Earth's average temperature has increased by about 2 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, which is causing a whole slew of problems from intensifying wildfires to melting ice sheets toocean levels rising.Scientists have urged that humanity must limit further warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which is the goal set in the Paris Agreement, or risk catastrophe. While cities drowning due to sea levels rise is sometimes discussed as a worst-case scenario, new research says such doomsday scenarios are all but certain.
A new study published in Nature Communications this week states that an estimated 150 million people are living on land that will be below the high tide line by 2050. That estimate was previously believed to be around 38 million people.
A handful of major cities around the world could be plagued by annual flooding events as soon as 2050, too.
150 million people represents 2% of Earth's current population, meaning one in fifty humans on Earth live on land that may be submerged within 31 years. Such a migration event would constitute the greatest refugee crises in the history of the planet, dwarfing the refugee crisis resultant of the second world war.
The new estimates were made by scientists at Climate Central, a science organization based in New Jersey. The study states that 70 percent of the total number of people around the world living on vulnerable land are in just eight Asian countries: China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Japan. Specifically, six Asian nations China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are predicted to be the most vulnerable. The peer-reviewed study states that 237 million people in these countries occupy areas that are highly likely to experience coastal flooding once or multiple times per year by 2050.
This estimate quadruples previous ones used with older elevation data. Traditional elevation measurements use satellites and often struggle to account the difference between the true ground level and the tops of buildings, trees and other elevated structures. Researchers at Climate Central used artificial intelligence to make more accurate predictions.
Even more concerning, the predictions dont include future population growth or land lost to coastal erosion. In Vietnam, previous estimates showed some scattered parts of southern Vietnam being submerged by a high tide. The latest predictions by Climate Central predict that the entire half of the country will be submerged. Much of Ho Chi Minh City, which is a major economic hub and home to nearly 9 million people, is part of what is expected to submerge.
In Thailand, Bangkok is especially threatened, according to the study. The Pearl River Delta, in China, Bangladesh and Jakarta, Indonesia, are too. Jakarta has been dubbed the fastest sinking city in the world, by the BBC, which has reported how the Indonesian capital of Jakarta is sinking by an average of one to 15 centimeters a year.
Much of Mumbai, India, is at risk of being wiped out as well. Previously, estimates suggested that 5 million people in India would face challenges by sea levels rising, but the new ones suggest it would be around 36 million people.
The study notes that some of the coastal cities will likely see larger proportions of their populations being displaced. Even with lower carbon emissions and stable Antarctic ice sheets, these cities are still expected to be impacted.
We find that the global impacts of sea-level rise and coastal flooding this century will likely be far greater than indicated by the most pessimistic past analyses relying on [shuttle radar topography], the study states. These results point to great need for the development and public release of improved terrain elevation datasets for coastal areas, for example via the high-resolution imagery and lidar point clouds increasingly collected by satellite today.
As Salon has previously reported, the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic has declined by 95 percent over the past three decades.
As scientists at various agencies including NASA have warned, even if humanity stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, global warming would still happen for decades and even centuries.
Thats because it takes a while for the planet (for example, the oceans) to respond, and because carbon dioxide the predominant heat-trapping gas lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, NASA states.
Responding to climate change, according to NASA, requires a two-tier approach: mitigation and adaptation. Now that the sea level rise is inevitable, adaptation is the only possible reaction to our soon-to-be-submerged cities.
Read more:
These are the cities that will drown first as the seas rise - Salon
- High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic) - December 8th, 2016 [December 8th, 2016]
- U.S. High Seas Marine Text Forecasts by Area - December 10th, 2016 [December 10th, 2016]
- Global High Seas Marine Preserve A non-profit dedicted ... - February 2nd, 2017 [February 2nd, 2017]
- New centre for high seas visitors in Angus - The Courier - The Courier - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Naval Presence on High Seas Underscored - Financial Tribune - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Pirates Face Push Back On The High Seas - American Media Institute - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Queen Mary 2 to Host High Fashion on the High Seas - Cruise Hive - Cruise Hive - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Nigeria Rescues Oil Tanker From High-Seas Pirates - OilPrice.com - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Cabin cam shows the hilarious frustration of rolling on the high seas - Pickle - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Ransomware Gangs Have Become the High-Seas Pirates of the Internet - On the Wire (blog) - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Suspect in high-seas homicides hospitalized, putting case on hold - Sacramento Bee - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Gargrave Pantomime Group hit the high seas with Sinbad the Sailor - Craven Herald - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Sailing the high seas: Top cruises for first-timers, families and excursions in 2017 - Malay Mail Online - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- The Cold War returns to the high seas (opinion) - CNN.com - CNN - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- All aboard for Cosplay on the high seas, Latest Travel News - The ... - The New Paper - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- The Cold War returns to the high seas - CNN International - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Star-Studded Broadway on the High Seas 8 Sets Sail Feb. 17 - Playbill.com - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- 'The internet is like the high seas' - Deutsche Welle - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Sailing the high seas - Fiji Times - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- In Dramatic High Seas Rescue, Four Fishermen Rescued By Good Samaritans Off Galveston, Texas, Coast - Patch.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Greg McQuade discovers life on the high seas aboard USS Dwight D. Eisenhower - wtvr.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Escape to the high seas at the National Aviary - NEXTpittsburgh - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Ocean Prediction Center-Coastal, Offshore and High Seas ... - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Lagerstein hitting the high seas for Rum City - Bundaberg News Mail - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Scapa Flow German High Seas Fleet scrap sites explored - The ... - The Orcadian - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Two boats towed in harbor in high seas - Cayman Compass - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Take to the high seas with Condor Sailing Adventures - Pensacola News Journal - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- Aging high-seas murder suspect out of hospital and back in court - Sacramento Bee - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Masters of the waves talk of high seas, thrills & spills - The New Indian Express - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Campbell River Sea Cadet off to England to hit the high seas - Campbell River Mirror - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Survival on the high seas (From The Northern Echo) - The Northern Echo (registration) - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Industry 4.0 on the High Seas - MarineLink - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- New Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Trailer Brings Us More Action On The High Seas! - LRM Online (press release) (blog) - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Eco-warriors meet government authority on Ballina's high seas - Echonetdaily - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- Tech on the high seas: Fred Olsen IT chief chats cloud, connectivity and security - www.v3.co.uk - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Why newbie Drusilla is preparing for life on the high seas - The Wharf - The Wharf - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Bhang Travel Inc. Brings Cannabis Networking to the High Seas - PR Web (press release) - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Drama on the high seas: East Kilbride couple reveal dramatic rescue after boat sinks in Gulf - Scottish Daily Record - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Journey through the high seas - The Standard - March 10th, 2017 [March 10th, 2017]
- French, Irish yacht sailors survive high seas off Australia's coast - TRT World - March 10th, 2017 [March 10th, 2017]
- 3 Digital Marketing Lessons From a Lawyer Focused on the High Seas - Entrepreneur - March 11th, 2017 [March 11th, 2017]
- Captain Cannonball sails the high seas as a pirate - Destin.com - Destin Log and Walton Log - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- No clean boats on the high seas | Kochi News - Times of India - Times of India - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Trekr Racing makes its debut on the high seas - Washington Blade - Washington Blade - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Real 'Pirate Women' On The High Seas Of Old | On Point - WBUR - WBUR - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Cruise Operators Continue to Hide Behind the Death on the High ... - Cruise Law News - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Cruise ship crime: Who's in charge of law and order on the high seas? - Star2.com - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Footprints: PERIL ON THE HIGH SEAS - DAWN.com - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- You can gamble on the high seas out of Galveston, but it might not always be smooth sailing - Rare.us - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- An Energy Shock from the High Seas - Wall Street Journal (subscription) - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Navy dispatched 52 flotillas to high seas in 8 years - Mehr News Agency - English Version - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Barker and Team Japan ruling the high seas - Royal Gazette - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Hitting The High Seas: US LNG Finds A Home - Seeking Alpha - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- A U-Boat Strikes and Terror Follows on the High Seas - New York Times - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- HOPE LARSON and REBECCA MOCK Hit the High Seas with KNIFE'S EDGE - Newsarama - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- Geopolitics On The High Seas And In Today's Headlines | On Point - WBUR - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- World Oceans Day Comes at a Critical Time for High Seas - Natural Resources Defense Council - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- High seas force Durban beaches closure | Berea Mail - Berea Mail - June 9th, 2017 [June 9th, 2017]
- African states band together to defeat crime on high seas | News24 - News24 - June 10th, 2017 [June 10th, 2017]
- Handmade boat for the high seas - New Straits Times Online - June 12th, 2017 [June 12th, 2017]
- High Seas, High "C"s: "The Little Mermaid," at the Prospect Park Auditorium through June 18 - River Cities Reader - June 13th, 2017 [June 13th, 2017]
- 'Skull & Bones' takes open world online gaming to the high seas - Engadget - June 13th, 2017 [June 13th, 2017]
- The Electric, Driverless Revolution Is About to Hit the High Seas ... - Bloomberg - June 13th, 2017 [June 13th, 2017]
- Brazil Gets Ready to Fight on the High Seas and Sets Aside US$ 1.8 Bi for New Warships - Brazzil.com - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Skull and Bones is pure high seas sailing fun from Ubisoft - Critical Hit - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Disney PhotoPass coming to capture your high-seas adventure on Pirates of the Caribbean at Magic Kingdom - Inside the Magic - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Coast Guard unloads 18 tons of cocaine seized on the high seas - The San Diego Union-Tribune - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- High seas inspire collection - Royal Gazette - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- High Yields on the High Seas | Equities.com - Equities.com - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Spectacle on the high seas: The best boat races in the Caribbean - USA TODAY - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Taking the Fight to the High Seas with the Dutch Royal Navy - MMORPG.com (press release) (registration) (blog) - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- Big waves close coastal walkway, but some still brave stormy seas - Taranaki Daily News - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- Seniors make waves with high-seas whodunit - Simi Valley Acorn - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- High seas adventures at the Hannibal Aquatic Center - Hannibal.net - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- Come See the Value Opportunities I Saw on the High Seas - TheStreet.com - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- High seas adventures at the Hannibal Aquatic Center - Columbia Daily Tribune - June 27th, 2017 [June 27th, 2017]
- Slovenia wins battle with Croatia over high seas access - BBC News - June 30th, 2017 [June 30th, 2017]
- Arbitration panel grants Slovenia access to high seas - Fox News - July 2nd, 2017 [July 2nd, 2017]
- High Seas Governance Must Take Account of Existing IMO Framework - Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - July 14th, 2017 [July 14th, 2017]
- An app to track missing people on high seas - Times of India - July 14th, 2017 [July 14th, 2017]