Humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in all of human history.
By 2030 the average person in the U.S. will have 4.5 packages a week delivered with flying drones. They will travel 40% of the time in a driverless car, use a 3D printer to print hyper-individualized meals, and will spend most of their leisure time on an activity that hasnt been invented yet.
The world will have seen over 2 billion jobs disappear, with most coming back in different forms in different industries, with over 50% structured as freelance projects rather than full-time jobs.
Over 50% of todays Fortune 500 companies will have disappeared, over 50% of traditional colleges will have collapsed, and India will have overtaken China as the most populous country in the world.
Most people will have stopped taking pills in favor of a new device that causes the body to manufacture its own cures.
Space colonies, personal privacy, and flying cars will all be hot topics of discussion, but not a reality yet.
Most of todays top causes, including climate change, gay liberation, and abortion, will all be relegated to little more than footnotes in Wikipedia, and Wikipedia itself will have lost the encyclopedia wars to an upstart company all because Jimmy Wales was taken hostage and beheaded by warring factions in the Middle East over a controversial entry belittling micro religions.
Our ability to predict the future is an inexact science. The most accurate predictions generally come from well-informed industry insiders about very near term events.
Much like predicting the weather, the farther we move into the future, the less accurate our predictions become.
So why do we make them?
In the segments below, Ill make a series of 33 provocative predictions about 2030, and how different life will be just 17 years in the future.
I will also explain why predictions are important, even when they are wrong.
Why Understanding the Future is Important
Ignorance is a valuable part of the future. If we knew the future we would have little reason to vote in an election, host a surprise party, or start something new.
Once a future is known, we quickly lose interest in trying to influence it. For this reason, our greatest motivations in life come from NOT knowing the future.
So why, as a futurist, do I spend so much time thinking about the future?
Very simply, since no one has a totally clear vision of what lies ahead, we are all left with degrees of accuracy. Anyone with a higher degree of accuracy, even by only a few percentage points, can achieve a significant competitive advantage.
The Power of Prediction
If I make the prediction that By 2030 over 90% of all crimes will be solved through video and other forms of surveillance, a forecast like that causes several things to happen.
First, you have to decide if you agree that a certain percent of crimes will be solved that way. If so, it forces you to think about how fast the surveillance industry is growing, how invasive this might be, and whether privacy concerns might start to shift current trends in the other direction.
More importantly, it forces you to consider the bigger picture, and whether this is a desirable future. If it reaches 90%, how many police, judges, and lawyers will be out of a job as a result of this? Will this create a fairer justice system, a safer society, or a far scarier place to live?
Please keep this in mind as we step through the following predictions.
33 Dramatic Predictions
Final Thoughts
Reading through the prediction above you will likely have experiences a number of thoughts ranging from agreement, to amusement, to confusion, to total disagreement.
As with most predictions, some will be correct and others not. But the true value in this list will come from giving serious consideration to each of them and deriving your own conclusions.
If you were expecting me to aggressively defend all these predictions, then this column will certainly disappoint you. It has been a lifetime journey for me to formulate my thoughts about the future, but there are far too many variables to build a defensible case for any of them.
That said, I would love to hear your thoughts. Whats missing, too aggressive, or simply misguided? Sometimes my crystal ball is far too fuzzy, so Id love to hear what ideas come to mind.
ByFuturist Thomas Frey
Author ofCommunicating with the Future the book that changes everything
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Read this article:
33 Dramatic Predictions For 2030 - Futurist Speaker
- The G-Bound RC Car Drives On Water [Rc] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Nanoparticles Can Rip Your DNA Apart Without Ever Touching It [Nanoparticles] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- My Favorite Top 10 List Today: The Dumbest Evil Geniuses Of All Time [Evil Geniuses] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 5,000 Volts Is More Than Enough Power To Crush a Soda Can [DIY] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Computers Are Scary, But Steve Allen Is Here to Help [Retromodo] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Pangolin Backpack [Bags] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- New For iPhone: 2 Balls 1 Cup [IPhone Apps] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Office Building Or Home To A Super Heroine? [Architecture] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- This Inflating Bra Commercial Left Me Confused Yet Reaching For My Wallet [Nsfw] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 10 Terrible Tips for Longer Battery Life [Humor] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Dealzmodo: $100 Xbox 360 at Amazon, More Electronics Deals All Day Long [Dealzmodo] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Gigabyte BIOS Update Fixes iPhone Syncing Issues [IPhone] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Hello Facebook User, I'm a Nigerian Prince in Need of Assistance... [Facebook] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Zune HD Update 4.3: Speedier Browser, Predictive Text and More [Zune Hd] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 8-Bit Wedding Invitation Acknowledges the Marital Bickering to Come [8-Bit Wedding] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- The iPhone Nano Rumor Strikes Again: Coming to Verizon in 2010? [Rumor] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Building a NAS? Skip the Performance Drives [Nas] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Microsoft COFEE, Some of the Most Illegal Software You Can Pirate [Hacking] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Robot Cow Rectum: For Educational, not Recreational, Purposes [Robots] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Watch Jonathan Ive's Segment in Objectified [Apple] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- BlueBeat’s Innovative Defense That Will Never Hold Up in Court [Music] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Nokia Booklet 3G Landing November 15 at Best Buy [Nokia] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Latest Snow Leopard Developer Build Breaks Hackintosh Support... Again [Hackintosh] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- The Cité du Design Certainly Lives Up to Its Name [Architecture] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 64% of Men Don’t RTFM Before Calling Tech Support [Tech Support] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- MIT Media Lab: Electronic Wallpaper, Conductive Threads and More [Fashion] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Famous Paintings Reproduced In Coffee [Art] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How Far Can 'Medical Tourism' Go? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Actuarial Escape Velocity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Rebuttal to 'Peak Oil' Doomsday Predictions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Reverend Jeremiah White,...I mean, Wright - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Energy vs. Financials, A Divergence of Historical Extremes - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- US Ideological Distribution, 2008 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Ten Biotechnology Breakthroughs Soon to be Available - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Nanohealing Material Heads to Market - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Solar Revolution is Near - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why the US Will Still be the Only Superpower in 2030, v2.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Culture of Happiness - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Surfaces : The Next Killer Ap in Computing - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- More on the Economics of Medical Tourism - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Ten Myths in America - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Can Buildings be 'Printed'? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Pre-Singularity Abundance Milestones - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Futurist's Stock Portfolio for 2009 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Future Timeline for Economics - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A History of Stock Market Bottoms - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Few Electoral Statistics - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- It's Official : The Recession Began in December 2007 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How We Decisively WON in Iraq in 2008 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 2008 Technology Breakthrough Roundup - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Futurist's Stock Portfolio for 2008 - RESULTS - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why Government is Set to Extinguish Silicon Valley - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Solar Power's Next 5 Game-Changing Technologies - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The End of Rabbit Ears, a Billion more Broadband Users - Part II - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Guantanamo Meets Geneva Convention Rules - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Nanotechnology : Bubble, Bust, ....Boom? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Form of Economic Recovery - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Impact of Computing : 78% More per Year, v2.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Wolfram Alpha : The Birth of Web 3.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Energy vs. Financials, RESULTS - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- SETI and the Singularity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Eight Ways to Supercharge the US Economy - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Big Thing in Entertainment, A Half-Time Update - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Video Conferencing : A Cascade of Disruptions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Timing the Singularity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Mobile Broadband Surge : A Prediction Follow Up - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Two US Recessions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Google Promotes Droid Day With Rare Homepage Ad [Google] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Microsoft Confirms Improved Xbox 360 Warranty Seal [Blockquote] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- OpenOfficeMouse Is An 18 Button Freak, But I Want It [Mouse] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 10 Classic Analog Games Defiled By Digital [Tgif] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Wire Your House With Ethernet Cable For Better Home Networking [DIY] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Room Eavesdropping Device Is Way Better Than a Drinking Glass [Surveillance] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Steve Jobs and Sarah Jessica Parker Sittin' In A Courthouse B-E-I-N-G S-U-E-D [Lawsuits] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Folding Titanium Spork Is the Ultimate Portable Eating Utensil [Spork] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Queen of Google: "I Do Code All Night!" [Google] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- This Week's Best iPhone Apps [IPhone Apps] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- DIY Star Trek Bluetooth Communicator Almost Makes Regular Bluetooth Headsets Look Stylish [DIY] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Intel Swears That It's Gonna Stop Its Firmware From Bricking Any More SSDs [Intel] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- H20 Audio's Waterproof iPod Nano Case Is Built for Surfer-Videographers [Accessories] - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]