Editor's Note: In 1995, IndustryWeek asked 25 of the leading CEOs, management gurus and futurists what they saw coming for their companies, their jobs and their life between 1995 and 2020. While we are still five years away from 2020, we nevertheless are going to revisit those reflections, opinions and predictions in the coming weeks and months and see how well are they holding up. The first of the 25 trail blazers into the future (presented in alphabetical order) is:
Joel A. Barker, Futurist
In the last 25 years, managers -- and management philosophy -- have come to understand that there are multiple modes of change. One is what I call "paradigm enhancement," which the total-quality, continuous-improvement message has been all about.
The other is radical change -- or paradigm-shift change -- which is unlike any other kind of change that you must deal with as a manager.
... I think the challenge for management in the future is to substantially improve its ability to anticipate change. And there are two aspects of that:
One is to be able to spot a paradigm shift in its early formation -- because there is usually a five- to 10-year developmental life before it hits you between the eyes. Manager-leaders must also learn how to monitor what is happening outside the boundaries of their business, because often that is where radical change originates.
The typical manager reads inside his profession; but that's not where you find the future. My rule is to get into areas that you're unfamiliar with and look around and see what is going on. When I work with corporations, I set up teams of 50 people, having each person read five different magazines. So yon have 250 periodicals covered every month -- and they are all reading outside the boundaries.
The second thing is to understand the long-term implications of a new change when you find it. There are first-, second-, and third-order implications, which may be either positive or negative, and you have to discuss them in a patterned way.
If you don't take the time to think about the long-term implications, you will be seduced by the short term.
... The ability to understand the long-term positive and negative implications of potential decisions, before they are made, is the new frontier. And the responsibility we have for doing that is growing every day, because our information technology is so much more powerful than it was 20 or 30 years ago.
See original here:
A Look Back: Futurist Joel Barker on the Challenge of Change
- The G-Bound RC Car Drives On Water [Rc] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Nanoparticles Can Rip Your DNA Apart Without Ever Touching It [Nanoparticles] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- My Favorite Top 10 List Today: The Dumbest Evil Geniuses Of All Time [Evil Geniuses] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 5,000 Volts Is More Than Enough Power To Crush a Soda Can [DIY] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Computers Are Scary, But Steve Allen Is Here to Help [Retromodo] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Pangolin Backpack [Bags] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- New For iPhone: 2 Balls 1 Cup [IPhone Apps] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Office Building Or Home To A Super Heroine? [Architecture] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- This Inflating Bra Commercial Left Me Confused Yet Reaching For My Wallet [Nsfw] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 10 Terrible Tips for Longer Battery Life [Humor] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Dealzmodo: $100 Xbox 360 at Amazon, More Electronics Deals All Day Long [Dealzmodo] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Gigabyte BIOS Update Fixes iPhone Syncing Issues [IPhone] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Hello Facebook User, I'm a Nigerian Prince in Need of Assistance... [Facebook] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Zune HD Update 4.3: Speedier Browser, Predictive Text and More [Zune Hd] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 8-Bit Wedding Invitation Acknowledges the Marital Bickering to Come [8-Bit Wedding] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- The iPhone Nano Rumor Strikes Again: Coming to Verizon in 2010? [Rumor] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Building a NAS? Skip the Performance Drives [Nas] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Microsoft COFEE, Some of the Most Illegal Software You Can Pirate [Hacking] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Robot Cow Rectum: For Educational, not Recreational, Purposes [Robots] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Watch Jonathan Ive's Segment in Objectified [Apple] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- BlueBeat’s Innovative Defense That Will Never Hold Up in Court [Music] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Nokia Booklet 3G Landing November 15 at Best Buy [Nokia] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Latest Snow Leopard Developer Build Breaks Hackintosh Support... Again [Hackintosh] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- The Cité du Design Certainly Lives Up to Its Name [Architecture] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 64% of Men Don’t RTFM Before Calling Tech Support [Tech Support] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- MIT Media Lab: Electronic Wallpaper, Conductive Threads and More [Fashion] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Famous Paintings Reproduced In Coffee [Art] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How Far Can 'Medical Tourism' Go? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Actuarial Escape Velocity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Rebuttal to 'Peak Oil' Doomsday Predictions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Reverend Jeremiah White,...I mean, Wright - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Energy vs. Financials, A Divergence of Historical Extremes - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- US Ideological Distribution, 2008 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Ten Biotechnology Breakthroughs Soon to be Available - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Nanohealing Material Heads to Market - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Solar Revolution is Near - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why the US Will Still be the Only Superpower in 2030, v2.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Culture of Happiness - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Surfaces : The Next Killer Ap in Computing - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- More on the Economics of Medical Tourism - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Ten Myths in America - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Can Buildings be 'Printed'? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Pre-Singularity Abundance Milestones - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Futurist's Stock Portfolio for 2009 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Future Timeline for Economics - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A History of Stock Market Bottoms - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Few Electoral Statistics - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- It's Official : The Recession Began in December 2007 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How We Decisively WON in Iraq in 2008 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 2008 Technology Breakthrough Roundup - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Futurist's Stock Portfolio for 2008 - RESULTS - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why Government is Set to Extinguish Silicon Valley - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Solar Power's Next 5 Game-Changing Technologies - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The End of Rabbit Ears, a Billion more Broadband Users - Part II - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Guantanamo Meets Geneva Convention Rules - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Nanotechnology : Bubble, Bust, ....Boom? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Form of Economic Recovery - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Impact of Computing : 78% More per Year, v2.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Wolfram Alpha : The Birth of Web 3.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Energy vs. Financials, RESULTS - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- SETI and the Singularity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Eight Ways to Supercharge the US Economy - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Big Thing in Entertainment, A Half-Time Update - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Video Conferencing : A Cascade of Disruptions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Timing the Singularity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Mobile Broadband Surge : A Prediction Follow Up - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Two US Recessions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Google Promotes Droid Day With Rare Homepage Ad [Google] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Microsoft Confirms Improved Xbox 360 Warranty Seal [Blockquote] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- OpenOfficeMouse Is An 18 Button Freak, But I Want It [Mouse] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 10 Classic Analog Games Defiled By Digital [Tgif] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Wire Your House With Ethernet Cable For Better Home Networking [DIY] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Room Eavesdropping Device Is Way Better Than a Drinking Glass [Surveillance] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Steve Jobs and Sarah Jessica Parker Sittin' In A Courthouse B-E-I-N-G S-U-E-D [Lawsuits] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Folding Titanium Spork Is the Ultimate Portable Eating Utensil [Spork] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Queen of Google: "I Do Code All Night!" [Google] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- This Week's Best iPhone Apps [IPhone Apps] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- DIY Star Trek Bluetooth Communicator Almost Makes Regular Bluetooth Headsets Look Stylish [DIY] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Intel Swears That It's Gonna Stop Its Firmware From Bricking Any More SSDs [Intel] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- H20 Audio's Waterproof iPod Nano Case Is Built for Surfer-Videographers [Accessories] - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]