Every now and then, an obscure concept is so brilliantly encapsulated in a compact yet sublime term that it leaves the audience inspired enough to evangelize it.
I have felt that way ever since I heard the words 'Actuarial Escape Velocity'.
For some background, please refer to an older article from early 2006, 'Are You Prepared to Live to 100?". Notice the historical uptrend in human life expectancy, and the accelerating rate of increases. For more, do also read the article "Are You Acceleration Aware?".
In analyzing the rate at which life expectancy is increasing in the wealthiest nations, we see that US life expectancy is now increasing by 0.2 years, every year. Notably, the death rates from heart disease and cancer have been dropping by a rapid 2-4% each year, and these two leading causes of death are quickly falling off, despite rising obesity and a worsening American diet over the same period. Just a few decades ago, the rate on increase in life expectancy was slower than 0.2 years per year. In the 19th century, even the wealthiest societies were adding well under 0.1 years per year. But how quickly can the rate of increase continue to rise, and does it eventually saturate as each unit of gain becomes increasingly harder to achieve?
Two of the leading thinkers in the field of life extension, Ray Kurzweil and Aubrey de Grey, believe that by the 2020s, human life expectancy will increase by more than one year every year (in 2002 Kurzweil predicted that this would happen as soon as 2013, but this is just another example of him consistently overestimating the rate of change). This means that death will approach the average person at a slower rate than the rate of technology-driven lifespan increases. It does not mean all death suddenly stops, but it does mean than those who are not close to death do have a possibility of indefinite lifespan after AEV is reached. David Gobel, founder of the Methuselah Foundation, has termed this as Actuarial Escape Velocity (AEV), essentially comparing the rate of lifespan extension to the speed at which a spacecraft can surpass the gravitiational pull of the planet it launches from, breaking free of the gravitational force. Thus, life expectancy is currently, as of 2007 data, rising at 20% of Actuarial Escape Velocity.
I remain unconvinced that such improvements will be reached as soon as Ray Kurzeil and Aubrey de Grey predict. I will be convinced after we clearly achieve 50% of AEV in developed countries, where six months are added to life expectancy every year. It is possible that the interval between 50% and 100% of AEV comprises less than a decade, but I'll re-evaluate my assumptions when 50% is achieved.
Serious research efforts are underway. The Methuselah Mouse Prize will award a large grant to researchers that can demonstrate substantial increases in the lifespan of a mouse (more from The Economist). Once credible gains can be demonstrated, funding for the research will increase by orders of magnitude.
The enormous market demand for lifespan extension technologies is not in dispute. There are currently 95,000 individuals in the world with a net worth greater than $30 million, including 1125 billionaires. Accelerating Economic Growth is already growing the ranks of the ultrawealthy at a scorching pace. If only some percentage of these individuals are willing to pay a large portion of their wealth in order to receive a decade or two more of healthy life, particularly since money can be earned back in the new lease on life, then such treatment already has a market opportunity in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The reduction in the economic costs of disease, funerals, etc. are an added bonus. Market demand, however, cannot always supercede the will of nature.
This is only the second article on life extension that I have written on The Futurist, out of 154 total articles written to date. While I certainly think aging will be slowed down to the extent that many of us will surpass the century mark, it will take much more for me to join the ranks of those who believe aging can be truly reversed. To track progress in this field, keep one eye on the rate of decline in cancer and heart disease deaths, and another eye on the Methuselah Mouse Prize. That such metrics are even advancing on a yearly basis is already remarkable, but monitoring anything more than these two measures, at this time, would be premature.
So let's find out what the group prediction is, with a poll. Keep in mind that most people are biased towards believing this date will fall within their own lifetimes :
When will Actuarial Escape Velocity be achieved for wealthy individuals? | |
2010-2020 | |
2020-2030 | |
2030-2040 | |
2040-2050 | |
2050 or later, if ever | |
Free polls from Pollhost.com |
- The G-Bound RC Car Drives On Water [Rc] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Nanoparticles Can Rip Your DNA Apart Without Ever Touching It [Nanoparticles] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- My Favorite Top 10 List Today: The Dumbest Evil Geniuses Of All Time [Evil Geniuses] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 5,000 Volts Is More Than Enough Power To Crush a Soda Can [DIY] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Computers Are Scary, But Steve Allen Is Here to Help [Retromodo] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Pangolin Backpack [Bags] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- New For iPhone: 2 Balls 1 Cup [IPhone Apps] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Office Building Or Home To A Super Heroine? [Architecture] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- This Inflating Bra Commercial Left Me Confused Yet Reaching For My Wallet [Nsfw] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 10 Terrible Tips for Longer Battery Life [Humor] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Dealzmodo: $100 Xbox 360 at Amazon, More Electronics Deals All Day Long [Dealzmodo] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Gigabyte BIOS Update Fixes iPhone Syncing Issues [IPhone] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Hello Facebook User, I'm a Nigerian Prince in Need of Assistance... [Facebook] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Zune HD Update 4.3: Speedier Browser, Predictive Text and More [Zune Hd] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 8-Bit Wedding Invitation Acknowledges the Marital Bickering to Come [8-Bit Wedding] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- The iPhone Nano Rumor Strikes Again: Coming to Verizon in 2010? [Rumor] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Building a NAS? Skip the Performance Drives [Nas] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Microsoft COFEE, Some of the Most Illegal Software You Can Pirate [Hacking] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Robot Cow Rectum: For Educational, not Recreational, Purposes [Robots] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Watch Jonathan Ive's Segment in Objectified [Apple] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- BlueBeat’s Innovative Defense That Will Never Hold Up in Court [Music] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Nokia Booklet 3G Landing November 15 at Best Buy [Nokia] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Latest Snow Leopard Developer Build Breaks Hackintosh Support... Again [Hackintosh] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- The Cité du Design Certainly Lives Up to Its Name [Architecture] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 64% of Men Don’t RTFM Before Calling Tech Support [Tech Support] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- MIT Media Lab: Electronic Wallpaper, Conductive Threads and More [Fashion] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Famous Paintings Reproduced In Coffee [Art] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How Far Can 'Medical Tourism' Go? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Rebuttal to 'Peak Oil' Doomsday Predictions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Reverend Jeremiah White,...I mean, Wright - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Energy vs. Financials, A Divergence of Historical Extremes - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- US Ideological Distribution, 2008 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Ten Biotechnology Breakthroughs Soon to be Available - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Nanohealing Material Heads to Market - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Solar Revolution is Near - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why the US Will Still be the Only Superpower in 2030, v2.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Culture of Happiness - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Surfaces : The Next Killer Ap in Computing - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- More on the Economics of Medical Tourism - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Ten Myths in America - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Can Buildings be 'Printed'? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Pre-Singularity Abundance Milestones - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Futurist's Stock Portfolio for 2009 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Future Timeline for Economics - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A History of Stock Market Bottoms - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Few Electoral Statistics - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- It's Official : The Recession Began in December 2007 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How We Decisively WON in Iraq in 2008 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 2008 Technology Breakthrough Roundup - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Futurist's Stock Portfolio for 2008 - RESULTS - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why Government is Set to Extinguish Silicon Valley - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Solar Power's Next 5 Game-Changing Technologies - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The End of Rabbit Ears, a Billion more Broadband Users - Part II - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Guantanamo Meets Geneva Convention Rules - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Nanotechnology : Bubble, Bust, ....Boom? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Form of Economic Recovery - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Impact of Computing : 78% More per Year, v2.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Wolfram Alpha : The Birth of Web 3.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Energy vs. Financials, RESULTS - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- SETI and the Singularity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Eight Ways to Supercharge the US Economy - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Big Thing in Entertainment, A Half-Time Update - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Video Conferencing : A Cascade of Disruptions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Timing the Singularity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Mobile Broadband Surge : A Prediction Follow Up - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Two US Recessions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Google Promotes Droid Day With Rare Homepage Ad [Google] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Microsoft Confirms Improved Xbox 360 Warranty Seal [Blockquote] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- OpenOfficeMouse Is An 18 Button Freak, But I Want It [Mouse] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 10 Classic Analog Games Defiled By Digital [Tgif] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Wire Your House With Ethernet Cable For Better Home Networking [DIY] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Room Eavesdropping Device Is Way Better Than a Drinking Glass [Surveillance] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Steve Jobs and Sarah Jessica Parker Sittin' In A Courthouse B-E-I-N-G S-U-E-D [Lawsuits] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Folding Titanium Spork Is the Ultimate Portable Eating Utensil [Spork] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Queen of Google: "I Do Code All Night!" [Google] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- This Week's Best iPhone Apps [IPhone Apps] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- DIY Star Trek Bluetooth Communicator Almost Makes Regular Bluetooth Headsets Look Stylish [DIY] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Intel Swears That It's Gonna Stop Its Firmware From Bricking Any More SSDs [Intel] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- H20 Audio's Waterproof iPod Nano Case Is Built for Surfer-Videographers [Accessories] - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]
- Earn Pizza and Fame by Sharing Your Holiday Horror Stories [Contest] - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]