The nation is likely to be short of physicians until 2067 even if the government increases the annual quota of medical school admissions by 1,500 from 2021, a study showed.
The study assumed that the current supply and demand of physicians remain at a desirable level. The university entrance quota is now set at 3,058 students for medical schools.
Professor Hong Yun-chul of Seoul National University College of Medicine released the Research on the Optimal Level of Physicians Manpower at a round-table meeting, which celebrates the 28th anniversary of The Korean Doctors Weekly on Friday. The meeting was broadcast live on a YouTube channel K-Healthlog, operated by The Korean Doctors Weekly.
Hong led the study, which was commissioned by the Korean Hospital Association.
According to government statistics, Korea had 2.3 clinicians per 1,000 people as of 2017, which was the lowest among OECD members. The OECD average is 3.4 clinicians per 1,000 people.
On the other hand, a Korean patient went to see doctors 16.6 times a year, which was the most among OECD members. The average number of hospitalization was 18.5 days in Korea, the second-longest in OECD.
Korean doctors amount of labor is 3.37 times larger than the OECD average, according to Hong.
Hong predicted the number of outpatients and hospitalizations based on Statistics Korea's population data. He forecasted that the demand for outpatient care would peak in 2043, which will be 1.24 times higher than the current level. The demand for hospitalization is expected to peak in 2059, which will be 2.56 times larger than it is today.
Assuming that the supply and demand of physicians in 2018 were appropriate and increasing the quota for medical school admissions from 2021 will fail to prevent a shortage of doctors until 2067, the study showed.
If doctors retirement age is assumed to be 70 years old and the medical school admission quota is maintained at 3,058, the nation will be short of 55,260 doctors, Hong went on to say.
Even if the government expands the university quota by 1,500 from 2021, Korea will be short of up to 27,755 doctors in 2048.
Pushing up the retirement age at 75 years old and assuming the elderly doctors aged 65 or more have 50 percent productivity, an increase of medical university quota by 1,000 will still fail to prevent a shortage of physicians until 2067. Hong went on to say.
Hong emphasized that the country needs to address the imbalance of physician supplies among regions rather than the shortage of overall doctors.
In 2045, the total number of physicians will fall short of the demand, but those in Seoul will be in oversupply, he said.
In 2020, 15 percent of the total population will be aged 65 or more. In 2030, the proportion goes up to 25 percent, Hong said. This means not only the elderly population but their diseases will increase. It is highly likely that the medical demand will surge.
However, it is still controversial whether Korea is short of doctors because the nation is suffering from a severe imbalance of physician supply among regions, Hong noted.
Without addressing the regional imbalance, it is difficult to relieve the shortage of physicians, he added.
< Korea Biomedical Review, All rights reserved.>
Read more:
- "Shift Happens" - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Getting Started With Your Personal Statement - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- I started this blog 1 year ago. I'm ready to become a medical doctor. - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Poll Results: "What is your GPA?" - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why Ross University School of Medicine? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why Ross University? (Continued) - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Filling out applications with the last 4 years in mind. - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- "Active and Passive Euthanasia" - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 300 Word Personal Statement - First Draft - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 300 Word Personal Statement - 2nd Draft - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- "Where did you do EMT training at?" - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- "is this jonathan that went to brazil in the summer of 2006?" - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- First Application is Away - Ross University - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- AMCAS—The American Medical College Application Service - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Student Doctor Network - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Crime Incident - Public Safety Announcement: STUDENTS - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- AMCAS Deadlines & Delays - Answered - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Headstart on Secondary Applications - The Student Doctor Network - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Complete Medical School & Admissions Guide - Revisited - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Interview Status - Ross University - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Finished my first interview. - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- "You have a 95% chance of acceptance..." - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- "I was just wondering if I have to go to medical school i will have to start college allover again." - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Interview Feedback - Allopathic Medical Schools - Ross University School of Medicine (Dominica Caribbean) - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- ACCEPTED! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Step 1 Revisited - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Few More Thoughts On Moving - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Update - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Closing In - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Internet/Computer Hell - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Back On The Net - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 1 More Day - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Loan Deferment Blog - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Graduated! - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- What Happened? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Interesting Case - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- What Made Me Stupid? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Blah. - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Call - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Medicine in the Media - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Was Medical School Worth It? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Off I Go... - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Is It Worth It, Part 2 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Oriented - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- GLBT in Medical School - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- GLBT in Residency Applications - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- I Survived - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Reflections on the First Week - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- All Good Things Must End - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Lone Coyote is Back - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Pre-med student switches gears to teach in Chicago school - Chicago Tribune - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- Old-school barbecue coming to spot near Fort Worth medical district - Fort Worth Star Telegram - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- Nursing home drug use puts many at risk - Boston Globe - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- Dr. Anita Figueredo, first female surgeon in San Diego, dies at 93 - Los Angeles Times - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- Stimulus funds pay for monkey research in NC - MiamiHerald.com - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- Medicine as an economic engine - Buffalo News - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- UM medical school feels the squeeze - MiamiHerald.com - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL ADVISER Bell's palsy not as serious as it appears - Detroit Free Press - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- Baylor medical school works to get back on track - Houston Chronicle - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- From community college to Amherst College and Yale Medical School - WalletPop (blog) - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- Man questions merit of coke monkey study - UPI.com - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- School Board has questions it wants answered about onsite medical clinic - Terre Haute Tribune Star - March 9th, 2010 [March 9th, 2010]
- Stimulus Funds Pay for Monkey Research - NewsMax.com - March 9th, 2010 [March 9th, 2010]
- Babylon schools head: Teen's collapse unrelated to athletics - Newsday (subscription) - March 9th, 2010 [March 9th, 2010]
- Cost Of Medical School Rises In Recession - NPR - March 9th, 2010 [March 9th, 2010]
- Flu Shots in Children Help People of All Ages - New York Times - March 9th, 2010 [March 9th, 2010]
- A prescription for improving science education - Scope (blog) - March 9th, 2010 [March 9th, 2010]
- Live kidney donors do not die sooner: study - Reuters - March 9th, 2010 [March 9th, 2010]
- UW football player suspended after alleged assault - Seattle Post Intelligencer - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- More Comparative Studies Needed to Guide Physicians Study finds less than a ... - ModernMedicine - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- Conservationists worry about Mo. med school plan - KOAM-TV - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- Dr. William D. Lynn - Baltimore Sun - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- Suspect in North Dallas shootings became reclusive after parents died, family says - Dallas Morning News - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- Drinkers Gain Less Weight - Harvard Crimson - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- Long-Term Health Risks Low for Kidney Donors - WebMD - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- School resource officer remains in critical condition - Middletown Journal - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- New Lucian Leape Institute Report Finds That U.S. Medical Schools Are Falling ... - PR Newswire (press release) - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- Dual degrees program expands for Mayo Medical School students - Post-Bulletin - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- Comparative Effectiveness Research is a Must - TopNews United States - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]
- Long Beach OKs medical pot ordinance - Contra Costa Times - March 10th, 2010 [March 10th, 2010]