Small surface ships will struggle in high seas
The sea is a tough place, and, given that stormy seas often damage ships and endanger sailors, the U.S. Navy has habitually worked to keep vessels out of harms way since 1944. But over the past 30 years the Navy became so risk-averse that it has kept surface ships out of several strategic-but-stormy seas for decades.
That retreatand the general loss of sustained heavy-weather experience by the cost-conscious post-Cold War U.S. Navyhas had real consequences. As the memory of sustained, stormy weather operations faded under the weight of a tough anti-terror operational tempo, the number of U.S. sailors and other naval tastemakers who understood that battle in high seas demanded ships with particular sea-keeping features dwindled away.
A troubling indication of that can be seen in Secretary of Defense Mark T. Espers February 27 letter to House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith, in which he argued for more smaller surface combatants; greater reliance on lightly and optionally-manned ships. Do he and other similarly minded policymakers understand that they may be arguing for a fleet that will be more effective fighting from a pier than out in the contested seas the future Navy is meant to secure?
Sea States Mattered:
Up until a little more than 18 months ago, almost an entire generation of U.S. sailors lacked experience sailing in the rough seas north of the Arctic Circle. In late 2018, Carrier Strike Group Eight was the first U.S. aircraft carrier battle group to operate in the Norwegian Sea in 27 years. The experiencealong with several othersshowed that the Navy had lost a lot of old operational secrets and practices needed to project power in stormy weather.
The same can be said for design. Back in the Cold War, naval designers grew surface combatants to, in part, better prosecute combat in the high seas. The enormous displacement of an old Cold War mainstay, the Spruance class destroyer, was controversial. At over 8,000 tons, the Spruance was twice that of Americas previous front-line destroyer, the Charles F. Adams class.
But back in the early 1980s, when the U.S. Navy was a bit more concerned about the impact of storms and high seas upon the operational capability of U.S. Navy ships, studies cautioned that even the Spruance Class destroyers were only fully operable 80 percent of the time at Sea State 5 and barely operable 20 percent of the time at Sea State 6.
Cold War naval designers had super-sized the destroyer, to, in part, fight better in high sea states. But while Americas giant nuclear carriers were barely affected by heavy seas, their escortseven the big new Spruance class destroyersstill struggled to remain effective.
Smaller ships have plenty of opportunities to struggle in high seas; in the open ocean of the Northern Hemisphere, Navy studies from 1982 estimated that the probability of seas of Sea State 6 or higher was almost 27 percent. The probability of Sea State 5 or higher was almost 50 percent. This was reflected in choices the Navy made as the Cold War wound down. The Navy shed frigates and other small ships at an enormous rate while retaining the Arleigh Burke class, a destroyer even larger than the Spruance class.
Sea States Still Matter:
Thanks to the end of the Cold War and comprehensive meteorological guidance, Navy ships couldand didset their courses for the best weather possible. With no threat, such risk avoidance made sense. And as China and Russia emerge, the Navy can no longer plan on operating in calm seas. The Navy must go to where the war isand today, as storms are becoming stronger and more frequent, the chances of a fight in higher, rougher seas will only increase.
Meanwhile, Pentagon technologists like Secretary of Defense Mark Esperan Army veteran, who, as Secretary of the Army, urged the a-strategic dismantling of the Armys sea transport wingis extolling the virtues of the low-cost, small ship Navy. Does the Secretary of Defenseor the Deputy Secretary of Defense, David L. Norquist, who has been charged to lead a comprehensive review and analysis of the Navys proposed future fleet force structure, actually understand the tradeoff between vessel size and high-seas effectiveness?
Certainly, frigates and small ships are usefulthe Navy needs a far wider variety of vessels to supplement Americas large-ship Navy. But fundamental systems engineering questions risk being overlooked in the rush to propose exciting and fundable small-ship concepts. Right now, Washington think tanks are proposing fun-sounding baubles like 2,000 ton minimally manned vessels to serve as floating arsenals for carrier strike groups without really digging into the nitty-gritty operational feasibility of such new schemes.
The question is simple. If an 8,000 ton destroyer is unable to fully operate in Sea State 5 or higher, how well will a far more sophisticated and delicate 2,000 ton optionally-manned missile boat be ready to fight? How will these small vessels keep up with the carrier strike groups they are charged to defend? Have the sensitive technologies necessary for these small ships to fight actually been developed, optimized and tested in real-world sea conditions that a small ship will experience?
Theres a reason why U.S. Navy surface combatants have gotten so bigits because they need to do a lot of complex warfighting-oriented things. They must keep up with the carriers they defend and they need to be operational at high seas. Small ships can do lots of similar things too, but they cannot do as well at keeping up with an aircraft carrier in high seas and will have a hard time being operational in even ubiquitous mid-sized seas.
Small vessels are finebut they are no panacea. When the seas are big, the lighter, smaller and cheaper fleets favored by budget-minded technocrats risk becoming ineffective. For navies under threat, high seas are an immutable and unavoidable fact of life that must be sailed through no matter what. But, for the past thirty years, the U.S. Navy has avoided high seas and forgotten a lot. And even worse, now that a former Army paratrooper and a Certified Government Financial Manager are poised to fundamentally reshape the U.S. Navy, the Navy itself is poorly positioned to even try to express the deep operational risks posed by dramatic changes in naval composition.
In this headlong rush to leverage new technologies and hot new concepts, the fancy powerpoint slides that point the Pentagon towards a cheap, pint-sized and optionally-manned fleet still has a long way to go before being converted into operational reality. In particular, the Navy needs to explain these operational challenges to David Norquist. If they dont, David Norquist will do what his brother, Grover Norquist, could not. While Grover Norquist has failed in his quest to reduce the U.S. Government to the size where he can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub, Grovers highly-regarded brotherif allowed to make decisions based largely on accounting principles and exciting powerpoint conceptsmay be set to do just that very thing to the U.S. Navy.
Continued here:
The U.S. Navys Future Fleet May Run Aground In Heavy Weather - Forbes
- High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic) - December 8th, 2016 [December 8th, 2016]
- U.S. High Seas Marine Text Forecasts by Area - December 10th, 2016 [December 10th, 2016]
- Global High Seas Marine Preserve A non-profit dedicted ... - February 2nd, 2017 [February 2nd, 2017]
- New centre for high seas visitors in Angus - The Courier - The Courier - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Naval Presence on High Seas Underscored - Financial Tribune - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Pirates Face Push Back On The High Seas - American Media Institute - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Queen Mary 2 to Host High Fashion on the High Seas - Cruise Hive - Cruise Hive - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Nigeria Rescues Oil Tanker From High-Seas Pirates - OilPrice.com - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Cabin cam shows the hilarious frustration of rolling on the high seas - Pickle - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Ransomware Gangs Have Become the High-Seas Pirates of the Internet - On the Wire (blog) - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Suspect in high-seas homicides hospitalized, putting case on hold - Sacramento Bee - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Gargrave Pantomime Group hit the high seas with Sinbad the Sailor - Craven Herald - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Sailing the high seas: Top cruises for first-timers, families and excursions in 2017 - Malay Mail Online - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- The Cold War returns to the high seas (opinion) - CNN.com - CNN - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- All aboard for Cosplay on the high seas, Latest Travel News - The ... - The New Paper - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- The Cold War returns to the high seas - CNN International - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Star-Studded Broadway on the High Seas 8 Sets Sail Feb. 17 - Playbill.com - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- 'The internet is like the high seas' - Deutsche Welle - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Sailing the high seas - Fiji Times - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- In Dramatic High Seas Rescue, Four Fishermen Rescued By Good Samaritans Off Galveston, Texas, Coast - Patch.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Greg McQuade discovers life on the high seas aboard USS Dwight D. Eisenhower - wtvr.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Escape to the high seas at the National Aviary - NEXTpittsburgh - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Ocean Prediction Center-Coastal, Offshore and High Seas ... - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Lagerstein hitting the high seas for Rum City - Bundaberg News Mail - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Scapa Flow German High Seas Fleet scrap sites explored - The ... - The Orcadian - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Two boats towed in harbor in high seas - Cayman Compass - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Take to the high seas with Condor Sailing Adventures - Pensacola News Journal - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- Aging high-seas murder suspect out of hospital and back in court - Sacramento Bee - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Masters of the waves talk of high seas, thrills & spills - The New Indian Express - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Campbell River Sea Cadet off to England to hit the high seas - Campbell River Mirror - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Survival on the high seas (From The Northern Echo) - The Northern Echo (registration) - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Industry 4.0 on the High Seas - MarineLink - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- New Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Trailer Brings Us More Action On The High Seas! - LRM Online (press release) (blog) - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Eco-warriors meet government authority on Ballina's high seas - Echonetdaily - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- Tech on the high seas: Fred Olsen IT chief chats cloud, connectivity and security - www.v3.co.uk - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Why newbie Drusilla is preparing for life on the high seas - The Wharf - The Wharf - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Bhang Travel Inc. Brings Cannabis Networking to the High Seas - PR Web (press release) - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Drama on the high seas: East Kilbride couple reveal dramatic rescue after boat sinks in Gulf - Scottish Daily Record - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Journey through the high seas - The Standard - March 10th, 2017 [March 10th, 2017]
- French, Irish yacht sailors survive high seas off Australia's coast - TRT World - March 10th, 2017 [March 10th, 2017]
- 3 Digital Marketing Lessons From a Lawyer Focused on the High Seas - Entrepreneur - March 11th, 2017 [March 11th, 2017]
- Captain Cannonball sails the high seas as a pirate - Destin.com - Destin Log and Walton Log - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- No clean boats on the high seas | Kochi News - Times of India - Times of India - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Trekr Racing makes its debut on the high seas - Washington Blade - Washington Blade - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Real 'Pirate Women' On The High Seas Of Old | On Point - WBUR - WBUR - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Cruise Operators Continue to Hide Behind the Death on the High ... - Cruise Law News - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Cruise ship crime: Who's in charge of law and order on the high seas? - Star2.com - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Footprints: PERIL ON THE HIGH SEAS - DAWN.com - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- You can gamble on the high seas out of Galveston, but it might not always be smooth sailing - Rare.us - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- An Energy Shock from the High Seas - Wall Street Journal (subscription) - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Navy dispatched 52 flotillas to high seas in 8 years - Mehr News Agency - English Version - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Barker and Team Japan ruling the high seas - Royal Gazette - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Hitting The High Seas: US LNG Finds A Home - Seeking Alpha - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- A U-Boat Strikes and Terror Follows on the High Seas - New York Times - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- HOPE LARSON and REBECCA MOCK Hit the High Seas with KNIFE'S EDGE - Newsarama - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- Geopolitics On The High Seas And In Today's Headlines | On Point - WBUR - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- World Oceans Day Comes at a Critical Time for High Seas - Natural Resources Defense Council - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- High seas force Durban beaches closure | Berea Mail - Berea Mail - June 9th, 2017 [June 9th, 2017]
- African states band together to defeat crime on high seas | News24 - News24 - June 10th, 2017 [June 10th, 2017]
- Handmade boat for the high seas - New Straits Times Online - June 12th, 2017 [June 12th, 2017]
- High Seas, High "C"s: "The Little Mermaid," at the Prospect Park Auditorium through June 18 - River Cities Reader - June 13th, 2017 [June 13th, 2017]
- 'Skull & Bones' takes open world online gaming to the high seas - Engadget - June 13th, 2017 [June 13th, 2017]
- The Electric, Driverless Revolution Is About to Hit the High Seas ... - Bloomberg - June 13th, 2017 [June 13th, 2017]
- Brazil Gets Ready to Fight on the High Seas and Sets Aside US$ 1.8 Bi for New Warships - Brazzil.com - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Skull and Bones is pure high seas sailing fun from Ubisoft - Critical Hit - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Disney PhotoPass coming to capture your high-seas adventure on Pirates of the Caribbean at Magic Kingdom - Inside the Magic - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Coast Guard unloads 18 tons of cocaine seized on the high seas - The San Diego Union-Tribune - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- High seas inspire collection - Royal Gazette - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- High Yields on the High Seas | Equities.com - Equities.com - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Spectacle on the high seas: The best boat races in the Caribbean - USA TODAY - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Taking the Fight to the High Seas with the Dutch Royal Navy - MMORPG.com (press release) (registration) (blog) - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- Big waves close coastal walkway, but some still brave stormy seas - Taranaki Daily News - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- Seniors make waves with high-seas whodunit - Simi Valley Acorn - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- High seas adventures at the Hannibal Aquatic Center - Hannibal.net - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- Come See the Value Opportunities I Saw on the High Seas - TheStreet.com - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- High seas adventures at the Hannibal Aquatic Center - Columbia Daily Tribune - June 27th, 2017 [June 27th, 2017]
- Slovenia wins battle with Croatia over high seas access - BBC News - June 30th, 2017 [June 30th, 2017]
- Arbitration panel grants Slovenia access to high seas - Fox News - July 2nd, 2017 [July 2nd, 2017]
- High Seas Governance Must Take Account of Existing IMO Framework - Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - July 14th, 2017 [July 14th, 2017]
- An app to track missing people on high seas - Times of India - July 14th, 2017 [July 14th, 2017]