There are three scenarios at play – Press of Atlantic City

There are three options at play. However, there is still much to be figured out. If the storm makes landfall before reaching New Jersey, that will weaken the storm, and vice versa. The first two scenarios are favored, with the third one looking less and less likely.

Option 1:

The European model from Wednesday night is a good representation of what scenario 1 would look like. The center of the storm is well out to sea.

Tropical Storm Isaias stays 200 to 300 miles out to sea, passing between late Monday and early Wednesday.

Spotty, but heavy, rain bands will pass. Winds would be gusty, but likely would not be enough to bring damage.

The real concerns would be out on the water. Given the full moon Monday and the onshore winds. Multiple rounds of minor or moderate coastal flooding would be likely. High seas would be present, with dangerous rip currents, too. During Tropical Storm Fay, a teenage lost his life in Ventnor while swimming with two friends the evening of the storm. In Ocean City, two 18-year-old girls were brought to shore by city police the following morning.

A heat wave that drives you to the shore, warm water temperature that draws you to the surf

Option 2:

The storm hugs the Jersey Shore. While the western side of the storm is usually the safer side, since the winds around the counter-clockwise spinning system goes against the northerly direction of the storm's movement, worse impacts than option 1 are possible.

Flooding rain, damaging winds at the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents and high seas will all be likely.

This being said, a track coast to the close would likely mean land interaction with North Carolina. If that happens, the storm would weaken. This could mean the difference between a strong tropical storm and weak, less organized one.

The Global Forecast System, American, model paints this picture. Though, note that the exact track of the storm should not be paid attention to. Rather, note how organized the storm is.

The GFS model shows the worst of the storm offshore. However, a shift just 50 miles to the east would bring tropical storm force sustained winds to the shore. Emergency personnel will not respond to a 9-1-1 call when winds are above tropical storm force.

Option 3:

Isaias makes landfall in Florida or the Southeastern United States and the center of the storm passes to the west of the state. That is illustrated on the western edge of the forecast cone.

The storm would likely be a remnants storm by then, or perhaps a Tropical Depression. However, flooding rains, some coastal flooding, dangerous seas, rip currents and high surf would be likely.

The Canadian weather forecast model from Wednesday night. Note the center of the storm is well inland and would likely be a remants storm, or a tropical depression by then.

Continued here:

There are three scenarios at play - Press of Atlantic City

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