Only a fourth of semiconductor business leaders believe Moore's Law will continue for the foreseeable future in an otherwise upbeat survey conducted by KPMG.

As we approach the 50th anniversary of Moores Law in April, the semiconductor industry faces the question of whether it can continue to innovate at the pace Gordon Moores landmark paper predicted. Some dont think so.

In fact, only a fourth of the business leaders surveyed for my firms annual semiconductor industry survey expect the benefits of Moores Law to continue for the foreseeable future. More than half said Moores Law will no longer apply at various nodes less than 22 nanometers, while 16 percent said it already has ended.

The uncertainty surrounding Moores Law offers one of a few points of caution in an otherwise confident outlook from semiconductor company leaders globally. Interestingly, their confidence level is at its highest level in five years, according to KPMGs research.

Our survey found that a higher percentage of semiconductor leaders expect their companys revenue to grow in 2015 compared to the prior years survey (81% vs. 77%). However, respondents predict a more moderate growth rate for this year, with most predicting growth of just 1-5%, which is consistent with analyst predictions.

However, not all respondents are in line with the moderate outlook some (20%) are predicting that their companies will grow revenue at rates higher than 10%. Double-digit growth has been the case in certain sectors such as memory and among the best performing companies in the wireless, data communications and automotive space.

With three consecutive years of revenue growth, we believed the time was right this year to ask semiconductor business leaders about the stage and health of the current industry cycle. The responses provided three takeaways:

Our survey also asked respondents which segments of the industry will be most attractive for growth. Not surprisingly, sensors rated as the most attractive technology segment. They are becoming more widespread in a number of high growth applications, as the emphasis on the Internet of Things at the recent Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas demonstrated.

Semiconductor business leaders rated microprocessors and other logic next most attractive, followed by optoelectronics. Memory also scored well, riding the wave of increased storage needs and favorable supply-and-demand dynamics.

Medical topped the list of attractive end markets with major areas of opportunity such as imaging, health monitoring, and medical devices. Networking and communications rated high as well, with the ongoing investment in data center and communications infrastructure. Also highly rated were the consumer, computing, automotive, and industrial markets.

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Moores Law Chips Confidence