Endless Frontier, the 1945 civilian-science manifesto by U.S. wartime research chief Vannevar Bush, cites the information technology, life-science and consumer-product breakthroughs of the 1930s (radar and radio, sulfa drugs and penicillin, rayon and air conditioners) as evidence of the possible future:
More jobs, higher wages, shorter hours, more abundant cropslearning to live without the deadening drudgery which has been the burden of the common man for ages pastcontrol of our insect enemiesmeans of defense against aggressionprevention or cure of diseases.
To bring dreams to earth, Endless Frontier suggested a permanent government commitment by the United States to scientific research and education. This would include federal investment in basic research, scholarships for science and engineering students, transparent patent laws, a research and development tax credit and so on.
Mr. Bush (unrelated to the political family of the same name) seems to have worried that idealistic hopes and predictions of better lives might not be enough to get the job done. So he added a mildly nationalistic warning:
A nation which depends upon others for its new basic scientific knowledge will be slow in its industrial progress and weak in its competitive position in world trade.
Seven decades later, the Obama administration hopes to win approval for a $135 billion science budget, replete with interesting follow-ons to the 1930s breakthroughs. It includes projects for deep-space exploration, carbon capture, anti-viral medicine, nano-engineered materials, cyber-security and more.
Apart from the merits of this work, how does it fit into the 21st-century scientific world?
The OECDs annual Main Science and Technology Indicators provides figures for research spending, scientific employment and more in the 34 OECD member countries plus Argentina, China, Taiwan, Russia, Singapore and South Africa.
The OECDs most recent estimates find the United States home to 1.25 million working researchers, out of roughly 6.3 million worldwide. It is home to 16% of the worlds researchers. By comparison, the United States has about 4% of all world workers.
Measured by spending, the OECD finds about $1.6 trillion in R&D worldwide as of 2013, of which the United States, with a commitment of about $470 billion, is the worlds largest spender.
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The United States Technological Future: An Endless Frontier?
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