The claim sounds reasonable: An Austin medical school would alleviate a looming shortage of doctors.

It assumes there is a local physician shortage to cure and that a medical school would attract the kinds of doctors needed to remedy it. Those assumptions are among the most hotly disputed as balloting for a proposed property tax increase goes down to the wire.

Supporters cite a study predicting a shortage of 770 doctors in the area by 2016. They say a University of Texas medical school would add doctors and improve access to care for the entire community, not just the needy who would receive health care services from a medical school faculty, its students and doctors-in-training, or residents.

Opponents of the tax to support the medical school challenge those numbers. They say the study trumps up a doctor shortage by sweeping in 10 counties surrounding Travis some with serious physician deficits while Travis County has the third-highest number of doctors in the state.

People want to live in this area, and I dont think you need a medical school for people to practice here, said Dr. Jeffrey Hall, a local plastic surgeon.

Whos right?

The numbers

The often-cited physician workforce study was paid for by Seton, which would own and operate the teaching hospital for the medical school. It was conducted in November by the Chicago-based consulting firm Navigant and covered an 11-county region Travis, Williamson, Hays, Lee, Bastrop, Caldwell, Fayette, Burnet, Blanco, Llano and Gonzales.

Its conclusion: The overall supply of doctors is relatively healthy but wont be for long. While there is an oversupply of certain specialists including obstetricians, cardiologists, and general, orthopedic and plastic surgeons there are shortages in primary care and various specialties: gastroenterology, rheumatology, infectious disease medicine, and pulmonary and critical care. Those shortages will worsen as doctors retire and the population grows and ages, the consultants said.

Basing their projections on the assumption that doctors retire at 65, the consultants said the region is short 49 primary care doctors, a deficit that will grow to 362 by 2016. The region would need 347 more surgeons and specialists by 2016, not counting shortages in pediatrics, psychiatry and other fields.

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Would a medical school provide more of the doctors Travis County needs most?