We identified Bitcoin Cash developer Gavin Andresen as being the real Satoshi Nakamoto using Eders bootstrapped stylometry method. This finding supports our previous article on the topic that also identified Gavin as Satoshi using Principal Component Analysis and Burrows delta.
Stylometry is a set of methods that aim to identify an unknown author by statistically deciphering their style using statistics. A famous example recently occurred with JK Rowlings pen name Robert Galbraith being uncovered thanks to stylometry methods.
Satoshi Nakamoto is an assumed pseudonym which the inventor of Bitcoin gave himself as to disguise his identity. There have been many attempts to uncover his identity but there remains no concrete evidence to this date. A big part of this failure can be attributed to the lack of convergence validity in the stylometry field.
Joseph Rudman, a linguist at Carnegie Mellon university, wrote an excellent paper on the faults of stylometry titled The state of non-traditional authorship attribution studies 2012: Some problems and solutions. This paper pointed out that stylometrics often cherry pick results due to their algorithms producing vastly different results when slightly tweaked.
Our previous study had elements of cherry picking in that we would get different results when we changed our model from using correlations to covariances. Overwhelmingly our model clustered Gavin Andresen with Satoshi but when we used covariances our model would load the Satoshi whitepaper onto a paper by Wei Dai.
Maciej Eder created a bootstrapping method specifically designed to overcome the problem of cherry picking elements like Most Frequent Words (MFW). The approach uses Burrows delta to find a difference between two texts, but also uses random sampling of MFW ranges so as to output more robust results. Burrows delta is basically a manhattan distance of z-scores which is sourced from a list of top words used in an entire corpus.
We used Eders bootstrapped delta to see if it would uncover the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. We generated the z-score table using means and standard deviations sourced from 20,000 English texts from the Gutenberg corpus. We then calculated the random samples for the manhattan distance algorithm for MFWs between 1 and 5,000 .
This was calculated by comparing a list of authors associated with Bitcoin against the original Bitcoin whitepaper. Finally, we used a kNN approach to sort the mean distances in order so that we could see who had the most similar writing style to Satoshi in our experiment.
We found that the first nearest neighbour was Satoshis email texts followed by 3 of Gavin Andresens GitHub documents and then followed by Satoshis forum texts. These findings are quite reasonable because not only do they validate the links between the Satoshi whitepaper-emails-forums but they also cluster Gavin as the likely author. Its also of interest that Gavins style was so much like Satoshis whitepaper that he beat Satoshi himself with the forum texts!
A limitation of the current study is that it could be measuring the style of genre rather than that of authorship. We may need to come up with a way to standardise the datasets to remove any noise that may come from such a systematic bias. One way could be to remove pronouns from the analysis because these could correlate with the style of an academic paper.
Also, weve already started work on our code stylometry machine that will analyse Satoshis C++ style of programming. Weve already found using Most Frequent Character (MFC) n-grams that Gavin also has a similar programming style to Satoshi.
A comparison of some of the texts show clearly that Gavins GitHub blogs have similar low distances to the whitepaper as does Satoshis emails/forums. This chart also shows that Gavins GitHub posts #4 has a low volatility and even beats the Satoshi email texts on many occasions.
We discretized the distances to analyse the different patterns in the heatmaps. One can clearly see Gavins GitHub blogs having low distances. You can also see that Gavins regular blog posts (sorted by year) do not load onto the whitepaper. But its also worth mentioning that with the heavily discretized heatmap (top-right) shows that only Gavin and Satoshi reach the high pink level (~0.7) of having a low distance with the whitepaper.
The heatmap below shows more clearly the Bitcoin texts we analysed. Our columns are numbered x_y with x being the iteration number and y the number of MFWs used. The column 49_2728 means that it was the 49th bootstrapped iteration and it used 2,728 MFWs for each textual comparison with the whitepaper. This chart only shows 49 iterations but our final analysis used 2,500 iterations to maximise our estimates of the population.
Our final result shows a table of z-scores of means and standard deviations of the 2,500 samples that were collected for each textual comparison with the whitepaper. The chart shows that Gavins GitHub blog #4 not only has the 2nd lowest distance to the whitepaper but also has one of the lowest sds in the entire corpus, suggesting that such a position is accurate in our knn methodology. One can not ignore that Eders bootrapped delta not only validates the connection between all 3 Satoshi texts but also loads Gavin Andresen in the top 5 results above Satoshis forum posts.
See the article here:
Bootstrapped Gavin: Satoshi Nakamotos identity revealed ...
- Satoshi Nakamoto Definition | Investopedia - February 6th, 2018 [February 6th, 2018]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto, Cryptocurrency's Elusive Creator ... - March 2nd, 2018 [March 2nd, 2018]
- Self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto sued for swindling $5 ... - March 2nd, 2018 [March 2nd, 2018]
- Bitcoin's Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Is Probably This ... - March 28th, 2018 [March 28th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto - Wikipedia - May 7th, 2018 [May 7th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Known to CIA? FBI? Created by NSA? Search ... - August 21st, 2018 [August 21st, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoins enigmatic creator - Brain scan - September 6th, 2018 [September 6th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto was interested in joining Trons Atlas ... - September 14th, 2018 [September 14th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Revealed Says UK Nonprofit Stylometry ... - October 9th, 2018 [October 9th, 2018]
- 2018 Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? Psychic Insights Michelle ... - October 28th, 2018 [October 28th, 2018]
- How bitcoin has failed to achieve Satoshi Nakamotos ... - November 6th, 2018 [November 6th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Introduced Bitcoin 10 Years Ago ... - November 6th, 2018 [November 6th, 2018]
- Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? - bitcoinplay.net - December 14th, 2018 [December 14th, 2018]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Finally Revealed! A Back-Of-The-Envelope ... - December 14th, 2018 [December 14th, 2018]
- The Incomplete List of People Speculated to Be Satoshi ... - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto's profile updated 2018! | Crypto Insider - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Bitcoin (BTC) Creator Satoshi Nakamoto More Powerful Than ... - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? - What is Bitcoin? - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? - Invest in Blockchain - January 6th, 2019 [January 6th, 2019]
- Fake Satoshi Nakamoto Craig Wright Rats Out Ethereum Trying ... - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Will The Real Satoshi Nakamoto Please Stand Up No, Sit Down ... - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? The Top 4 Candidates Revealed ... - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Person Of The Year - Business Insider - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Will The Real Satoshi Nakamoto Please Stand Up - bitcoinist.com - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- From Dorian Nakamoto to Elon Musk: The Incomplete List of ... - February 19th, 2019 [February 19th, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto May Have Considered a Bitcoin Kill Switch ... - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- How Rich is Satoshi Nakamoto Today? - coincentral.com - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? - CCN - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Bitcoin's Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Is Probably This Unknown ... - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto: Who is Bitcoin's Mysterious Creator ... - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto May Have Considered a Bitcoin Kill Switch - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? We Look at The Possible Candidates ... - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- New Information Heightens Satoshi Nakamoto Mystery - Bitcoin News - March 22nd, 2019 [March 22nd, 2019]
- Satoshi Nakamoto Mines Over 40% of Bitcoin Cash, Sparks ... - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? John McCafee Claims to Know And ... - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- Back to the Satoshi Nakamoto Bitcoin affair - BBC News - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- Bitcoin block size limit debate: An overview - Cryptopolitan - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- Is it Legal to Invest in Bitcoins in India? Here's a Guide to Cryptocurrencies - News18 - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- Someone just moved $1.4 billion in Bitcoin - ACS - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- You Can Now Prove a Whole Blockchain With One Math Problem Really - CoinDesk - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- Bitek CEO talks spreading Bitcoin SV news in Latin America - CoinGeek - September 18th, 2019 [September 18th, 2019]
- Are 18 months enough for SpaceChain's extraterrestrial blockchain network? - Cryptopolitan - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Bitcoin Will Surge to $20,000, States BitMEX Chief Executive After Fed Prints $53 Bln of QE - U.Today - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- The Top 5 Cryptocurrency Exchanges - Asia Crypto Today - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Snowden Triumphs Bitcoin While US Govt Tries Book Earnings Seizure - CCN.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- What Is Blockchain Technology? - The Crypto Coin Discovery - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- US Arrests One of the First Ethereum Devs - ihodl.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Craig Wright Claims He Almost Settled the Case with the Kleiman's - ihodl.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Craig Wright to Negotiate for Settlement Over 1.1 Million Bitcoin Ownership Trial - CryptoNewsZ - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Social media site Tsu set to return - ZDNet - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- OPINION: Institutional Trading Could Kill Crypto Exchanges - Markets Media - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Craig Wrights Hidden Treasures: Court Order to Unlock the Tulip Trust - Cointelegraph - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Five Reasons Satoshi Nakamoto Is Smarter than Mark Zuckerberg - CCN.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- And Satoshis True Identity is - CCN.com - September 19th, 2019 [September 19th, 2019]
- Donald Trump or Prince William? New Bitcoin Father Theory - Coin Idol - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- EPFL Researchers Invent Low-Cost Alternative to Bitcoin | Fintech Schweiz Digital Finance News - Fintechnews Switzerland - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- How to think about the future of digital currency - The Next Web - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Regulators Must Have Died and Made Crypto Exchanges King - CCN.com - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Bitcoin Price to Hit $90,000 After May 2020 Halving, Predicts Germany's Top... - Coinspeaker - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Block.ones SEC settlement over EOS ICO is shockingly weak say critics - Decrypt - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Bitcoin has a massive carbon footprint. This clever new cryptocurrency doesnt - Digital Trends - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- John McAfee on Libra, Satoshi Nakamoto, and the Binance Ban [BeInCrypto Interview] - BeInCrypto - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- AI, The Great Depression And Satoshi Nakamoto: Robert Shillers Narrative Economics Is A Cautionary Tale For Our Times - Forbes - October 2nd, 2019 [October 2nd, 2019]
- Analyzing the Bitcoin Phenomenon - ChartAttack - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Latest cryptocurrency news and prices, 09 October 2019 - The South African - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Alipay Claps Back at Binance, Reaffirms Ban on Bitcoin & Other Cryptocurrencies - BlockPublisher - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Bitcoin Association and Cambridge Partner Over Bitcoin SV - Live Bitcoin News - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- How Bitcoin Miners Fueled the Bear Market Trend of 2018 - BTCNN - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Bitfinex and Tether Face Class Action Filed by Lawyers Who Sued Craig Wright - CryptoGlobe - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Cryptocurrency: What to know about digital money - Fox Business - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- Bitcoin History Part 18: The First Bitcoin Wallet - Bitcoin News - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- 2 Bitcoin Developers Explain How The Cryptocurrency Could Still Fail - Forbes - October 12th, 2019 [October 12th, 2019]
- With 18 Million Bitcoins Mined, How Hard Is That 21 Million Limit? - CoinDesk - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Wonders Of The Blockchain-Enabled Supply Chain - Coinrevolution.com - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Oxford English Dictionary Recognizes Growing Adoption of Crypto by Adding 'Satoshi' - CryptoGlobe - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Bitcoin moves towards the foresight of inventor Satoshi Nakamoto - OBN - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Jack Dorsey: Bitcoin is becoming the Internets national currency - Decrypt - October 25th, 2019 [October 25th, 2019]
- Exclusive Interview with John McAfee: Epstein Didnt Kill Himself, Bitcoin to Hit $1 million, & Rus - U.Today - November 25th, 2019 [November 25th, 2019]
- More than just crypto: blockchain usage grows amidst greater regulation - Bobsguide - November 25th, 2019 [November 25th, 2019]
- Default Bitcoin Addresses Are Now Longer But Simpler & Cheaper to Use - Cryptonews - November 25th, 2019 [November 25th, 2019]