When I first discovered Moores law in 1983, I realized I could use it as one of my tools to accurately predict the future of technological change. At the time, few were paying much attention to Moores law. Over the decades, the press has declared the death of Moores law, usually stating that it is impossible for scientists to make processors smaller and more powerful at the same exponential rate. This news usually comes from a tech conference where industry executives share their frustration in going to the next level. We have recently seen major news reports of this kind. I am always reminded of a great quote: The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.
Although that iconic remark attributed to Mark Twain is, in reality, a misquotation, it does aptly summarize the recent rebirth of Moores law.
But to my mind, the purported phoenix like rise from the ashes of one of technologys best-known principles really misses the mark so far as anticipatory thinking is concerned. We need to be asking more pertinent questions and looking at bigger issues that command greater attention.
At the risk of explaining a concept thats already widely understood, Moores lawnamed after Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel and Fairchild Semiconductordeals with processing power, the speed at which a machine can perform a particular task. In 1965, Moore published a paper in which he observed that, between 1958 and 1965, the number of transistors on an integrated circuit had doubled every 18 to 24 months. At the same time, Moore noted, the price of those integrated circuits dropped by half.
Although the formula held true for some 50 years, critics have been quick to point to possible death knells over the past several years. In effect, they argue that a transistor can only be made more powerful and smaller as chips inevitably keep getting more expensive to produce.
Whenever I hear this type of prediction, I write an article reminding us all that using the word impossible is a bet against human creativity and ingenuity and they will be wrong. Case in point, last year IBM proved them all wrong by doing the impossible and introducing a new chipset, keeping Moores law going, and Intel just did it again by recently unveiling its long-anticipated Cannonlake chipset. The Intel chips are a mere 10 nanometers, down from 14 nanometers used in currently available chips.
The product debut, announced Intel CEO Brian Krzanich, underscored the reality that Moores law was still, in fact, alive, well and flourishing, as Krzanich put it.
The fact that Intels announcement, at the very least, waters down the obituaries for Moores law, is certainly good news. The fact that processing chips can continue to be manufactured to increasingly stringent specifications bodes well for anyone who uses technology in some capacity (meaning all of us).
But I also feel very strongly that it keeps us from seeing the bigger picture. Instead, we need to be asking better questions, because the factors encompassed by Moores law simply no longer matter as much as they once did. We depend less on advances in chip technology because of the exponential growth of the capabilities of the overall ecosystem of which chips, bandwidth and digital storage are merely one part.
Heres one way to look at it. Not very long ago, a laptop was largely a stand-alone device, as its storage and processing power derived solely from its chips.
Not anymore. For one thing, we now use a smart phone or tablet to access supercomputers in the cloud, allowing us to go far beyond the processing power of the individual chips in our devices. Thats how we can use powerful tools such as Apples Siri, the Amazon Echo and Google Home to tap into the capabilities of the worlds supercomputers with just a few spoken words.
Looked at another way, in the recent past, we all relied on the power of the chips in our devices, but today we have the computing power of the world in our pockets or on top of a table, and it isnt limited as it once was to the chips inside a device.
All this boils down to the fact that, despite Moores laws focus on the processing speed of the chip, computing power is no longer limited to the computational brute strength of the individual device. Its more specialized, meaning that overall computing power will continue to improve as functions such as distributed computing, digital storage, advanced bandwidth, wired and wireless, and network processing are more equitably spread out over an ecosystem of computing power.
It also comes down to looking past the surface when seemingly central issues are raised. In this case, whether Moores law is dead and buried or alive and kicking is, in many ways, less relevant when compared with other advances in technology and structure. And it begs the question: What issues and developments are you and your organization examining at a deeper level to identify game-changing insights and opportunities? Are we all paying sufficient attention to the transformational advances in the whole technology ecosystem, or needlessly focusing on just one or two elements?
Link:
Moore's New Law: Put your Chips on What's Possible. - Huffington Post
- HD Moores Law - Video - July 24th, 2012 [July 24th, 2012]
- Moores Law - Transistor Graph - Video - July 24th, 2012 [July 24th, 2012]
- Moores Lane road construction project begins - October 2nd, 2012 [October 2nd, 2012]
- Orono man totals pickup while reaching for cellphone - October 2nd, 2012 [October 2nd, 2012]
- 2 in Charlotte face fake ID charges - October 4th, 2012 [October 4th, 2012]
- Why there may be more to computing than Moores Law - October 11th, 2012 [October 11th, 2012]
- VR pioneer invents 'illumination-as-a-service' - October 12th, 2012 [October 12th, 2012]
- What is reality...M theory vs Moores law creating real universe vs creating a virtual one - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- The Rayz/Moores Law @ Put-in-Bay Final Countdown - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moores Law @ Beer Barrel Put-in-Bay Hip Hop Medley - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Good explanation of the singularity - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- What you MUST know about the future - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Computer Apple 1 How to tell value KK4WW - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Rise of the transapients - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moores Law Music Performing Bruce Springsteen - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moore's Law Ice Cream Man - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moores Law performs Vehicle at PIB - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Explaining Moores Law [HD] - MOCustoms.co.uk - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Global Challenge Part Fifty - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Towards next-generation devices through computer nanomaterial design for semiconductor spintronics - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Aiming to establish new spintronics - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Correlated electronic materials - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Energy Efficient Electronics: Searching for the Milli-Volt Switch - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moores Law - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Geeking out aero-style for a hundred bucks - Dan Shapiro - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- moores law visualization - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- how moores law affects conrad shawcross - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- The Everton Autobiography: How the Blues nearly signed the great Ferenc Puskas & when police action thwarted Goodison ... - November 2nd, 2012 [November 2nd, 2012]
- Letters: Guardian 'surrender' on self-regulation - November 7th, 2012 [November 7th, 2012]
- Academics take issue with Guardian editorial on press regulation - November 9th, 2012 [November 9th, 2012]
- Area deaths - November 22nd, 2012 [November 22nd, 2012]
- clip 2012 12 02 19;00;19 - Video - December 4th, 2012 [December 4th, 2012]
- Police news: Twice as many helmeted motorcyclists crash since law repeal, kids pair with emergency responders during ... - December 5th, 2012 [December 5th, 2012]
- Clallam burglaries are on the rise - December 6th, 2012 [December 6th, 2012]
- When exotic investments are too good to be true - December 10th, 2012 [December 10th, 2012]
- Top headlines: Man in custody in deadly drive-by shooting, Genesee County commissioner says judge can pay back ... - December 12th, 2012 [December 12th, 2012]
- Paul Raschke - Obituary - December 12th, 2012 [December 12th, 2012]
- Pitt County Grand Jury - December 17th, 2012 [December 17th, 2012]
- Connecticut school shooting prompts Genesee County schools, police to take extra precautions - December 18th, 2012 [December 18th, 2012]
- MEN Sport review of the year 2012 - December 18th, 2012 [December 18th, 2012]
- 'The police weren't laughing:' Text message 'joke' of gunfire frightens Grand Blanc, county schools deal with 'end of ... - December 20th, 2012 [December 20th, 2012]
- Top headlines: Schools closed in Genesee County amid violence rumors, Flint church holds candlelight vigil - December 21st, 2012 [December 21st, 2012]
- More than $1 million worth of drugs seized in Salisbury - December 21st, 2012 [December 21st, 2012]
- Anatomy of the school-closing decision: Rumors of violence led to all Genesee County schools shutting for two days - December 21st, 2012 [December 21st, 2012]
- Solo rock stars die sooner than those in bands - December 21st, 2012 [December 21st, 2012]
- Lecturer's private research not 'held' by university for purposes of FOI disclosure, rules Tribunal - December 22nd, 2012 [December 22nd, 2012]
- Liverpool Local News: Liverpool John Moores University to handout record £2.1m after trebling student scholarship kitty - December 26th, 2012 [December 26th, 2012]
- University and College News: Liverpool John Moores University to handout record £2.1m after trebling student ... - December 26th, 2012 [December 26th, 2012]
- Storm whips into Northeast bringing snow, rain - December 28th, 2012 [December 28th, 2012]
- Genesee County sheriff says fireplace blockage may have allowed carbon monoxide buildup - December 28th, 2012 [December 28th, 2012]
- Moores Law Experiment 2 - Video - September 18th, 2013 [September 18th, 2013]
- The Skanner Newspaper - Remember the Moores at Christmastime - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- HowStuffWorks "How Moore's Law Works" - Computer - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Minneapolis Housing Trend Favors More Residential Home Office Use - December 31st, 2013 [December 31st, 2013]
- Kendal solicitor wins place with top law firm - January 1st, 2014 [January 1st, 2014]
- Prince George’s County home sales - January 3rd, 2014 [January 3rd, 2014]
- Obituary: Loyce Tapp - January 5th, 2014 [January 5th, 2014]
- More charges for WSU grad arrested with bombs - January 11th, 2014 [January 11th, 2014]
- Chemical weapons charge added to man with dozens of bombs - January 11th, 2014 [January 11th, 2014]
- Myths of Moore's Law - CNET News - January 16th, 2014 [January 16th, 2014]
- Team 10 saves war medals from auction - January 22nd, 2014 [January 22nd, 2014]
- Dad who abducted kids, fled to Cuba found insane - January 23rd, 2014 [January 23rd, 2014]
- Calendar: Jan. 23 to 26 - January 23rd, 2014 [January 23rd, 2014]
- After baby's death in Perry County, parents seek answers - January 23rd, 2014 [January 23rd, 2014]
- Simulations to enable novel lithographic patterning techniques - January 28th, 2014 [January 28th, 2014]
- Sullivan sued by victim’s parents - January 30th, 2014 [January 30th, 2014]
- Palm Beach murderer James Sulllivan sued to recover $13.5 million he was ordered to pay 20 years ago for killing his ... - January 30th, 2014 [January 30th, 2014]
- Group: Adult jail no place for juveniles - January 31st, 2014 [January 31st, 2014]
- Sotomayor Presides Over Moot Court Raising Privacy Questions - January 31st, 2014 [January 31st, 2014]
- Harbour Grace mayor under pressure over staffing crisis - February 4th, 2014 [February 4th, 2014]
- Colleens Dream Foundation Grants Over $12,000 to UC San Diego Moores Cancer Center to Fund Ovarian Cancer Research - February 4th, 2014 [February 4th, 2014]
- Crossbar nanowire chips combine to form tiny CPU for ... - February 6th, 2014 [February 6th, 2014]
- New Mexico Blocks Vote on Legalized Pot - February 12th, 2014 [February 12th, 2014]
- Calendar Feb. 17 to Feb.19 - February 18th, 2014 [February 18th, 2014]
- Calendar: Feb. 20 to 23 - February 20th, 2014 [February 20th, 2014]
- IBM Atomic Shorts The end of Moores law 00 12 - Video - February 28th, 2014 [February 28th, 2014]
- MIT Research Looks to Extend Moores Law - March 1st, 2014 [March 1st, 2014]
- Indiana Guardsman's bomb-possession charge moved to federal court - March 4th, 2014 [March 4th, 2014]
- Bomb case moved to federal court - March 5th, 2014 [March 5th, 2014]
- Will 100 become the new 60? - March 9th, 2014 [March 9th, 2014]