Sometimes less is more. Thats a tenet of modern design, but its also a central belief of many in the decentralized cryptocurrency community. Throughout the Bitcoin (BTC) world in Twitter threads, on crypto news websites and in private Telegram and Discord channels conversation almost invariably turns to one topic: the May halving that will reduce the amount of newly minted Bitcoin by 50%. Less Bitcoin being produced may mean greater demand and higher prices, but to understand just why the community at large is thrilled we need to take a look at Bitcoins history.
Bitcoin was intended as a finite and increasingly scarce commodity. Miners need to solve block calculations to earn the right to mint the next swathe of Bitcoin. Just as a gold mine grows gradually less efficient as the veins are tapped and the lodes uncovered, Bitcoin mining also grows more difficult over time. The calculations miners must solve grow more difficult, and the rewards grow smaller. When its pseudonymous developer Satoshi Nakamoto launched the Bitcoin network in 2009, any off-the-shelf computer could mine and run a decent chance of winning the 50 BTC block reward. This has lessened over time. In 2020, the individual block reward is 12.5 BTC, and only custom-built and energy-intensive mining rigs have any chance of earning the reward. Bitcoin has halved twice before: in 2012 and in 2016. When the 2020 halving occurs, the reward for successfully mining a block will be 6.25 BTC.
The last halving in 2016 led to major increases in Bitcoins price, but not everyone is sure that the 2020 halving will inspire similar market adjustments. When the first halving took place in November 2012, Bitcoin was a lesser known asset class. Few people outside the programming, technology and cryptography worlds had ever heard of it. The May halving will be very different. While cryptocurrency may not be widely understood by the general public, its now widely acknowledged and covered by journalists and reporters the world over. The news of the halving, even if its exact significance might remain unclear to casual observers, has the potential to draw new people into the world of cryptocurrency and blockchain.
While the halving may persuade some users to take the plunge, others in the Bitcoin world may find that the new rules the 6.25 BTC reward dont suit them. Miners may see the price of Bitcoin appreciate, which is something theyre likely to welcome, but there are doubts about whether the theoretical increase in price can match the expected doubling in mining costs. In particular, for miners that run higher electricity costs and those running outdated mining equipment such as the Antminer S9, the mining break-even costs could reach as high as $7,600 to $13,000. These higher break-even costs could force a large amount of miners out of the network but may be good news and provide a larger market share for those that are able to remain.
While new miners may be faster and more efficient, driving mining firms to invest in new devices, such as mining rigs, will actually add additional costs, as new mining rigs are expensive and scarce. And that scarcity may not be intentional there are concerns that coronavirus could break the mining rig supply chain. Though new miners will eventually make their way to mining firms, a delay could lead miners to drastic decisions. Some might temporarily shut down their operations, potentially causing a decrease in the amount of hash power required to solve the mining equations. Halvings are hard enough to prepare for without the complication of a pandemic; the coronavirus may make the forthcoming event even more tumultuous than usual.
Even those in the crypto community who do not hold Bitcoin find themselves involved in debates about the effects of a halving event on price. Some maintain that the certain and inevitable knowledge of an event is priced into Bitcoins value, and that the market has already considered the drop in block rewards. This means the price already reflects the looming scarcity. Others take an opposite position: Because the cryptocurrency market is young and still maturing, there can be few hopes of forward pricing. While the argument is of theoretical interest to observers, to people and institutions with holdings its vital to take a position. Arbitrage and positioning opportunities may exist, but making the wrong prediction could prove exceedingly costly.
As Bitcoin grows ever more scarce, especially if this growing scarcity creates a price increase,security grows ever more important for people looking to hold or to transact. New users should follow the standard rules for cryptocurrency security, and they should remember that lost codes or keys mean lost currency. A wallet service could be a valuable safety mechanism for new and experienced users alike, and people who acquire larger portions of cryptocurrency may want to split their holdings between multiple wallet addresses.
The next halving will take place on May 12, the exact impact of which immediate or long-term cannot be accurately predicted, even after considering the examples of the last two halvings. What is known is that the 2020 halving will impact the Bitcoin communitys future in some shape or form. It may make things briefly harder for miners, and its liable to bring in hundreds or thousands of new crypto investors. Anyone even tangentially connected with Bitcoin should be prepared for May. Whatever comes, its going to be big, and its going to be surprising.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Ashish Singhal is the co-founder and CEO of CoinSwitch and CRUXPay. He is a hacker to the core and has won almost every major hackathon in India, including those hosted by Sequoia, Google, Amazon and LinkedIn. While working at Amazon as a software development engineer in 2014, he led the internal teambuilding Amazon Prime's one-hour delivery model. Ashish was a technical advisor with Reap Benefit, a nongovernmental organization in Bangalore aimed at encouraging Indias youth to become actionable citizens. He holds a bachelor of engineering in computer science.
Excerpt from:
The Next Bitcoin Halving: To Halve and to Hold? - Cointelegraph
- Satoshi Nakamoto Definition | Investopedia - February 6th, 2018 [February 6th, 2018]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto, Cryptocurrency's Elusive Creator ... - March 2nd, 2018 [March 2nd, 2018]
- Self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto sued for swindling $5 ... - March 2nd, 2018 [March 2nd, 2018]
- Bitcoin's Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Is Probably This ... - March 28th, 2018 [March 28th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto - Wikipedia - May 7th, 2018 [May 7th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Known to CIA? FBI? Created by NSA? Search ... - August 21st, 2018 [August 21st, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoins enigmatic creator - Brain scan - September 6th, 2018 [September 6th, 2018]
- Bootstrapped Gavin: Satoshi Nakamotos identity revealed ... - September 6th, 2018 [September 6th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto was interested in joining Trons Atlas ... - September 14th, 2018 [September 14th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Revealed Says UK Nonprofit Stylometry ... - October 9th, 2018 [October 9th, 2018]
- 2018 Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? Psychic Insights Michelle ... - October 28th, 2018 [October 28th, 2018]
- How bitcoin has failed to achieve Satoshi Nakamotos ... - November 6th, 2018 [November 6th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Introduced Bitcoin 10 Years Ago ... - November 6th, 2018 [November 6th, 2018]
- Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? - bitcoinplay.net - December 14th, 2018 [December 14th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Finally Revealed! A Back-Of-The-Envelope ... - December 14th, 2018 [December 14th, 2018]
- The Incomplete List of People Speculated to Be Satoshi ... - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto's profile updated 2018! | Crypto Insider - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Bitcoin (BTC) Creator Satoshi Nakamoto More Powerful Than ... - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? - What is Bitcoin? - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? - Invest in Blockchain - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Fake Satoshi Nakamoto Craig Wright Rats Out Ethereum Trying ... - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Will The Real Satoshi Nakamoto Please Stand Up No, Sit Down ... - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? The Top 4 Candidates Revealed ... - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Person Of The Year - Business Insider - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Will The Real Satoshi Nakamoto Please Stand Up - bitcoinist.com - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- From Dorian Nakamoto to Elon Musk: The Incomplete List of ... - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto May Have Considered a Bitcoin Kill Switch ... - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- How Rich is Satoshi Nakamoto Today? - coincentral.com - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? - CCN - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Bitcoin's Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Is Probably This Unknown ... - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto: Who is Bitcoin's Mysterious Creator ... - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto May Have Considered a Bitcoin Kill Switch - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? We Look at The Possible Candidates ... - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- New Information Heightens Satoshi Nakamoto Mystery - Bitcoin News - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Mines Over 40% of Bitcoin Cash, Sparks ... - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? John McCafee Claims to Know And ... - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- Back to the Satoshi Nakamoto Bitcoin affair - BBC News - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- Bitcoin block size limit debate: An overview - Cryptopolitan - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- Is it Legal to Invest in Bitcoins in India? Here's a Guide to Cryptocurrencies - News18 - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- Someone just moved $1.4 billion in Bitcoin - ACS - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- You Can Now Prove a Whole Blockchain With One Math Problem Really - CoinDesk - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- Bitek CEO talks spreading Bitcoin SV news in Latin America - CoinGeek - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- Are 18 months enough for SpaceChain's extraterrestrial blockchain network? - Cryptopolitan - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Bitcoin Will Surge to $20,000, States BitMEX Chief Executive After Fed Prints $53 Bln of QE - U.Today - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- The Top 5 Cryptocurrency Exchanges - Asia Crypto Today - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Snowden Triumphs Bitcoin While US Govt Tries Book Earnings Seizure - CCN.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- What Is Blockchain Technology? - The Crypto Coin Discovery - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- US Arrests One of the First Ethereum Devs - ihodl.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Craig Wright Claims He Almost Settled the Case with the Kleiman's - ihodl.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Craig Wright to Negotiate for Settlement Over 1.1 Million Bitcoin Ownership Trial - CryptoNewsZ - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Social media site Tsu set to return - ZDNet - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- OPINION: Institutional Trading Could Kill Crypto Exchanges - Markets Media - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Craig Wrights Hidden Treasures: Court Order to Unlock the Tulip Trust - Cointelegraph - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Five Reasons Satoshi Nakamoto Is Smarter than Mark Zuckerberg - CCN.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- And Satoshis True Identity is - CCN.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Donald Trump or Prince William? New Bitcoin Father Theory - Coin Idol - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- EPFL Researchers Invent Low-Cost Alternative to Bitcoin | Fintech Schweiz Digital Finance News - Fintechnews Switzerland - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- How to think about the future of digital currency - The Next Web - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Regulators Must Have Died and Made Crypto Exchanges King - CCN.com - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Bitcoin Price to Hit $90,000 After May 2020 Halving, Predicts Germany's Top... - Coinspeaker - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Block.ones SEC settlement over EOS ICO is shockingly weak say critics - Decrypt - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Bitcoin has a massive carbon footprint. This clever new cryptocurrency doesnt - Digital Trends - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- John McAfee on Libra, Satoshi Nakamoto, and the Binance Ban [BeInCrypto Interview] - BeInCrypto - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- AI, The Great Depression And Satoshi Nakamoto: Robert Shillers Narrative Economics Is A Cautionary Tale For Our Times - Forbes - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Analyzing the Bitcoin Phenomenon - ChartAttack - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Latest cryptocurrency news and prices, 09 October 2019 - The South African - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Alipay Claps Back at Binance, Reaffirms Ban on Bitcoin & Other Cryptocurrencies - BlockPublisher - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Bitcoin Association and Cambridge Partner Over Bitcoin SV - Live Bitcoin News - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- How Bitcoin Miners Fueled the Bear Market Trend of 2018 - BTCNN - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Bitfinex and Tether Face Class Action Filed by Lawyers Who Sued Craig Wright - CryptoGlobe - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Cryptocurrency: What to know about digital money - Fox Business - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Bitcoin History Part 18: The First Bitcoin Wallet - Bitcoin News - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- 2 Bitcoin Developers Explain How The Cryptocurrency Could Still Fail - Forbes - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- With 18 Million Bitcoins Mined, How Hard Is That 21 Million Limit? - CoinDesk - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Wonders Of The Blockchain-Enabled Supply Chain - Coinrevolution.com - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Oxford English Dictionary Recognizes Growing Adoption of Crypto by Adding 'Satoshi' - CryptoGlobe - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Bitcoin moves towards the foresight of inventor Satoshi Nakamoto - OBN - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Jack Dorsey: Bitcoin is becoming the Internets national currency - Decrypt - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Exclusive Interview with John McAfee: Epstein Didnt Kill Himself, Bitcoin to Hit $1 million, & Rus - U.Today - November 25th, 2019 [November 25th, 2019]
- More than just crypto: blockchain usage grows amidst greater regulation - Bobsguide - November 25th, 2019 [November 25th, 2019]