGL to head offshore amid limited growth options locally - The Sydney Morning Herald - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Should Diamond Offshore (DO) Stock Be in Your Portfolio? - Zacks.com - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Wind Overtakes Coal Power in Europe as Turbines Head Offshore - Bloomberg - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Cuba Eager to Develop Offshore Oil Reserves | OilPrice.com - OilPrice.com - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Eni starts production of East Hub Development Project, offshore Angola - Offshore Technology - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- 'Fifty Shades Darker' Unmasks $22M In Offshore Foreplay International Box Office - Deadline - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Statoil looks to Newfoundland offshore after selling off all oilsands assets - Globalnews.ca - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Coalition urged to charge 10% royalty on offshore oil and gas projects - The Guardian - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Israel Puts Off License Award In First Offshore Oil, Gas Bid Round - OilPrice.com - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Cost Impact of Immigration and Visa Reform to US Customers Using Offshore Services - Forbes - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- These Offshore Drilling Stocks Are Up Big as Earnings Season Starts - Fox Business - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Offshore projects help raise profile of wind power in US, Europe - WorkBoat (blog) - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Shares of Seadrill Went in the Exact Opposite Direction of Other Offshore Drillers in January - Motley Fool - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- After selling off all oilsands assets, Statoil looks to Newfoundland offshore - Calgary Herald - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Oil and Gas Stock Roundup: The Outlook for Offshore Drilling Continues to Dim - Fox Business - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Diamond Offshore Surprises Everyone With a Fourth Quarter ... - Motley Fool - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Diamond Offshore Is A Hold - Seeking Alpha - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Trudeau: Arctic offshore drilling too dangerous - The Independent Barents Observer - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Don't Overlook This Cost-Effective Alternative To Offshore Services - Forbes - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Legislation could mean an economic boost in New Bedford offshore wind projects - SouthCoastToday.com - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Ontario signals extension on offshore wind project moratorium - BNN - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Oil Majors' Plans - No Relief For Offshore Drillers - Seeking Alpha - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Director hits back at offshore worker blacklisting claims - BBC News - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- OPEC Report: Pressure On Offshore Drilling Remains - Seeking Alpha - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- UK Offshore Wind Construction Had Bumper Year In 2016, Barbour ABI - CleanTechnica - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Trump urged to back offshore - Offshore Wind | reNEWS ... - reNews - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Russian Spy Ship Spotted Offshore From Connecticut; Congressman Says Goal Is To Test US - CBS Local - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Australia Accused Of Committing Crimes Against Humanity In Offshore Detention Centres - BuzzFeed News - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- US Wind Secures Cabling Partner For MD Offshore Project - North American Windpower - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Professional Diversity Network: Offshore Investment Fund, Dropping ... - Seeking Alpha - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Vineyard Power vying for offshore wind farm - News - capecodtimes ... - Cape Cod Times (subscription) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Liquidity Warnings Send Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc.'s Stock Plunging - Motley Fool - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Will Offshore Stymie Oil States? - Seeking Alpha - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Enbridge Partners with EnBW on 497-MW German Offshore Wind Project - Marketwired (press release) - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- JDR lands US offshore bounty - reNews - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Natural gas leaks from offshore pipeline in Alaska - Press Herald - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Halliburton's GRIP delivers rapid response to offshore source-control incidents - WorldOil (subscription) - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Model advances analysis of offshore BOP closure during extreme conditions - WorldOil (subscription) - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- IRS Cracks Down on Offshore Tax Cheats - CPAPracticeAdvisor.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Vineyard Power vying for offshore wind farm - Cape Cod Times (subscription) - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Offshore Yuan Exposed to Onshore Risks as Spread Narrows - DailyFX - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Offshore Somalia: East Africa's Oil Frontier - Midnimo Information Center - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Emas Offshore refinancing deal delayed - Splash 247 - Splash 247 - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- The Offshore Markets: 2016 In Review - Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Court Declines to Halt Long Island Offshore Wind Lease - RTO Insider - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Fuel the American economy with offshore energy - The Detroit News - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Congress says won't renew liquor licenses of offshore casinos in Goa - Times of India - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- An offshore deal for Indigenous people? - Policy Options (registration) - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Exclusive: Petronas considers $1 billion stake sale in offshore gas project - sources - Reuters - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- JDR wins US offshore wind farm work - OE Digital - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Offshore Drilling - 2 Floaters Needed In The Verbier Field And In The Partridge Prospect In UK North Sea - Seeking Alpha - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Rystad Energy Believes That Offshore Projects Are Becoming Competitive Again - Seeking Alpha - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- EnBW Hohe See 500 MW Offshore Wind Farm To Proceed With Siemens & Enbridge - CleanTechnica - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Offshore catering staff reject offer after phone ballot - BBC News - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Child abuse inquiry to hold limited public hearings into offshore ... - The Guardian - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Iberdrola Completes Installation Of First Turbine At 350 Megawatt ... - CleanTechnica - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Offshore drilling opponents re-gear for new round of battles | News ... - Charleston Post Courier - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- US grid can handle more offshore wind power, cutting pollution and power costs - Science Daily - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Fugro to conduct natural leakage survey in offshore Kenya ... - Offshore Technology - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Russia inks second Turkish Stream pipe offshore construction contract - New Europe - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Trump to seek jobs advice from firms that offshore US work - Reuters - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- W&T Offshore Expected to Reduce Net Losses in 4Q16 - Market Realist - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- New tax measure takes aim at Offshore Trusts - BizNews - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]