Robots in Action: How a Pandemic Affects the Future Face of the Armed Forces – Valdai Discussion Club

At this point in time, most countries and defense industries that manufacture unmanned military systems are still on track to deliver them to their respective militaries. For example, in April 2020, US military was testing out a new tactical UAV that would replace an older, mass-produced drone. On May 8, in the midst of global pandemic quarantines, Russian defense-industrial establishment tested a breakthrough deep-water unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), with possible transfer of this vehicle to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Another example of business as usual is Russias Rostec Corporations deal to manufacture tilt-rotor UAVs for the Artic. In other worlds, the industry pace is staying on course.

Should there be another COVID-like wave that could potentially limit the movement and deployment of military forces, the need for the "eyes, ears and sensors" would be even more acute. Since the military unmanned systems are becoming a key part of the C4ISR structures (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance), a force that could be limited in basic operations would rely on technology that could overcome such a limitation. This is where numerous unmanned systems are most useful. In armed forces with more advanced unmanned weapons development, that means greater pace of utilization of this capability for operating well beyond the horizon - from a few to a few hundred miles. Should human aircraft pilots, artillery complements or naval units be grounded due to health concerns, the unmanned systems could potentially step in their place to deliver key information or strike the adversary, while allowing the operators to work from remote and safe locations.

Moreover, todays military sometimes borrows from the civilian technologies and lessons learned in order to hone its own operations and TTPS. As the COVID-19 spread around the world, the frequency of discussions about using unmanned systems in place of humans in different industries has accelerated. For example, aerial drones and unmanned ground vehicles were used to monitor populations, deliver products and disinfect physical objects. For the law enforcement, security and interior ministry-type organizations, the UAVs in particular offered a cheap and capable solution for population oversight. Many nations may choose to incorporate the use of such unmanned systems in their daily CONOPS, as the threat of repeat pandemics is discussed. For the military, using unmanned systems for logistics and support was already a rapidly growing development area even before COVID-19 hit. There is no indication today that the development, testing and use of such technology would slow down in a post-COVID world, since the use of robotics safeguards human lives on the battlefield, and frees up human assets for other missions.

For the United States, one of the main leaders in unmanned military technology research, development, testing and evaluation, post-COVID budgetary pressures may require the government to identify cost-informed means to conduct its national security activities more affordably, as the severity of the crisis required the government to spend trillions to mitigate its financial impact and protect the economy. For Washington, engaging in the global competition during the pandemic requires maintaining deterrence that may be achieved more economically through indirect and asymmetric military means. Such requirements are not unique to the US alone, and invoke the need for cheaper technological solutions that can achieve potentially the same results as using more expensive alternate platforms. As an example, todays combat UAVs are slowly closing the capability gaps with manned aircraft, and are utilized across the world in place of, or as complementary units to manned aviation.

Todays unmanned/remotely controlled military systems are slowly maturing into more sophisticated designs that are starting to perform more independent tasks, in non-military and actual combat environments. The ongoing and future pandemics are unlikely to reverse this trend. Most importantly, conflict around the world - intra-state, cross-border, and even potentially inter-state - is unlikely to stop even in the midst of a severe pandemic. These conflicts are not hitting a pause button due to medical reasons, which in turn assures the constant need for new and improved weapons that can augment existing human capabilities. This is where military robotics come in, as more and more nations and their armed forces build on current experience with using and building machines to further their goals.