Less than seven weeks ago, Dallas introduced the first restrictions related to COVID-19, limiting gatherings to fewer than 50 people. Doesnt that feel like a lifetime ago?
Since then, life has been turned upside down. In a matter of weeks, gatherings of any size were banned, nonessential businesses, day cares and schools closed, and people were encouraged to stay at home.
Ours was flagged as a city of concern. Id be worried about Dallas, the American Enterprise Institutes Scott Gottlieb told Politico in March, citing the lack of testing in Texas leading to a likely undercount of infections. Our hospitals had the eerie feeling of calm before the storm. Infections started rising. We braced for the worst.
Just two week ago, Dallas County began requiring people to wear masks in public. At the time, my family had two paper masks given to us by a friend, which we started recycling. Like most millennials, I do not own a sewing machine and remember little from eighth grade home economics except for making a sinful macaroni and cheese from scratch.
Takeout margaritas from struggling restaurants and walks with loved ones spaced 6 feet apart became bright spots amid an otherwise depressing landscape of neighborhood stores with closed signs, stories of lost jobs and illness, runs on food pantries, and an emergency homeless shelter set up at the convention center. Thankfully, the curve in Dallas has largely flattened, likely in part from the restrictions in place, though we had one of our deadliest days last Tuesday, suggesting we are not yet out of the woods.
This is why reopening Texas however necessary, however measured feels like a seesaw. Its been a lot. A lot of us are still shellshocked by it all. Almost everything has changed in a short period of time. Then just as soon as it all began, a way out appears.
This will be the first full week that Gov. Greg Abbotts order to reopen Texas takes effect. A selection of industries, including restaurants, malls and movie theaters, are allowed to reopen at 25% capacity. But it wasnt that long ago that the federal government recommended people keep 30 days of food and self-care supplies on hand in case they couldnt be readily accessed. These changes take a level of mental gymnastics. We should be gentle and gracious with ourselves for coming to terms with it all.
In general, Texas reopening strategy strikes the right balance of economic and health risks. While the coastal elite may shake their heads at another red states venture into the wild west, the order appears cautious and measured, unlike the plans in, say, Georgia. It makes sense to stagger the industries that can open based on those that involve the least human contact, and to open at smaller capacities to see if outbreaks are triggered before opening more broadly.
Encouragingly, the businesses being allowed to open first are mostly in line with the Johns Hopkins Public Health Principles for phased reopening during COVID-19, which ranked sectors by contact intensity. Low-contact interactions were defined as being brief and from a distance, and high-contact interactions being prolonged exposure at close proximity. Not surprisingly, retail is relatively low (and thus opening first) compared to gyms, public transit or places of worship. Many businesses and consumers are likely to take a wait-and-see approach, so capacity is likely to be below that which is allowed.
It would inspire more confidence if the testing were in place for assessing if new outbreaks occur. This is not just nice to have, its the linchpin for the entire strategy to work. In the Gottlieb American Enterprise Institute report on the road map to reopening, the trigger for reopening businesses of any type and schools, includes being able to test everyone with COVID-19 symptoms and active monitoring of patients and their contacts. Thats in addition to a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days. Texas is not there. It appears that Abbott is taking a bit of a divide-and-conquer strategy, instead of reopening with full testing, to partially reopen with partial testing. The spacing of Abbotts phases (on May 18, gyms open, among other businesses, and capacity increases to 50%) feels far too short to fully understand the impact of reopening on infection rates, given the testing gaps.
After the economic destruction from the last two months, its clear we need a more calibrated approach than what weve been living before a vaccine is developed. That said, the hope of normal must be marked with a dose of realism. This is not getting through a series of reopenings without spikes in infection and we are in the clear come July. The head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently said its not a question of if coronavirus will return in the fall; the virus most certainly will. This time must be used to get ready.
Even with reopening, the economic damage is far from a one- or two-quarter blip with a swoosh on the back end. The Congressional Budget Office released a report last week showing that unemployment would likely stay elevated above 10% until sometime in 2021. The impacts of the pandemic, even upon reopening, will be with us for some time.
The reopening should be thought of as baby steps on a long road. The challenge before us is to balance hope and recovery with reason and protection in the continued threat of illness. Texas has taken a first step in that direction.
Abby McCloskey is an economist and founder of McCloskey Policy LLC. She has advised multiple presidential campaigns. Website: mccloskeypolicy.com
View post:
- Hang onto your hats--More Redheads RFL Shopping 🙂 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why I Relay -- from Daaneth Kivioq - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Two Upcoming Events! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- We had fun AND ... - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why I Relay -- from Edith Halderman & Envy Watts - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Toga! Toga! We had fun and raised 5k for RFL! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- "Duel of the DJ's" --THIS Sunday, April 19 at 1pm - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Dressing for Relay Events... Lag in Style! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- "Duel of the DJ's" -- TODAY Sun, April 19 at 1pm - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Relay Shopping Made Easy! Our Very Own Store! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- We have a winner! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Not to Miss! Frogg & Jaycatt Saturday at 1pm SLT - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Thank You Frogg, Jaycatt, Lomgren and Luskwood! GO RELAY! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Upcoming Events in Redhead-land - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- In Memory of ... Lachlan Campbell - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- More Goodies in Our RFL Store - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The BIG Blowout Event! 12-3pm SLT Tomorrow! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- ONE WORLD, ONE HOPE! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- We miss you Fimi! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Redheads Know How To Partay!!! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- We had a BALL! And the SILENT AUCTION continues... - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- RenFaire! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Rocking With Yahshvah Shinja - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- WOW! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- What a weekend that was! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 2010 Blog! - April 4th, 2010 [April 4th, 2010]
- Brian Scalabrine - The World's Greatest - Video - March 29th, 2012 [March 29th, 2012]
- Red strength hint in caution notice - April 25th, 2012 [April 25th, 2012]
- Emma Roberts turns heads at Coachella - April 25th, 2012 [April 25th, 2012]
- Cartoon of the Day: Chelsea's battered bus leaves Terry behind and heads for Munich after rolling over Barcelona - April 25th, 2012 [April 25th, 2012]
- Kaskade Heads Out On 'Freaks Of Nature' Tour, Gives Us Full-Body Chills (VIDEO) - April 25th, 2012 [April 25th, 2012]
- Red shirts divided over Prem meet - April 25th, 2012 [April 25th, 2012]
- Snobby Mr. Douchey - Ep: 6 - Video - May 4th, 2012 [May 4th, 2012]
- Ep. 3 MALLSCAPADE: Squaresville (A new free web show about growing up bored in the suburbs) - Video - May 4th, 2012 [May 4th, 2012]
- My Sisters: Problematic to Practically Perfect - Ep: 2 - Video - May 4th, 2012 [May 4th, 2012]
- Backstage Girls- Episode 2: Bobby Brown's Every Little Step - Video - May 4th, 2012 [May 4th, 2012]
- Red Heads for Red Heads with Cornelia Frances for The Orangutan Project - Video - May 4th, 2012 [May 4th, 2012]
- More Theatre of Life: Gay Witchcraft - Video - May 4th, 2012 [May 4th, 2012]
- Asian Red Head - Video - May 4th, 2012 [May 4th, 2012]
- Red Devils baseball team wins play-in game vs. North Sevier, heads to 2A tourney - May 5th, 2012 [May 5th, 2012]
- Ask Nick: Is something wrong with Gonzalez? - May 5th, 2012 [May 5th, 2012]
- Red Bluff Lady Spartans blast Lassen 13-0 - May 5th, 2012 [May 5th, 2012]
- Camelot heads 2,000 Guineas field - May 5th, 2012 [May 5th, 2012]
- Tech baseball heads to College Station for final time - May 5th, 2012 [May 5th, 2012]
- Joe Stortini heads list of local all-state basketball players - May 5th, 2012 [May 5th, 2012]
- 'White Rabbit, Red Rabbit' review: never the same - May 7th, 2012 [May 7th, 2012]
- Red sea of Clippers fans lifts team to win - May 7th, 2012 [May 7th, 2012]
- Reynolds and Hammel carry Orioles past Red Sox 8-2 - May 7th, 2012 [May 7th, 2012]
- Gillard, Abbott promote Red Cross - May 7th, 2012 [May 7th, 2012]
- The Duchess of Cambridge turns heads with glamorous cream dress - May 10th, 2012 [May 10th, 2012]
- Royals 4, Red Sox 3: Two out of three is bad - May 10th, 2012 [May 10th, 2012]
- The power of a sign - May 10th, 2012 [May 10th, 2012]
- Met Ball 2012 Red Carpet: Stars Shine In Metallic Frocks - May 10th, 2012 [May 10th, 2012]
- Morning Mail: Red Sox fan wears bag on head, starts social media storm - May 13th, 2012 [May 13th, 2012]
- 'Food Truck Wars' heads for Monmouth Park - May 13th, 2012 [May 13th, 2012]
- Obama to talk mortgages in Reno, Romney heads to North Carolina, plus more to watch for this weekend in politics - May 13th, 2012 [May 13th, 2012]
- Losing heads while salmon fishing - May 13th, 2012 [May 13th, 2012]
- West Ottawa boys track & field wins stunning relay at OK Red meet - May 13th, 2012 [May 13th, 2012]
- Sexy Redheads - Video - May 13th, 2012 [May 13th, 2012]
- Red Sox Look to Build Momentum Against Mariners: Fan Preview - May 16th, 2012 [May 16th, 2012]
- Red-cockaded woodpecker gets care and protection in Alabama (with video and gallery) - May 16th, 2012 [May 16th, 2012]
- Beckett takes Red Sox from Fenway to Bushwood - May 16th, 2012 [May 16th, 2012]
- Greek uncertainty leaves US stocks in red - May 16th, 2012 [May 16th, 2012]
- Greece Heads Toward New Elections - May 16th, 2012 [May 16th, 2012]
- On Soccer: Red Bulls rise to top of Eastern Conference with help from trio of young American defenders - May 16th, 2012 [May 16th, 2012]
- Frankel heads Lockinge confirmations - May 16th, 2012 [May 16th, 2012]
- Kevin Spacey heads to South Africa for movie project premiere - May 16th, 2012 [May 16th, 2012]
- Red Poppy brings new voices to art scene - May 16th, 2012 [May 16th, 2012]
- Gold Heads Into The Red In 2012 - May 17th, 2012 [May 17th, 2012]
- Betty White heads to Washington to see the animals - May 17th, 2012 [May 17th, 2012]
- Outdoors: Losing your heads against fishing rules - May 17th, 2012 [May 17th, 2012]
- Betty White heads to nation's capital to see National Zoo, indulge passion for animal watching - May 17th, 2012 [May 17th, 2012]
- Canadian wave heads to Cannes Film Festival - May 17th, 2012 [May 17th, 2012]
- Pippa Middleton Wears Sexy Red Dress at Scottish Wedding - May 20th, 2012 [May 20th, 2012]
- Touchdowns for a cure - May 20th, 2012 [May 20th, 2012]
- TSX heads higher; Facebook shares rise after delayed start of trading - May 20th, 2012 [May 20th, 2012]
- Woman heads to Uganda to bring cheer to children - May 20th, 2012 [May 20th, 2012]
- World Premiere of Disney•Pixar’s “Brave” Heads to Hollywood for Grand Opening of the Dolby Theatre - May 20th, 2012 [May 20th, 2012]
- Toronto stock market heads higher amid cautious buying at end of bruising week - May 20th, 2012 [May 20th, 2012]
- Red Bluff brings home 11th section title; McColpin throws shutout vs. Wolves - May 20th, 2012 [May 20th, 2012]