Typhoon Hagupit as it intensified on Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2014.

Image: NOAA

By Andrew Freedman2014-12-03 18:14:52 UTC

Update: 9:10 a.m. ET: Super Typhoon Hagupit may be peaking in strength this morning, with maximum sustained winds of about 170 miles per hour. All weather agencies, from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in the U.S. to the Philippines' own agency known as PAGASA, now forecast the storm making a slow trek across several Philippine islands starting on Saturday. However, these agencies still disagree on the storm track and intensity, and the specifics are going to matter a great deal.

It will not be nearly as intense as Super Typhoon Haiyan was last year when that storm made landfall near Tacloban in the central Philippines. Still, Hagupit, also known as Typhoon Ruby in the Philippines, poses a multitude of life-threatening risks, from rainfall-induced landslides to high winds and storm surge flooding.

Update: 5:15 p.m. ET: Typhoon Hagupit has been upgraded to super typhoon status, with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour as of 5 p.m. ET. The storm is forecast to intensify further, potentially reaching high-end Category 5 status with maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour on Thursday.

The latest storm track forecast from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center has shifted the storm west compared to the previous forecast, which would take the storm closer to the Philippines, while still turning the storm to the north as it approaches the island nation. However, the Philippines' own forecast agency, in a forecast that is supported by forecast agencies in Japan, Taiwan and other Asian nations, is predicting the storm will make landfall near the island of Leyte on Saturday, local time. This would affect the same area as Super Typhoon Haiyan last year.

However, even if the storm reaches Category 5 intensity on Wednesday night and Thursday, it is likely to slow its forward speed significantly and weaken before it approaches the Philippines. However, it is still forecast to be a typhoon at that point.

Super Typhoon Hagupit is now the sixth super typhoon to form in the Western Pacific Ocean so far this year.

Update: 3:30 p.m. ET: Typhoon Hagupit has intensified significantly since Wednesday morning, and is now nearing super typhoon status, at the border of a Category 4 or 5 storm based on satellite imagery. It is expected to remain a very intense storm through at least Thursday, before it begins weakening as it gets closer to the Philippines.

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Super Typhoon Hagupit may try for a near-repeat of deadly Typhoon Haiyan