Medical School Enrollment Outpacing Available Residency Slots

New survey results released by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) show that enrollment at U.S. medical schools and schools of osteopathic medicine continues to increase at a steady pace. However, the same survey highlights increasing concern from the nation's medical school deans about insufficient numbers of residency training positions being available to meet matriculating students' graduate medical education needs.

Specifically, first-year medical school enrollment is projected to reach 21,434 by the 2017-18 school year, which is a 30 percent increase compared to 2002 enrollment numbers. The report projects an even sharper increase in osteopathic medical school enrollment; first-year enrollment is expected to reach 6,675 in 2017, which represents a 125 percent increase since 2002. Combined first-year M.D. and D.O. medical school enrollment likely will reach 28,109 by 2017 compared to 19,456 in 2002.

"Increasing enrollments show that medical schools are doing their part to avert the shortage of more than 90,000 primary care specialty doctors this nation faces by 2020," says Kirch. "However, this will not result in a single new practicing physician unless Congress acts now to lift the cap on residency training positions."

The AAMC points out there were more U.S. seniors seeking residency positions in the recent 2013 National Residency Matching Program than there were residency spots available. The same situation occurred in 2010.

Indeed, survey results show that 76 percent of schools already have instituted, or are planning to institute, at least one primary care initiative to increase student interest in primary care specialties. These efforts include refined admissions criteria, changes in curriculum and extracurricular opportunities, expanded primary care faculty resources and training, and implementation of financial incentives, such as tuition or debt reduction.

In its 2010 survey, the AAMC asked schools for the first time about plans to stir student interest in primary care. At that time, 46 schools said they planned to establish initiatives within two years. However, 2012 survey results show that only about one-third of those schools met that goal.

Still, the survey authors express optimism that interest in creating primary care initiatives is ongoing. "While comparison of past survey results with those of this year show that plans to implement such initiatives do not necessarily come to fruition within a two-year window, 38 percent of schools have plans for the next two years," say the authors.

The 2012 survey also indicates that of the 4,946 new positions projected by 2017, 55 percent are expected to come from public schools and 45 percent from private schools. In addition,

Medical schools also indicated growing concerns about clinical training opportunities for students. For example,

Lastly, of the projected growth in medical school enrollment between 2002 and 2017, the survey found 62 percent will occur in the 125 medical schools that were accredited as of 2002. Another 31 percent will occur in schools accredited since 2002, and 7 percent will come from schools that currently are applicant or candidate schools with the Liaison Committee on Medical Education.