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Moores Law has a dark side.The acceleration of technology means niche products quickly become commodities. In the case of GoPro Inc(NASDAQ:GPRO), it meant that a cheap, sturdy video camera that could bemounted on a cyclists headbecametoo cheap to remain profitable.
GoPro CEO and founder Nicholas Woodman saw this coming, but instead of seeking to build a market in other, more expensive cameras that might see waves other than visible light, he decided to mount his commodity cameras on more complex devices, namely drones.
In doing so,GPRO became a small, high-priced competitor to a company with lower costs, SZ DJI Technology Co.Now, GoProis getting crushed on the one hand by its commodity nature, and on the other hand by a competitor with lower costs and more capital.
This isnot a good place for GoPro stock to be.
Analysts saw this coming. The average rating on GoPro stock has been underweight for months, with more screaming sell than buy, even as shares have plunged more than50% since last October.
GoPro is expected to report another bad quarteron July 26 losses of approximately$50 million, or 35 cents per share, on revenue of $243.59 million. Bullswill note that represents 10% growth over last year, and fewer losses, but the problems here are more fundamental.
Most InvestorPlace writers are telling readers to go away. James Brumley recently called the stock a one hit wonder.Tom Taulli said the creative magic is long gone.Ryan Fuhrman called it a real buzz kill.
Only Richard Saintvilus sees any hope, mainly in the companys software. The drone market is growing rapidly, and content sharing through GPROsoftware holds promise. With a market cap now lower than its annual sales, albeitsolid sales, he holds out for hopeof a second-half rebound.
Most of the opportunity in the drone market lies in heavy commercial and military drones, the kind that can drop packages and bombs, rather thanin the lightweight, consumer, camera-focused drones that GoPro makes.
But, that does bring up a promising path forward, shouldGoPro choose to take it. I dont buy stocks based on an assumption that management will change course, but if GPROdid shift its focus, stockholders would benefit.
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GoPro Inc (GPRO): The Dark Side of Moore's Law - Investorplace.com
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