In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors that could fit on a computer chip would grow exponentially and they did, doubling about every two years. For half a century, Moores Law has endured: Computers have gotten smaller, faster, cheaper, and more efficient, enabling the rapid worldwide adoption of PCs, smartphones, high-speed internet, and more.
This miniaturization trend has led to silicon chips today that have almost unimaginably small circuitry. Transistors, the tiny switches that implement computer microprocessors, are so small that 1,000 of them laid end-to-end are no wider than a human hair. And for a long time, the smaller the transistors were, the faster they could switch. But today, were approaching the limit of how small transistors can get. As a result, over the past decade researchers have been scratching their heads to find other ways to improve performance so that the computer industry can continue to innovate.
While we wait for the maturation of new computing technologies like quantum, carbon nanotubes, or photonics (which may take a while), other approaches will be needed to get performance as Moores Law comes to an end. In a recent journal article published in Science, a team from MITs Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) identifies three key areas to prioritize to continue to deliver computing speed-ups: better software, new algorithms, and more streamlined hardware.
Senior author Charles E. Leiserson says that the performance benefits from miniaturization have been so great that, for decades, programmers have been able to prioritize making code-writing easier rather than making the code itself run faster. The inefficiency that this tendency introduces has been acceptable, because faster computer chips have always been able to pick up the slack.
But nowadays, being able to make further advances in fields like machine learning, robotics, and virtual reality will require huge amounts of computational power that miniaturization can no longer provide, says Leiserson, the Edwin Sibley Webster Professor in MIT's Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. If we want to harness the full potential of these technologies, we must change our approach to computing.
Leiserson co-wrote the paper, published this week, with Research Scientist Neil Thompson, Professor Daniel Sanchez, Adjunct Professor Butler Lampson, and research scientists Joel Emer, Bradley Kuszmaul, and Tao Schardl.
No more Moore
The authors make recommendations about three areas of computing: software, algorithms, and hardware architecture.
With software, they say that programmers previous prioritization of productivity over performance has led to problematic strategies like reduction: taking code that worked on problem A and using it to solve problem B. For example, if someone has to create a system to recognize yes-or-no voice commands, but doesnt want to code a whole new custom program, they could take an existing program that recognizes a wide range of words and tweak it to respond only to yes-or-no answers.
While this approach reduces coding time, the inefficiencies it creates quickly compound: if a single reduction is 80 percent as efficient as a custom solution, and you then add 20 layers of reduction, the code will ultimately be 100 times less efficient than it could be.
These are the kinds of strategies that programmers have to rethink as hardware improvements slow down, says Thompson. We cant keep doing business as usual if we want to continue to get the speed-ups weve grown accustomed to.
Instead, the researchers recommend techniques like parallelizing code. Much existing software has been designed using ancient assumptions that processors can only do only one operation at a time. But in recent years multicore technology has enabled complex tasks to be completed thousands of times faster and in a much more energy-efficient way.
Since Moore's Law will not be handing us improved performance on a silver platter, we will have to deliver performance the hard way, says Moshe Vardi, a professor in computational engineering at Rice University. This is a great opportunity for computing research, and the [MIT CSAIL] report provides a road map for such research.
As for algorithms, the team suggests a three-pronged approach that includes exploring new problem areas, addressing concerns about how algorithms scale, and tailoring them to better take advantage of modern hardware.
Lastly, in terms of hardware architecture, the team advocates that hardware be streamlined so that problems can be solved with fewer transistors and less silicon. Streamlining includes using simpler processors and creating hardware tailored to specific applications, like the graphics-processing unit is tailored for computer graphics.
Hardware customized for particular domains can be much more efficient and use far fewer transistors, enabling applications to run tens to hundreds of times faster, says Schardl. More generally, hardware streamlining would further encourage parallel programming, creating additional chip area to be used for more circuitry that can operate in parallel.
While these approaches may be the best path forward, the researchers say that it wont always be an easy one. Organizations that use such techniques may not know the benefits of their efforts until after theyve invested a lot of engineering time. Plus, the speed-ups wont be as consistent as they were with Moores Law: they may be dramatic at first, and then require large amounts of effort for smaller improvements.
Certain companies have already gotten the memo.
For tech giants like Google and Amazon, the huge scale of their data centers means that even small improvements in software performance can result in large financial returns, says Thompson. But while these firms may be leading the charge, many others will need to take these issues seriously if they want to stay competitive.
Getting improvements in the areas identified by the team will also require building up the infrastructure and workforce that make them possible.
Performance growth will require new tools, programming languages, and hardware to facilitate more and better performance engineering, says Leiserson. It also means computer scientists being better educated about how we can make software, algorithms, and hardware work together, instead of putting them in different silos.
This work was supported, in part, by the National Science Foundation.
See the rest here:
If transistors can't get smaller, then coders have to get smarter - MIT News
- HD Moores Law - Video - July 24th, 2012 [July 24th, 2012]
- Moores Law - Transistor Graph - Video - July 24th, 2012 [July 24th, 2012]
- Moores Lane road construction project begins - October 2nd, 2012 [October 2nd, 2012]
- Orono man totals pickup while reaching for cellphone - October 2nd, 2012 [October 2nd, 2012]
- 2 in Charlotte face fake ID charges - October 4th, 2012 [October 4th, 2012]
- Why there may be more to computing than Moores Law - October 11th, 2012 [October 11th, 2012]
- VR pioneer invents 'illumination-as-a-service' - October 12th, 2012 [October 12th, 2012]
- What is reality...M theory vs Moores law creating real universe vs creating a virtual one - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- The Rayz/Moores Law @ Put-in-Bay Final Countdown - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moores Law @ Beer Barrel Put-in-Bay Hip Hop Medley - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Good explanation of the singularity - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- What you MUST know about the future - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Computer Apple 1 How to tell value KK4WW - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Rise of the transapients - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moores Law Music Performing Bruce Springsteen - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moore's Law Ice Cream Man - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moores Law performs Vehicle at PIB - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Explaining Moores Law [HD] - MOCustoms.co.uk - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Global Challenge Part Fifty - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Towards next-generation devices through computer nanomaterial design for semiconductor spintronics - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Aiming to establish new spintronics - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Correlated electronic materials - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Energy Efficient Electronics: Searching for the Milli-Volt Switch - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Moores Law - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- Geeking out aero-style for a hundred bucks - Dan Shapiro - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- moores law visualization - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- how moores law affects conrad shawcross - Video - October 30th, 2012 [October 30th, 2012]
- The Everton Autobiography: How the Blues nearly signed the great Ferenc Puskas & when police action thwarted Goodison ... - November 2nd, 2012 [November 2nd, 2012]
- Letters: Guardian 'surrender' on self-regulation - November 7th, 2012 [November 7th, 2012]
- Academics take issue with Guardian editorial on press regulation - November 9th, 2012 [November 9th, 2012]
- Area deaths - November 22nd, 2012 [November 22nd, 2012]
- clip 2012 12 02 19;00;19 - Video - December 4th, 2012 [December 4th, 2012]
- Police news: Twice as many helmeted motorcyclists crash since law repeal, kids pair with emergency responders during ... - December 5th, 2012 [December 5th, 2012]
- Clallam burglaries are on the rise - December 6th, 2012 [December 6th, 2012]
- When exotic investments are too good to be true - December 10th, 2012 [December 10th, 2012]
- Top headlines: Man in custody in deadly drive-by shooting, Genesee County commissioner says judge can pay back ... - December 12th, 2012 [December 12th, 2012]
- Paul Raschke - Obituary - December 12th, 2012 [December 12th, 2012]
- Pitt County Grand Jury - December 17th, 2012 [December 17th, 2012]
- Connecticut school shooting prompts Genesee County schools, police to take extra precautions - December 18th, 2012 [December 18th, 2012]
- MEN Sport review of the year 2012 - December 18th, 2012 [December 18th, 2012]
- 'The police weren't laughing:' Text message 'joke' of gunfire frightens Grand Blanc, county schools deal with 'end of ... - December 20th, 2012 [December 20th, 2012]
- Top headlines: Schools closed in Genesee County amid violence rumors, Flint church holds candlelight vigil - December 21st, 2012 [December 21st, 2012]
- More than $1 million worth of drugs seized in Salisbury - December 21st, 2012 [December 21st, 2012]
- Anatomy of the school-closing decision: Rumors of violence led to all Genesee County schools shutting for two days - December 21st, 2012 [December 21st, 2012]
- Solo rock stars die sooner than those in bands - December 21st, 2012 [December 21st, 2012]
- Lecturer's private research not 'held' by university for purposes of FOI disclosure, rules Tribunal - December 22nd, 2012 [December 22nd, 2012]
- Liverpool Local News: Liverpool John Moores University to handout record £2.1m after trebling student scholarship kitty - December 26th, 2012 [December 26th, 2012]
- University and College News: Liverpool John Moores University to handout record £2.1m after trebling student ... - December 26th, 2012 [December 26th, 2012]
- Storm whips into Northeast bringing snow, rain - December 28th, 2012 [December 28th, 2012]
- Genesee County sheriff says fireplace blockage may have allowed carbon monoxide buildup - December 28th, 2012 [December 28th, 2012]
- Moores Law Experiment 2 - Video - September 18th, 2013 [September 18th, 2013]
- The Skanner Newspaper - Remember the Moores at Christmastime - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- HowStuffWorks "How Moore's Law Works" - Computer - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Minneapolis Housing Trend Favors More Residential Home Office Use - December 31st, 2013 [December 31st, 2013]
- Kendal solicitor wins place with top law firm - January 1st, 2014 [January 1st, 2014]
- Prince George’s County home sales - January 3rd, 2014 [January 3rd, 2014]
- Obituary: Loyce Tapp - January 5th, 2014 [January 5th, 2014]
- More charges for WSU grad arrested with bombs - January 11th, 2014 [January 11th, 2014]
- Chemical weapons charge added to man with dozens of bombs - January 11th, 2014 [January 11th, 2014]
- Myths of Moore's Law - CNET News - January 16th, 2014 [January 16th, 2014]
- Team 10 saves war medals from auction - January 22nd, 2014 [January 22nd, 2014]
- Dad who abducted kids, fled to Cuba found insane - January 23rd, 2014 [January 23rd, 2014]
- Calendar: Jan. 23 to 26 - January 23rd, 2014 [January 23rd, 2014]
- After baby's death in Perry County, parents seek answers - January 23rd, 2014 [January 23rd, 2014]
- Simulations to enable novel lithographic patterning techniques - January 28th, 2014 [January 28th, 2014]
- Sullivan sued by victim’s parents - January 30th, 2014 [January 30th, 2014]
- Palm Beach murderer James Sulllivan sued to recover $13.5 million he was ordered to pay 20 years ago for killing his ... - January 30th, 2014 [January 30th, 2014]
- Group: Adult jail no place for juveniles - January 31st, 2014 [January 31st, 2014]
- Sotomayor Presides Over Moot Court Raising Privacy Questions - January 31st, 2014 [January 31st, 2014]
- Harbour Grace mayor under pressure over staffing crisis - February 4th, 2014 [February 4th, 2014]
- Colleens Dream Foundation Grants Over $12,000 to UC San Diego Moores Cancer Center to Fund Ovarian Cancer Research - February 4th, 2014 [February 4th, 2014]
- Crossbar nanowire chips combine to form tiny CPU for ... - February 6th, 2014 [February 6th, 2014]
- New Mexico Blocks Vote on Legalized Pot - February 12th, 2014 [February 12th, 2014]
- Calendar Feb. 17 to Feb.19 - February 18th, 2014 [February 18th, 2014]
- Calendar: Feb. 20 to 23 - February 20th, 2014 [February 20th, 2014]
- IBM Atomic Shorts The end of Moores law 00 12 - Video - February 28th, 2014 [February 28th, 2014]
- MIT Research Looks to Extend Moores Law - March 1st, 2014 [March 1st, 2014]
- Indiana Guardsman's bomb-possession charge moved to federal court - March 4th, 2014 [March 4th, 2014]
- Bomb case moved to federal court - March 5th, 2014 [March 5th, 2014]
- Will 100 become the new 60? - March 9th, 2014 [March 9th, 2014]