F1 odds, picks, preview: Max Verstappen heads to one of his best tracks for Austrian Grand Prix – The Athletic

Max Verstappen already has a sizable lead at the top of the Formula One driver standings. Now he heads to a race that he has owned in recent years, a place where his team literally does own the track.

After a rough race for Verstappen last week at Silverstone, he is back as the favorite to win the Austrian Grand Prix. Ferrari snapped a six-race win streak for Red Bull, but both championships remain in the hands of Verstappen and Red Bull. Verstappen is -400 to win the championship on BetMGM, while Red Bull is -500. Safe to say, both remain significant favorites despite his seventh-place finish in England.

This weekends schedule features the return of the sprint race. Austria was not one of the venues to host a sprint race last year. Interlagos in Brazil, the penultimate grand Prix this season, will host the third and final sprint race of 2022.

Red Bull Ring

Spielberg, Austria, has been host to F1 races in its current configuration since 1997. Red Bull bought the circuit in 2011 and renamed it.

Verstappen has four wins in the past six races held at the Red Bull Ring, including two dominant wins last season. The high altitude seemed to help the Red Bull car last year. The thin air and potential for high temperatures can make it a taxing track for cars.

This circuit has been a familiar staple in the past two seasons as it hosted doubleheaders in 2020 and 2021 while F1 scrambled to find host tracks during the pandemic.

Its one of the shorter circuits on the F1 calendar at just under 2.7 miles (4.3 km). Its also one of the wonkier qualifying tracks, which is why the addition of the sprint race makes sense. Getting a tow from the car in front can be very powerful, which leads to traffic jams and jockeying for position as no one wants to complete a qualifying lap without the tow. That may still be an issue, but it will be Fridays problem and not be the sole factor in determining the starting order for the race.

Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

181

Sergio Perez (Red Bull)

147

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

138

Carlos Sainz Jr. (Ferrari)

127

George Russell (Mercedes)

111

Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

93

Lando Norris (McLaren)

58

Valtteri Bottas (Alfa Romeo)

46

Esteban Ocon (Alpine)

39

Fernando Alonso (Alpine)

28

All the main contenders gained some ground on Verstappen at Silverstone, but his lead is still solid. Lower down the top 10, Fernando Alonso has now scored points in five straight races. Only Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton have longer active point streaks.

Formula One constructor standings

Red Bull

328

Ferrari

265

Mercedes

204

McLaren

73

Alpine

67

Alfa Romeo

51

AlphaTauri

27

Haas

20

Aston Martin

18

Williams

3

Ferrari chipped away at Red Bulls massive lead for the second straight race, but its still a 63-point lead for Red Bull. Things would have to change drastically for this to be a competitive championship soon.

Mercedes has six podiums in 10 races, including third-place finishes in the last three grand Prix. Mercedes also has 18 points out of 20 starts, most of the 10 teams in the field. However, the German team doesnt have a top-two finish yet.

Max Verstappen

-125

Charles Leclerc

+250

Sergio Perez

+900

Carlos Sainz Jr.

+900

Lewis Hamilton

+1000

George Russell

+1600

Lando Norris

+10000

Fernando Alonso

+10000

After winning in England, Sainz is now level with Sergio Perez in the odds for Austria. Lewis Hamilton is 10-to-1 for the second straight week, showing confidence in Mercedes improvement compared to earlier in the season.

Charles Leclerc is a co-favorite with Verstappen to take pole position (both +125), but Verstappen is a solid favorite to win the race. Unless something shifts in performance, this will likely be the case for the foreseeable future. Leclerc has six pole positions to Verstappens two, and Ferrari has seven poles to Red Bulls three.

Jordan BianchiandJeff Gluck, motorsports reporters forThe Athletic, have more on the Austrian Grand Prix with predictions and some discussion about the state of the F1 season.

Max Verstappen has won four of the last six races in Austria. If he doesnt win this weekend, does it open the window for someone to come back in the championship?

Gluck: Regardless of whatever happens this weekend, it feels like Verstappen has about an 80 percent chance of winning the title. Im completely making up that number, but the point is it feels highly likely given his speed, championship experience and the drivers hes going up against. Id say theres a 10 percent chance of Verstappen being bested by Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez (which would take a combination of Perezs consistency and some disastrous finishes by Verstappen) and a 10 percent chance of Charles Leclerc overcoming his bad breaks and Ferraris questionable decisions to reel off a bunch of wins suddenly. But this is still Verstappens championship to lose as the halfway point approaches.

Bianchi: Regardless of where Verstappen finishes in Austria, the championship is his to lose. His performance and Red Bulls reliability would need to plummet for him not to take the championship for a second consecutive year. Sure, this could potentially happen. However, the percentage is so low it feels almost inconceivable that it could materialize.

Was Carlos Sainzs win a sign of things to come for him or just a random one-off he was able to take advantage of?

Gluck: A lot of things had to happen for Sainz to win, including Verstappen running over debris that got lodged underneath his car and a poorly timed safety car for Leclerc (combined with Ferraris decision to pit Sainz instead of the race leader). But on a typical weekend, Sainz should head into each race with the fourth-best chance to win behind Verstappen, Leclerc and Perez.

Bianchi: Sainz has been close to winning before, so its hard to think this was some kind of fluke, especially considering he drives for Ferrari and the teams speed this year. But we also must acknowledge that a lot had to fall in Sainzs favor to get that win, including Ferrari again hurting Leclercs chances by employing questionable pit strategy. (Yes, very shocking.) Few would be surprised if Sainz wins again this season, but that hes also not as consistently strong as his teammate or both Red Bull drivers means he likely again need some help.

Were almost halfway through the season, and Red Bull (7) and Ferrari (3) have combined to win every race. Will another team get even one win this season?

Gluck: Even in a season that was dominated by Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton last year, you still saw the sort of out-of-nowhere victories by Esteban Ocon (Alpine) and Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren). All it takes is some crazy wreck among the leaders or an oddly-timed safety car to shake things up. I dont think the whole season will go by without someone else winning, especially given Mercedes recent progress in solving their bouncing issues.

Bianchi: During some race, something will happen that opens the door for an unexpected winner to emerge. Where that happens and whos the benefactor is anyones guess. Maybe Lando Norris catches a lucky break, or Fernando Alonso turns the speed hes flashed in qualifying into sustained speed during a race? Or perhaps Mercedes continues to make performance gains, allowing Lewis Hamilton and/or George Russell to break the Red Bull-Ferrari stranglehold.

Picks for the Austrian Grand Prix

Gluck: Austria is as close to a short track as F1 gets, with lap times barely over one minute (and only 10 corners, the fewest on the circuit). That seems to suit Verstappen, who already has an all-time best four victories at the Red Bull Ring, and its pretty hard to pick against him for No. 5 (despite Leclerc being a co-favorite in the odds). Verstappen might not get a pole, but hell probably win another race at Red Bulls home track.

Bianchi: The appropriately named Red Bull Ring is Verstappens best track, having finished on the podium six times in the past eight races, a stretch that includes scoring a circuit-best four wins. A replay of what he twice did last year on this track seems likely on Sunday, where Verstappen wins the pole and then goes flag-to-flag in the race. He wins the grand prix in a route.

Friday

Practice 1 7:30 a.m. ET/12:30 p.m. GMT

Qualifying 11 a.m. ET/4 p.m. GMT

Saturday

Practice 2 6:30 a.m. ET/11:30 a.m. GMT

Sprint 10:30 a.m. ET/3:30 p.m. GMT

Sunday

Race 9 a.m. ET/2 p.m. GMT

(Top photo: David Kirouac-USA Today)

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F1 odds, picks, preview: Max Verstappen heads to one of his best tracks for Austrian Grand Prix - The Athletic

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